Andrew Asquith presents the Timeform view of the key things to note on the racing front on Sunday.
Brighterdaysahead vs State Man: The rematch
Willie Mullins has farmed the Neville Hotels Hurdle (14:30) in recent years, winning the last six renewals, the last two of those with State Man, and they will be hoping to exact revenge on Brighterdaysahead, who came out on top in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last month.
Brighterdaysahead is clearly a progressive mare, her sole defeat under Rules coming in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season, and produced a career-best effort to lower the colours of State Man at Punchestown.
However, she did have race fitness on her side that day, having won a Grade 3 on her return, and you do have to question whether she can uphold that form now given State Man will be all the sharper.
State Man is a prolific hurdler in his own right, not to mention his victory in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season, and met with defeat for just the second time in his last 14 starts in the Morgiana.
He still ran to a level which would have landed many a Grade 1, too, travelling well for much of the contest, and a final-flight blunder also didn’t help his claims. State Man was headed on the run-in when having nothing more left to give, but that outing will have put an edge on him, and he’ll surely land more top-level races this season – he must have an excellent chance of doing so here.
Follow Nicholls handicap chase debutants
Over the last five seasons, Paul Nicholls can boast a 24% strike rate with horses making their handicap chase debut, and Insurrection, who goes in the Download The At The Races App Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (12:27) at Doncaster can further bolster that record.
He was fairly useful over hurdles, winning twice in that sphere last season, but has always appealed as the type who will make up into an even better chaser (he’s a winning Irish pointer), and he shaped with plenty of promise on his chase debut at Chepstow in October.
That run came when the Nicholls yard was under a bit of a cloud, but he showed plenty to work on, produced a few novicey mistakes, though he was beaten only by another promising newcomer to fences in the shape of Springwell Bay.
Insurrection went backwards form that run when beaten over 30 lengths in the Rising Stars Novices' Chase at Wincanton last time, despite having finished in front of the winner of that race at Chepstow.
That clearly wasn’t his true running and, based on the figure he ran to on his debut in this sphere, along with some of his hurdles form, an opening mark of 135 may well underestimate him. He tops Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and much better is expected now.
Note Cromwell runner in Doncaster Listed event
Gavin Cromwell doesn’t have many runners at Doncaster, but he does have a 20% strike rate at the track, and he won this race 12 months ago with Limerick Lace, who went on to win the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
That therefore makes Brides Hill of particular interest in the Download The Raceday Ready App Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares Chase (13:38).
She is building an excellent record over fences, winning all of her last six completed starts, and she produced a big career-best effort when winning a Grade 2 at the Punchestown Festival on her final start.
Admittedly, it wasn’t a deep race for the grade, but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of Brides Hill’s success, jumping well in the main and drawing well clear from the second-last to record a bloodless victory.
It wasn’t her fault that the race fell apart around her and she looks the class act in this field on her return to action. She missed the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season due to the ground, but that race will likely be high on her agenda, and it is hard to see past her on her return to action.
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