Tony McFadden outlines the Timeform view on the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday.
Ratings suggest Ultima form could be key
Johnnywho and Jagwar fought out the finish to the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival - a contest Corach Rambler used as the springboard to success at Aintree three years ago - and that race could again have a key bearing on the Grand National.
In finishing first and second in a competitive handicap at racing's most prestigious jumps meeting, Johnnywho and Jagwar both showed improved form. However, as the weights for the Grand National were already released and no penalties apply, the BHA handicapper has been unable to take that Cheltenham form into account and the pair can run off the same marks as in the Ultima.
The result is that Johnnywho (184) and Jagwar (183) top Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National.
McManus has strength in depth to his team
Johnnywho and Jagwar both carry the famous green and gold hoops of JP McManus who is bidding to become the first owner to win the Grand National four times.
He has a powerful six-strong team which includes one of his previous winners of the race, I Am Maximus (177+). I Am Maximus put up one of the best winning performances in the race's recent history when storming seven and a half lengths clear two years ago, and he then produced an even better effort in defeat, by Timeform's reckoning, when runner-up to stablemate Nick Rockett 12 months ago.
I Am Maximus, who runs off a BHA mark 1 lb higher than last year, is again the choice of Willie Mullins' stable jockey Paul Townend who had a Cheltenham Festival to remember last month when winning the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup. I Am Maximus, the long-time favourite, is aiming to become the first Grand National winner to regain his crown since the legendary Red Rum did so in 1977. That was also the last time the topweight won the Grand National, though Nick Rockett carried 11st 8lb last year and Many Clouds had 11st 9lb when successful in 2015.
Also prominent in the betting among McManus's team is last year's fourth Iroko (179) and the handicap chase debutant Oscars Brother (178), who is one of only two novices in the line-up along with Spanish Harlem (though Spanish Harlem is only technically a novice as he's in his third season over fences).
The biggest-priced contender of McManus's sextet is Perceval Legallois (181), the mount of Harry Cobden who will be the owner's retained jockey next season. Perceval Legallois may be a 33/1 shot on the back of a very quiet campaign comprising only a couple of starts, but it's worth remembering he was 10/1 and third choice in the market when falling in last year's Grand National. He looks on a fair mark and comes out behind only Johnnywho and Jagwar on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings.
Gigginstown also bidding to become winning-most owners
Michael O'Leary's Gigginstown House Stud have also won the Grand National three times, with two of those victories provided by Tiger Roll, the only multiple winner of the National since Red Rum.
Tiger Roll was trained by Gordon Elliott who sends out Stellar Story (179) and Favori de Champdou (178) in the Gigginstown colours this year. Both are big prices but they are live contenders with something to recommend them.
Stellar Story was a smart hurdler who took the notable scalp of The Jukebox Man when landing the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of seasons ago. He's come up short at the top level over fences, but he has posted some creditable efforts, most notably when runner-up in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last year, and he makes his handicap debut here.
Favori de Champdou is one of only two 11-year-olds in the field - Twig is the other - but he has proved as good as ever this season, winning the ultra-competitive Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown before landing a Cross Country Chase on Trials Day and then running even better in defeat behind Final Orders in a similar event at the Cheltenham Festival.
Gigginstown's other runner is the Willie Mullins-trained Quai de Bourbon (176) who finished third in the Irish Grand National last season.
Timeform Analyst's Verdict
Willie Mullins saddled an unprecedented 1-2-3 in this 12 months ago and it's possible J P McManus could repeat the feat as an owner, so strong is his hand this year. JOHNNYWHO and Jagwar are both ahead of their marks after finishing 1-2 in the Ultima at Cheltenham and can lead home 2024 winner I Am Maximus. Perceval Legallois is yet another likely type in the famous green and gold silks, while, at bigger odds, Gorgeous Tom and Favori de Champdou also have plenty to recommend them.
1. Johnnywho
2. Jagwar
3. I Am Maximus
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
184 Johhnywho
183 Jagwar
181 Perceval Legallois
180 Final Orders
180 Panic Attack
179 Monty's Star
179 Iroko
179 Stellar Story
178 Gorgeous Tom
178 Imperial Saint
178 Oscars Brother
178 Firefox
178 Favori de Champdou
177+ I Am Maximus
177 Champ Kiely
177 Grangeclare West
177 Amirite
176 Beauport
176 Three Card Brag
176 Quai de Bourbon
175 Haiti Couleurs
175 Lecky Watson
175§ Top of The Bill
175? Mr Vango
175? High Class Hero
175? The Real Whacker
174 Spanish Harlem
174 Banbridge
174 Marble Sands
174 Twig
174 Captain Cody
173+ Gerri Colombe
172 Answer To Kayf
166+ Jordans
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
