Timefigure analysis after Classic trials at Newmarket and Newbury

Oxagon not a given to confirm Craven form

The turf Flat season is finally up and running domestically after a week of Classic trials and always informative minor events at Newmarket and Newbury and as usual several of the results gave plenty of food for thought.

The Gosden yard had an outstanding week, winning one of the recognised trials (Craven Stakes) with Oxagon whose performance was one of several in the week that seemingly underlined the merit of the Dewhurst form, but they also won four minor contests (three with newcomers) by an astonishing combined total of 17 lengths.

Before getting round to them, as well as the unbeaten French filly Gilded Prize who is now one of the co-second favourites for the Oaks after winning last week’s Prix Cleopatre, just a note that there have been two projects worked on at Timeform over the winter that will influence the figures given out in this column this season.

The first is another overhaul of the weight-for-age table that addressed several areas of increasing concern, most relevant so far as this column is concerned the insufficient ‘maturity’ awarded juveniles at seven and eight furlongs in the first half of the season which inflated their timefigures, while the second is the continued development of a more rounded sectional upgrade model that incorporates data from several finishing points and better measures finishing efforts in races that don’t begin until very late while also downgrading upgrades achieved in races where the pace is suspected to have been overly strong (because those races were returning good timefigures anyway).

I read over the weekend a review that suggested if you want to find the winner of the 2000 Guineas next month then you need to look no further than last season’s Dewhurst. The cynic or realist in me tends to think that if the Dewhurst fifth Oxagon can win the Craven, albeit with a bit of improvement in first-time cheekpieces, and Dewhurst sixth Alparslan can win the Greenham (from Dewhurst fourth Zavateri) then both recognised trials this year probably lacked depth and that’s certainly that’s how the markets see it with Oxagon a best-priced 16/1 for the 2000 and Alparslan and Zavateri both 25/1.

Oxagon had run a 105 timefigure in the Dewhurst prior to floundering in the mud in the Futurity at Doncaster but posted only an 87 here in a race he dictated and even the best of his upgrades calculated across the last three furlongs bump that figure up by 5lb.

He won by two lengths, though whether he would confirm form next time with runner-up Avicenna who earned a bigger upgrade having dropped back markedly at halfway as the pace moved up a gear before running green while closing nicely is questionable. Favourite Hidden Force, who’d returned in the same Kempton novice the yard had chosen for subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and high-class miler Opera Ballo in the last two years, was sent off favourite but once again suggested he’s some way off the top level albeit the track and trip (too short) were probably against him here.

Like Oxagon, Alparslan made all in the Greenham, gradually making his way across to the stand rail before maintaining a sound gallop to see off the short-of-room Zavateri and keen-going Albert Einstein who showed nothing like the sort of spectacular speed he’s supposed to show at home, looking to get outpaced for a while before coming with a short-lived effort. A finishing time slower than the opening Fred Darling credits Alparslan with a 100 timefigure, pretty much the same as he achieved in the Dewhurst after a 3lb upgrade is added on from two furlongs out, but perhaps the most interesting of all going forward is fourth-placed Needle Match whose final furlong upgrade was the fastest of all (6lb) and who only got himself into such a poor position through obvious inexperience and a poorly-crafted passage through the race. He’s clearly very promising.

Reviewing the evidence and reminding myself that the Guineas are effectively the final juvenile Group 1 races of the following season I’m inclined to think the 2000 is probably bound for one who didn’t run at either Newmarket or Newbury last week. That horse may be Dewhurst third Distant Storm, so impressive in the Tattersalls Stakes on his previous start given runner-up Gstaad seems set to go to France, but it could also be Royal Lodge winner Bow Echo or Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Puerto Rico. I was very strong on Puerto Rico in this column last year and he’d be my pick if I had to make one.

Nothing screams Guineas from fillies' trials

As mentioned, the Fred Darling was run in a faster time than the Greenham – 0.1 second to be exact - and was won by Sukanya who scored at the track on her debut and three starts later finished second, albeit comfortably held, in a Listed race at Leopardstown won by Diamond Necklace.

The Fred Darling was very much one of quantity over quality, however, with just three holding a Guineas entry and one of the trio who has, runner-up Touleen, is another from the week’s trials who might have to have targets tweaked after failing to produce the acceleration she supposedly shows at home.

The winner (timefigure 103) got the bigger upgrade by 2lb after showing a better turn of foot and repaid the faith of her trainer who had her pencilled in for the Irish 1000 but might now reroute to Newmarket. Even after this win it goes without saying the 1000 is another couple of steps up the ladder and she was well beaten on her only start at Newmarket so far.

At least Nell Gwyn winner Azleet will have no issues with the track, and has plenty of experience and a largely progressive profile, the sort that often gets underestimated when with a yard not associated with Classic runners, though no upgrade for this 50/1 win on the back of a 96 timefigures suggests she and the four who followed her home in something of a bunch finish will have their work cut out just as much to figure.

Of the other winners not among the Gosden quartet who won conditions or novice races at the two meetings, Godolphin’s Cerro Blanco looked a nice type in the opening Alex Scott maiden but probably didn’t beat a great deal in a modest 68 timefigure with only a small 3lb final furlong upgrade and he looks more one for later in the year.

Talk Of New York is a more precocious type and did enough to put himself in the Guineas picture after his horror show in Dubai where nothing went right, keeping on strongly to win a contest in a 109 timefigure just like Guineas runner-up Ten Bob Tony did too a few years ago.

The Feilden Stakes has been won by some good horses just short of top level in recent years and Morshdi (99) put himself in the Deby picture with a defeat of the equally-promising Poseidon’s Warrior (97 but 2lb better upgrade in the final furlong) while Hassaleh showed a smart turn of foot at the end of a seven-furlong maiden that was well-enough run to produce a timefigure of 73 yet from which she still emerged with an average 19lb upgrade across the final two furlongs.

Among the more established winners, Damysus won the Earl Of Sefton (like several races at the meeting sponsored by Betway) in a 104 timefigure boosted to 113 by a 9lb upgrade, while Abernant winner Run To Freedom posted only a 100 with no upgrade on the day. The race fit Sovereign Spell won the usually significant three-year-old handicap in a fast 101 though didn’t shape as well with future targets in mind than either runner-up Advertised or third Albaydaa.

I'm The One does not impress on the clock

So, what about the Gosden quartet? In order of winning margin, the confidently named I’m The One is up first. She scored by six lengths in a mile-and-a-quarter Newbury maiden that has been won by some smart fillies in recent years and is already clear favourite for the Oaks. Visually impressive as her performance was over a rival who’d already run to a maiden race winning level, the overall time (timefigure 62) was slow, over two and a half lengths slower than the following colts bunched finish despite the first six furlongs being run virtually three seconds slower, and given only one other horse in the field started shorter than 10/1 – and finished seventh – as well as she won all the evidence on the clock suggests the race was a shallow one.

That may well turn out to be the case too with this year’s Wood Ditton won by Portcullis, but on the evidence of one run I’d be inclined to take at least as positive a view of his future. He was probably helped by the early pace being modest (timefigure 67) as it allowed him to make up the significant ground he lost at the start without much exertion, but he must be useful to have breezed into contention so easily and then gone further and further clear with his final furlong in respect of his earlier fractions and final time a fast one.

In contrast, Water To Wine who won the 11-furlong maiden on Greenham day by four and a quarter lengths, strung his field out in a fast time - 92 was his timefigure – and despite competing in a more strongly run race than either Convergent in the John Porter or Rathgar in the concluding handicap still recorded better finishing upgrades than either of that pair; indeed, using the minimum of them (8lb) his overall timerating comes out at 101 while the best of them push it up 107.

So Regal, the only one of the four with previous experience, won her Newmarket maiden with a smart change of gear, elevating a slow timefigure (44) to 79 using the best of her three final furlong upgrades. All four are out of mares Timeform rated 113 or higher, so there’s a good chance at least one of them ends up winning in pattern company.

Meanwhile, Gilded Prize has already proven herself at Group level but in winning the Prix Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud she once again beat two fillies she’d had behind her the time before in a very slowly-run race she was able to dictate and while she ran out a ready winner, I’d be surprised if she turned up at Epsom.

Television pictures can be deceiving so far as appearance is concerned but she looks a very heavy-topped horse, a brute of a filly almost, with the sort of round action suitable to the surface she ploughed through here but doesn’t always translate well to the likelier faster ground she’ll encounter at Epsom. Well-watered Chantilly with its steady climb to the line looks a much more obvious fit.

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