Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Tuesday.
Fitness unlikely to prove a problem for returning Supervisor
SUPERVISOR hasn't been seen since disappointing at Ffos Las in April but it would be a surprise were a lack of fitness to prove an issue in the three-mile handicap chase (13:20) at Warwick.
Supervisor won on his return from a nine-month break at Ludlow last season and he probably would have won on his reappearance at the same venue in the previous campaign had he not fallen four out when going best at the time.
It perhaps shouldn't be a surprise that he has shown a tendency to run well fresh as his trainer Venetia Williams' horses are usually fit enough to do themselves justice.
Since the start of the 2019/20 season, Williams has had 58 winners at a 21.48% strike rate with handicap chasers returning from a layoff of 150 days or longer. The trainer with the next highest number of winners with such types is Paul Nicholls with 32 at a strike rate of 16.3%.
Williams also tops the list based on level-stake profit, when dealing with trainers with a minimum of 20 runners, as backing all her handicap chasers returning from 150 days off or longer since the start of the 2019/20 season would have generated a profit of £81.84 to £1 stakes.
Elliott bidding to enhance superb record in Punchestown juvenile hurdle
Gordon Elliott has won the juvenile hurdle (13:35) on Punchestown's New Year's Eve card six times in the last ten years and he was responsible for the runner-up a couple of times when he failed to win.
Elliott has won this race with some talented juveniles, including Pied Piper who beat subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Vauban, so his representatives in this contest are always worthy of close attention.
This year he saddles CHORTAL, a lightly raced maiden on the Flat for the Gosdens who was purchased for 40,000 guineas and shaped with encouragement when fourth on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse this month. He is entitled to progress with that experience under his belt and still has the Timeform 'small p' to show he's likely to do better.
Elliott is also responsible for one of the reserves, San Hilario, who refused to race on his Flat debut for Hugo Merienne in France but was runner-up at Mont-de-Marsan on his other outing for that yard.
Joseph O'Brien, who doesn't have a representative here, has been the trainer to follow in juvenile hurdles in Ireland this season with nine winners at an impressive 26.5% strike rate, though Elliott won the juvenile maiden at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival with Wendrock.
Royal Champion has clear edge on form in Lingfield feature
The listed Quebec Stakes (13:44) takes centre stage on Lingfield's nine-race card on New Year's Eve and last year's winner Tyrrhenian Sea is bidding to retain his title.
Tyrrhenian Sea again arrives on the back of an encouraging placed effort in the Churchill Stakes - which this time took place at Newcastle rather than Lingfield - but he looks to be facing a formidable foe this time around in a horse who will be familiar to trainer Roger Varian.
ROYAL CHAMPION is making his first start for Karl Burke following an unsuccessful three-race spell for Anthony and Sam Freedman during the recent Spring Carnival in Australia, but he had shown very smart form for Varian in 2023, notably winning the listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He ran to a similar level when runner-up in the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine on his final start for Varian in 2023 and is 9 lb clear at the head of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for this listed event. There's clearly a bit of a question whether, rising seven, he'll be able to recapture the pick of his form, but he has a healthy cushion.
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