Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for Wimbledon's men's singles

Wimbledon tips: Men's outright

1pt e.w. Taylor Fritz at 22/1 (BOYLE Sports 1/2 1-2)

0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 300/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/3 1-2)

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Wimbledon – Men’s Singles

• All England Club, Wimbledon, London, England

This year marks the 25th anniversary of Goran Ivanisevic’s remarkable Wimbledon triumph as a 125/1 wild card.

In the years since, there hasn’t been a champion anywhere near those odds. Indeed, it’s fair to say there hasn’t really been what you’d class as a ‘shock’ winner since the big Croat.

The 20 years of ‘Big Four’ dominance has been followed by the new ‘Big Two’ taking over – Carlos Alcaraz winning in 2023 and 2024, while last season Jannik Sinner claimed his maiden Wimbledon title.

With Alcaraz missing this year due to injury, the scene is set for Sinner to successfully defend his crown and that would be no surprise.

Amid all the noise about his stunning French Open loss, it seems to have been forgotten that prior to that defeat in the Paris heat he’d won 30 matches in a row and dominated in virtually every one of them.

There’s been talk of Sinner playing too much but that defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo – from two sets and 5-1 up – looked all about the weather to me.

We’d previously seen Sinner struggle at the Australian Open in intense heat. That day he was saved by the conditions being so severe that the roof was closed. He wasn’t so lucky in Paris.

He’s vowed to look deeper into the issue but I’m not sure there’s anything to worry about in London – this week’s heatwave would have been problematic but the long-range forecast has temperatures in the mid-20s throughout the tournament.

If Sinner is no different physically to the player who was racing through matches in that stunning unbeaten run, odds of 8/13 will seem generous.

Given he was going off around 2/5 at the French Open, I can understand people feeling there’s some value in that and it does look one for the big-hitters.

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However, it is slightly too short for me in this column. In 20-odd years of tennis tipping I’ve rarely put anything up at that price in the tennis outright markets and I’m wary of the fact that Sinner probably only won here last year due to Grigor Dimitrov’s pectoral muscle tear – he was two sets down at the time and staring down the barrel.

Grass is his least-natural surface and while he clearly showed he can beat the best on it 12 months ago, that’s certainly enough to persuade me not to be changing my long-term habit.

Novak Djokovic comes next in the betting but I’m a little unsure what to make of the seven-time champion’s chances at around the 6/1 mark.

He plays so little these days – this will be just his fifth tournament of the season – that it’s hard to gauge his form.

All his focus is really on the Slams now and, to be fair, he’s still managed to produce a high level at the majors. Prior to the recent French Open, he’d made semis or better at the last five Slams and in Paris it took a terrific performance from Joao Fonseca to topple the Serb, who lost from two sets up for only the second time in his long career.

That result helped highlight the problem Djokovic has now at the age of 39 – he’s on record as saying how tough it is for him to compete with the elite in the best-of-five-sets format.

The shorter grasscourt rallies may well help on that front, while no-one in this field knows how to play on this surface – one which still flummoxes many – better than Djokovic.

It’s not that hard to make the case that this is Djokovic’s best chance of the year to claim that record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title he so craves, but the draw hasn’t massively helped with the Serb in Sinner’s half.

He did beat Sinner at this year’s Australian Open but the lack of matchplay does still worry me and I don’t want to get involved at the price.

New French Open champion Alex Zverev comes next in the betting and there’s definitely a part of me that thinks he could kick on now he finally has that Grand Slam monkey off his back.

The German’s serve has worked well throughout 2026 and is the sort of weapon that still works wonders on the lower-bouncing grass – while there haven’t been surprise champions, we’ve since Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson, Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios all reach the final here in the past decade at decent odds. All had that big first-serve weapon picking up cheap points and ensuring a tough task for the returner.

Still, Zverev’s record in SW19 is off-putting – he’s not been past the last 16 in nine visits. Last year he lost in round one. He’s never really got to grips with the movement on grass – something victory in Paris isn’t going to change – and he is still without a title on the surface.

I’ll move on instead turn to another player who fits that profile of the big server who is happy on the surface, and that’s TAYLOR FRITZ.

There’s plenty to like about the American.

He’s won a lot of grasscourt matches ahead of this tournament to regenerate confidence in his game, reaching the final in both Stuttgart and Halle.

While neither title was captured, five of his 10 ATP crowns have come on this surface, a record only Djokovic in this field can match.

While Wimbledon isn’t among them, Fritz has been a consistent performer in SW19 in recent years.

He was a semi-finalist last year when he really should have taken Alcaraz into a deciding set.

There have also been quarter-final runs in 2024 and 2022 when he lost to Lorenzo Musetti and Rafael Nadal, again both in five sets. And he should have won the latter.

Admittedly, there are a couple of concerns, the first of which is the 28-year-old’s long-standing issue with knee tendinitis.

However, it hasn’t been such a problem of late, while the grass is more forgiving than the hardcourts on which he’s thrived over the years, albeit, it appears, at a cost.

The other is the draw, which has handed him a first-round encounter with Briton Jack Draper.

That can certainly have the awkward tag attached to it but Fritz will be the favourite against a player who hasn’t played many matches at all over the past year due to injury.

Yes, he made the Eastbourne semis this week but once there was dispatched by Ugo Humbert.

The player himself admitted last summer that “I really struggle on grass” and that won’t have been solved by one week in Eastbourne, even if Andy Murray is now in his coaching camp.

So, Fritz drawing Draper can be looked upon favourably, I’d suggest – it’s pushed Fritz’s price up to 22/1 generally and 20s with a firm offering half the odds if he makes the final and, for me, that’s an each-way bet given he’s in the opposite half to both Sinner and Djokovic.

Of course, this is a bet which could go wrong straight away but it’s not one I’ll be putting a great deal on so if the worst does happen, let’s just deal with it.

There are plenty of other players who will fancy their chances having been placed in that bottom half of the draw.

Czechs Jakub Mensik and Jiri Lehecka, the latter a finalist at Queen’s Club last year, both have serves capable of taking them through draws, while the same can be said about Stuttgart winner Ben Shelton.

Like Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Francisco Cerundolo arrive here off the back of grasscourt title successes on the ATP Tour and the former is the sort of player who could rise to the occasion – ‘Big Foe’ loves it on the big stage in front of an appreciative crowd.

Still, he’s got a tough-looking draw which includes another possible contender for a deep run and that’s Alexander Bublik.

He’s won Halle twice in the past – beating Sinner there last season – but he’s only ever beaten one top-40 player at Wimbledon which is worrying for potential backers.

Iin quarter three, that of Shelton and Alex de Minaur, I do wonder if Flavio Cobolli could go well at a big price after his run to the French Open final, one which made this column a tidy profit.

Many will have the Italian down as a claycourter but the fact is he made the last eight here 12 months ago and, buoyed by that impressive run at Roland Garros, could well have the confidence for another deep run.

However, for those seeking chunky odds, I’m going to put up UGO HUMBERT again.

He’s just made us a profit with his run to the Eastbourne final – I’m writing prior to the title match with Zizou Bergs, who is he player he’ll also meet in round one of Wimbledon.

The Eastbourne run followed on from his semi-final effort at Queen’s Club and so I don’t think he’s ever headed into a Grand Slam in such good form.

Crucially, the grass gives the Frenchman an advantage given his relatively old-school game style.

He’s happy to come in sometimes behind his be lefty serve and that’s still able to reap rewards on the faster surfaces.

I remember reading an excellent piece on the Tennis Abstract website – you can read it here – about how Humbert’s game is affected more than most by the surface speed and we’ve seen that most notably indoors where he’s had plenty of success on slick courts.

There have been triumphs, too, on grass, with Halle won in 2021. Here at Wimbledon, Humbert made the last 16 in both 2019 and 2024 but then ran into Djokovic and Alcaraz. He had the latter rocking too and could easily have taken the match to a deciding set.

Despite those two losses, Humbert is still a decent 5-5 against top-20 players on grass, while three of his eight victories at the All England Club have come against players ranked in the top 25.

While Humbert could face world number five Shelton in round three, I do believe the third quarter is the weakest of the four sections of the draw and if he can survive that clash, then there will be an opportunity to get to the latter stages.

In short, odds as big as 300/1 look a little disrespectful and are worth a small play.

It’s worth noting here that most bookies are going a third of the odds for a place in the final given Sinner is such a short-priced favourites. However, BOYLE Sports are one of those who offer the usual half and it makes sense therefore to back Fritz with them if you can get the 20s.

Otherwise, take the general 22/1 and top up with a small, speculative play on Humbert.

Preview posted 0915 BST on 27/06/2026

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