Timeform's Adam Houghton reflects on the publication of the leading two-year-old classifications from 2020.
St Mark’s Basilica, who had already been confirmed as Timeform’s highest-rated two-year-old of 2020, earned another accolade on Wednesday when he was announced as the champion two-year-old in the European Classifications.
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, St Mark’s Basilica earned a rating of 120 in the European Classifications for his victory in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on his final start. That was good enough to see him take top billing, just ahead of Supremacy (118), who won the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, and Wembley (118), who filled the runner-up spot behind stablemate St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst.
Wembley was the only one of the top seven in the European Classifications not to win a Group 1 last season. The others who did were National Stakes winner Thunder Moon (117) – who subsequently finished third in the Dewhurst – Phoenix Stakes winner Lucky Vega (116), Futurity Trophy winner Mac Swiney (116) and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Sealiway (116).
It makes for an interesting study to compare how these rankings stand up against those compiled by Timeform in the two-year-old division in 2020. Admittedly, there are no major differences at the very top – Timeform’s six highest-rated two-year-olds all come from the group already mentioned, with Mac Swiney (ranked tenth with Timeform) being the one to miss out.
There is a bit more variation as you go down the list, though, notably in the case of Battleground, a stablemate of St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley who didn’t even make the top 20 in the European Classifications with a rating of 112.
By contrast, Battleground is ranked joint-seventh with Timeform after a promising two-year-old campaign in which he won both the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. He was then was forced to miss the National Stakes but reappeared in the autumn with a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland, where he did well to be beaten only three lengths after conceding first run to the winner.
By War Front out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Found, Battleground looks sure to go on improving in 2021, though O’Brien raised the possibility that he could miss the 2000 Guineas to go for an easier race before a tilt at the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when asked about his prospects during a conference call to promote the release of the European Classifications.
Another Ballydoyle inmate to generate plenty of discussion was High Definition, who was eighth in the European Classifications with a rating of 115, which he earned when following up his maiden success with an unlikely last-to-first win in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.
“I think High Definition is probably one of the more exciting horses we discussed in terms of the Classification,” said IHRB Handicapper Mark Bird. “We generally try to be as literal as possible in terms of margins and what we allow for margins, but I think to some degree we pushed the boat out a little bit on this one’s rating. We allowed 4 lb for his three-quarters-of-a-length victory in the Beresford Stakes.
“He was around seven lengths off the pace three furlongs out and being pushed along, but, once he did find his stride, he really motored home and was going away at the finish. The time of that race wasn’t particularly impressive, but, for those who are interested in sectional times, you could mark it up quite considerably I think. We were keen to allow for a little bit more than the bare margin in that respect.”
Incidentally, High Definition didn’t feature amongst the top 20 two-year-olds on Timeform ratings in 2020, but the large ‘P’ attached to his rating denotes that he is likely to prove capable of significantly better than he has shown so far, especially when getting the opportunity to tackle middle-distances in 2021. In terms of targets, O’Brien suggested that High Definition would “probably be a shorter price to go to a Derby trial than the 2000 Guineas”.
As for the two-year-old fillies, it was a three-way tie at the top of the European Classifications between Campanelle, Pretty Gorgeous and Shale, all of whom achieved a rating of 113.
This was a rather different view to that taken by Timeform, who had Campanelle as the clear leader in the division after her decisive defeat of the colts in the Prix Morny at Deauville. She then looked stretched by the longer trip when only fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf at Keeneland, so it was no surprise to hear Wesley Ward say that he is planning to drop her back to six furlongs in 2021, with the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot likely to be her main target.
Timeform also have Pretty Gorgeous rated comfortably superior to Shale, despite the score between them in four meetings standing at two wins apiece, with Shale’s big day coming when landing the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh (by three quarters of a length from Pretty Gorgeous).
The reason for this is that the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket won by Pretty Gorgeous is simply a much stronger piece of form, with the excellent time recorded by the winner providing plenty of substance. The runner-up Indigo Girl and third Mother Earth are also rated higher than Shale with Timeform, along with the Cheveley Park Stakes winner Alcohol Free and French Group 2 winner Plainchant.
