Breeders’ Cup 2020 tips and punting pointers including Aunt Pearl and Siskin

Recommended bets, Keeneland

3pts win Aunt Pearl in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (9.30 Fri) at 3/1

1pt e.w. Public Sector in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (8.10 Fri) at 12/1

1pt e.w. Peaceful in Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (6.57 Sat) at 7/1

1pt win Siskin in Breeders' Cup Mile (8.15 Sat) at 9/1

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A misspent youth and Team Europe all the way

The Europeans have enjoyed varying degrees of success at the Breeder's Cup over the last few years but 2019 wasn't much fun and but for Iridessa's victory in the Filly & Mare Turf, it would have been a clean sweep for the home team across the two days.

Should we really care? Maybe not. It's all about backing winners, right? Maybe so. But for as long as I can remember following racing, the Breeders' Cup has been one of the cornerstones of the year. Not quite at Cheltenham levels perhaps, or Royal Ascot even, but it's a big deal and Breeders' Cup Saturday was always pencilled in the diary from an early stage as the lads got together in the back room of the same local pub every year to drink, gamble and cheer on the European runners.

It was in that same pub I watched that unforgettable Breeders' Cup Turf in 2003 when High Chaparral and Johar dead-heated for first, with Falbrav a head back in third, in one of the most pulsating finishes in the history of the event. I was actually standing on a stool as the runners hit the wire, an Ireland flag raised above my head, so sure was I that Mick Kinane had driven the brilliant Derby winner to outright Turf victory for the second year running.

The landlord - a giant of a man from Northern Ireland who was blessed with a heart of gold - used to take our bets every year, long before the days of apps, laughing and shaking his head as we naively punted another European. He knew better, he'd seen it all before. A misspent youth my father used to call it. He was probably right, but God it was fun.

Times have changed - Kinane has long since retired and I won't be dancing on any bar stools or tables come Saturday night - but I still woke up on Friday morning with butterflies in my stomach about the weekend ahead, the Breeders' Cup, and getting behind the European raiding party.

Daily Mail racing correspondent Marcus Townend summed it up perfectly on our special BC Podcast earlier this week: "It's a bit like the Ryder Cup in golf, we tend to get carried away with the Team Europe thing, particularly when you're there, and we sometimes forget just how hard it is for the Europeans."

He's right, of course. I know all of this, but it hasn't stopped me trying to make a case for SISKIN to somehow return to form in the Mile, or gloss over PEACEFUL's flop in the Newmarket mud last time, or even warm to Battleground in the Juvenile Turf despite his wide draw and the suspicion that he might just be a bit slow.

Europe do have genuine chances across the two days this time around, though - Siskin and Peaceful included - and most definitely in the Turf where Tarnawa, Magical and Mogul will surely have the race to themselves.

If Siskin doesn't get them in the Mile, surely Kameko will, and what about Glass Slippers in the Turf Sprint and Mighty Gurkha for Hollie Doyle today in the Juvenile Turf Sprint? Hollie won't let us down, will she?

Clearly I'm getting carried away but I can't believe Team Europe will leave Keeneland empty-handed on Saturday and I'll be thoroughly disappointed if 'we' can't better last year's single victory.

Pearl to maintain perfect record

I honestly thought AUNT PEARL would be closer to 6/4 for the Juvenile Fillies Turf come the day of the race. She already boasts just about the best single piece of form in the race with her Jessamine Stakes cruise, has zero questions to answer regarding trip and ground, has bagged a lovely draw in stall five, and represents a trainer in Brad Cox who recently labelled Keeneland as "home" and generally has few peers at this venue. Think Mark Johnston at Goodwood and you get the picture.

Aunt Pearl only made her racecourse debut on September 1 when stretching clear at Churchill but she took the quick step up in class firmly in her stride when again making all of the running in the aforementioned Jessamine at this track, staying on strongly in closing stages to book her place at the Cup.

While the presence of stretch-out sprinter Royal Approval in tonight's field raises the possibility that Aunt Pearl won't have her own way up front, I'm not convinced she needs it and I'd argue that the fact she has made the running in her career so far has been more to do with connections wanting to play to her strengths - a high cruising speed and plenty of stamina - not that their filly isn't able to perform to her best if not setting the pace.

If anything, the presence of Royal Approval might prove ideal for the daughter of Lope De Vega, who is out of a Hurricane Run (2005 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner) dam, and if able to sit close enough to strong fractions from her low draw, she should be ideally placed to pounce when others have had enough.

Should that scenario not play out and Florent Geroux decide to put his filly on the lead again, her recent course victory, when in no way handed an easy lead, demonstrates that she has the engine to cut out the running and still have enough in reserve for the home stretch.

Not a quickener as such, Aunt Pearl looks a filly who might be even better over further next year and it will surely take a good one to pass her if Geroux gets his fractions right. She rates my bet of the meeting.

It's Chad's world, and we're all living in it

The words of US form expert Peter Thomas Fornatale, but it's a line that has stuck with me and the US king of the grass can take out the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf with PUBLIC SECTOR.

Brown broke Europe's recent stranglehold on this race when sending out Structor to claim victory at Santa Anita last year and Public Sector has an almost identical record having made an impressive start at Saratoga before taking in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont on his second start.

Structor was a narrow winner at Belmont before going on to claim Breeders' Cup glory but Public Sector should not be underestimated having finished second to the reopposing Fire At Will when unable to quicken up off slow early fractions.

Brown has been at pains in recent days to suggest a stronger gallop on Friday night will see his son of Kingman in a much better light and crucially, the stable is going much better now having gone through a slightly quieter spell following the conclusion of Saratoga's summer meet in early September.

With all that in mind, there are good reasons to believe Public Sector will produce a much bigger effort here and 12/1 looks too good to ignore.

The European challenge merits obvious respect, but I'm not convinced Cadillac will be quick enough while stall nine isn't ideal for Battleground, for all going up to a mile will suit Aidan O'Brien's colt.

I'll stick with Brown and Kingman - hardly a bad combination - and back Public Sector to come fast and late under Irad Ortiz.

Talking of legends of the US training ranks, Steve Asmussen has seen it all and if I'm still swinging by 10.15, I'll be seriously considering backing Jackie's Warrior for the Juvenile.

This colt has looked nothing but spectacular in his unbeaten four-race career to date and I have no concerns about him racing around two turns and this slightly longer trip. He looks a superstar in the making and I'll be watching with interest to see if layers are prepared to take him on closer to race time. He's 13/8 currently and deserves to be that short.

Peaceful can down home guard

I promised to confirm my loyalty to Europe earlier in this piece - Brexit notwithstanding - and after sticking with the home team on Friday, I'm firmly in the European camp on Saturday with PEACEFUL making strong appeal in the Filly & Mare Turf.

In truth, I fell in love with this filly when she broke her maiden at Thurles over a year ago now and she has fit plenty into the space of a year since, winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas before finishing a close-up third in the French Oaks and second in the Matron Stakes.

Her whole body of form is strong and having had only four starts this term, it's hard to argue she doesn't come to America a relatively fresh horse having enjoyed a two-month rest between her run at Chantilly and her return on Irish Champions Weekend.

Her subsequent flop in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket can surely be excused on account of heavy ground and I think an extended nine furlongs on quick going could prove absolutely ideal for this daughter of Galileo who might not have reached her ceiling just yet.

Stall three looks a good pitch and I'd expect Ryan Moore to make plenty of use of her, just as Seamus Heffernan did in the Irish Guineas, and home favourites Rushing Fall and Mean Mary will find her a level above the calibre of opposition they have been facing this summer.

Fellow Irish raider Cayenne Pepper merits plenty of respect, but her draw out in 14 is a potential nightmare for Shane Foley and I'm not fully convinced a trip this sharp is exactly what she wants.

Sexy Siskin keeps drawing me in

Kameko looks the solid play in the Mile having got his career back on track with victory in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket, reminding us of his 2000 Guineas victory at that same track in June.

Much has been said about what might be his best trip, but his best form and biggest wins have all come at a mile and if he can hold an early pitch here, you'd expect him to come home strongly under Oisin Murphy.

Another who ought to be finishing fast is last year's winner Uni, whose sparkling turn of foot gunned down her rivals in this race last year, but I'm not sure her, or Kameko, boast as potent a finishing kick as SISKIN.

For those of you who haven't stopped reading by now, a look back at Siskin's Irish Guineas victory, when quickening up through the eye of a needle before scooting clear of the Ballydoyle chasing pack, confirms this is a very smart miler.

Don't forget, this is a colt who began the year unbeaten at six furlongs and with many observers arguing he should be campaigned with all the big sprint races in mind this summer, so potent is his turn of foot.

It's true that things haven't gone exactly to plan since the Curragh but his run when third in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood was a solid one while his next outing in France is best forgotten given he got wound up before the start and pulled hard in the race itself, one that was run on unsuitably soft ground.

He really shouldn't have run there but Ger Lyons has had a good two months to prepare for America since and I'm not sure there are many better trainers at bringing horses back from a layoff than the one who has already overseen Siskin's career with such skill and patience.

This will be Siskin's last run before heading off to begin a stallion career and I'm expecting Lyons to have him primed to produce something like a career-best in a race which should be run at a strong clip and allow him to settle into his work and use his finishing kick to good effect in the stretch.

He doesn't come without his questions marks, that much is clear, but I'm not sure he deserves to be written off in the manner he has in recent weeks and 9/1 is a chance worth taking about a horse who was been hailed as the best miler in the world only a couple of months and a couple of starts ago.

Baffert the boss in Classic

No prizes for originality here but Bob Baffert looks to hold the key to the Classic with Improbable set to go off favourite ahead of stablemates Maximum Security and Authentic.

Improbable was very good when sweeping past Maximum Security in the Awesome Again Stakes but all of his best form has come at Santa Anita and shipping away from home has often made him even harder work at the stalls than usual.

He can be a real handful for the stalls handlers and Baffert has already raised concerns about Improbable producing his best form away from Santa Anita if getting worked up beforehand. He'd be my pick right now, but I'll want to see him before the start before striking any bets.

Elsewhere on a spectacular Saturday, my recent confidence in Tarnawa has ebbed away just a little in the last few days and I'm coming round to the feeling that Magical can go one better than when a fine second to Enable in this race in 2018.

She has looked as classy and reliable as ever this term, including when downing Ghaiyyath in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, and for all Tarnawa and Mogul could well improve past her, they aren't there yet and she very much sets the standard. This might be a race to watch and savour.

If I was to add another bet to the staking plan, it would be Leinster in the Turf Sprint. A real course specialist who comes into this race in the form of his life following a pair of course and distance victories, he looks the most solid option in a race which is awfully difficult to call.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 06/11/20

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