Simon Holt: Grand National 2017 tips Aintree
Top commentator Simon Holt previews the Grand National and the best of the supporting races at Aintree on Saturday.
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THE LAST SAMURI faces a formidable task under 11st10lb and a rating of 161 in Saturday's Randox Health Grand National at Aintree but has twice excelled over the big fences and will surely give his supporters a great run for their money.
Kim Bailey's diminutive but ultra-tough stayer started 8/1 joint-favourite and ran a tremendous race to chase home Rule The World last year when Ucello Conti (now 12lb better off) was about 35 lengths behind in sixth and Vieux Lion Rouge (8lb better off) was seventh. He then chased home the latter (now 5lb worse off for just over a length) and Highland Lodge (9lb worse off) in the six-furlong shorter Becher Chase here in early December (Ucello Conti, 1lb better off, fourth, One For Arthur, 9lb worse off, fifth and Rogue Angel tenth).
Subsequently, The Last Samuri looked an out and out stayer when no match for Definitly Red over 3m2f at Doncaster in early March when he became outpaced in the back straight before rallying.
On that form, there is no question he has something to find with the winner, though Definitly Red's stamina is by no means guaranteed and he has no experience of the course.
It could be that the weight will prove just too much for The Last Samuri but, of all the runners in the field, he is perhaps best qualified to run his race and, on drier ground this year which will suit him well, he can be backed each-way.
The other horse who catches the eye is THE YOUNG MASTER who was given a quiet ride in the Becher on his seasonal debut, trailing round at the back of the field before falling at the second last.
Last April's bet365 Gold Cup winner looks like he's been laid out for a National attempt and shaped much better when sixth at Cheltenham last month when keeping on well having lost his place at the top of the hill.
The Young Master's chance can only be improved in the hands of the amateur Sam Waley Cohen whose record over the big fences is second to none.
Since last April, Vieux Lion Rouge has produced two fine winning performances, following up his Becher victory with a game defeat of Blaklion at Haydock (3m4f) in February (Gas Line Boy fourth, Houblon Des Obeaux eighth, Vicente ninth) earning ante-post favouritism in his bid to improve on last year's sixth.
There is no question that David Pipe's chaser failed to get home 12 months ago but he was only a seven-year-old then and may stay better now.
Highland Lodge ran a blinder in his bid for a second Becher Chase and had the race won before tying up from the elbow. The 11-year-old clearly loves the course, and has been kept fresh for this by connections, but his aggressive style of racing may well leave him vulnerable over this longer trip.
Ucello Conti's fourth in the Becher confirmed that he is well suited to Aintree and, but for making a few mistakes, he might have been closer in last year's National.
Gordon Elliott's charge has run well in his last two starts in Ireland, notably when chasing home Champagne West at Gowran Park in January (Pleasant Company fourth, Rogue Angel fifth, Thunder And Roses seventh) and it will be surprising if he is not thereabouts again despite having many lengths to make up on the selection.
Rogue Angel and Thunder And Roses are both past winners of the Irish Grand National so should have the required stamina.
The other leading Irish challenger could be three-times Cheltenham Festival winner Cause Of Causes who landed the cross-country chase at Prestbury Park last month in impressive fashion.
However, this doughty stayer could finish only eighth here behind Many Clouds in 2015 having landed the Cheltenham four-miler a few weeks earlier and, again, the proximity of the Grand National meeting puts pressure on recovery time.
Based on their efforts at Grade One level on 'park' courses, there are several 'class' horses in the field, notably Saphir Du Rheu and More Of That who finished fifth and sixth respectively in last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Both have the ability to run big races despite being among the top weights, though they too would have had hard enough races that day.
Blaklion, winner of the RSA Chase at the Festival last year, has been battling the handicapper all season but he is a very solid jumper and, while closely weighted with Vieux Lion Rouge on their Haydock clash, cannot be ruled out.
After staying on into fifth behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher, One For Arthur ran out a convincing winner at Warwick and looks likely to stay the trip well.
Only an eight-year-old, Lucinda Russell's gelding is the type to run a big race but softer ground would have been more suitable and connections are a little concerned he could get outpaced in the early stages and find himself a long way back.
If he can stay in touch for the first circuit, One For Arthur should have a very good chance of providing a Scottish-trained winner.
Earlier, COLE HARDEN is taken to gain a deserved victory in the Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle.
The winner of the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2015, the eight-year-old has returned to something like his best form recently finishing second to Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle in late January before taking fourth, having made the running in his usual dashing fashion, behind Nichols Canyon in the staying hurdle championship last month.
The dry ground conditions will be ideal for Cole Harden here as he bids to go one better after finishing second to Whisper in this race two years ago.
Of course, it won't be easy up against likely warm favourite Yanworth who patently found the two miles of last month's Champion Hurdle at the Festival too sharp for him.
However, whether this undoubtedly classy hurdler wants an extra mile is open to question and, while proven over two-and-a-half miles, the extra furlongs here will be new territory.
Yanworth's class could see him home but the son of Norse Dancer falls short on pedigree as neither his dam or his siblings won beyond 2m3f.
In the opening Gaskells Handicap Hurdle, FOUNTAINS WINDFALL could prove the pick of the weights having bypassed Friday's Grade One Sefton Novices' Hurdle.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball claims to have deliberately targeted Aintree with this talented seven-year-old who has enjoyed two easy confidence boosters since finishing third in heavy ground at Sandown in early February.
Thought better on a quicker surface, Fountains Windfall should be well suited by three miles and travels like a good horse in his races.
Preview posted at 1140 BST on 07/04/2017
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