Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Monday.
Henderson the man to follow again at Warwick
Monday’s card at Warwick has been a happy hunting ground in recent years for Nicky Henderson, with notable wins including those for Fixe Le Kap (2016) and Laskadine (2019) in the juvenile hurdle, Theatre Glory (2022) and Either Or (2024) in the mares’ novices’ hurdle, and Fantastic Lady (2022) in the novices’ handicap chase.
Indeed, Henderson’s overall strike-rate at the Warwickshire venue is 25% with 112 winners from 456 runners, and the yard will be on a high at present following weekend graded wins for Jonbon and Jingko Blue alongside the very encouraging winning stable debut of Triumph favourite Lulamba.
As you’d expect, the Seven Barrows runners on Monday’s card demand the utmost respect, with C&D winner That’s Nice on a retrieval mission at 12:35 following a disappointing effort up in grade/down in trip at Cheltenham last time. These are calmer waters and it looks a good opportunity for the clear top-rated runner to bounce back.
Mistress Emma (13:05) showed aptitude when ¾-length second to King Califet at Newbury on her hurdling debut, left in second at the last but closing all the way to the line, so she should prove at home over this three-furlong-longer trip, while Southoftheborder makes his return to action in the novices’ handicap chase at 13:35.
It is one of the most competitive races on the card, but it looks significant that this talented hurdler (may well have won a Grade 2 on just his second start over obstacles but for unseating his rider two out) is quickly sent over fences; a BHA mark of 126 may be seen as lenient, though whether Southoftheborder will have enough in hand to topple the top-rated ‘Horse In Focus’ Leader In The Park remains to be seen.
Return to Ayr a boost for Hammond representative
Foster’sisland is allotted the Timeform ‘Horses For Courses’ flag upon his return to Ayr at 14:52, as Micky Hammond’s 10-year-old searches for a third success at the track, with his overall figures at Ayr reading 1-1-2-3.
Broadening that theme, six of his seven career victories have come on relatively tight, left-handed tracks (Ayr, Bangor, Kelso and Newcastle), with the sole outlier being a comprehensive success at Carlisle when he had plenty in hand in terms of his handicap mark.
On that subject, Foster’sisland is now 1 lb lower in the handicap than for his most recent success, and has shaped in two of his three starts this term that a return to the winner’s enclosure won’t be far away.
He faces some interesting rivals here, most notably the unexposed pair of Nab Wood and the three-years-younger Golden Maverick, but a return to Ayrshire should see a season’s best effort.
Well-bred sort taken to improve at Kempton
Utilising Timeform’s horse racing statistics page, we can quickly see that Andrew Balding’s stable is only bettered by three others in terms of overall form at present, with the Kingsclere stable currently operating at a Run To Form (RTF) figure of 69.12%.
Though the strike-rate of 14.71% may not stand out, the RTF figure gives a clearer indication of the rude health of the yard at this early stage of 2025, which is on a par with its record in 2021 (18%) and 2024 (16%), but not as good as 2022 (21%) or 2023 (26%).
Clearly, there is scope for more success in January, and one who could improve the ratio is Commendation in the 17:45 at Kempton. She is the first foal of Praised, a half-sister to Dewhurst/2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean, as well as Alkumait (6f 2yo Group 2 winner) and Get Ahead (6f Listed winner).
Sent off at 28/1, 16/1 and 28/1 in her three starts to date, the well-bred filly makes her handicap debut here from a lowly mark of 64 and should be race-fit following her outing over seven furlongs at Southwell at the end of last month, her first start for three months.
Should the betting agree, a more polished and profitable performance could easily be in the offing.
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