Simon Holt with his best bets for Newbury on Saturday
Fresh from a 12/1 winner on Friday, Simon Holt has an 80/1 tip for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
Recommended bets
1pt each-way Walt in 3.00 Newbury at 80/1
1pt win Jerrysback in 1.15 Newbury at 6/1
1pt win Chesterfield in 3.40 Newbury at 10/1
A hugely competitive renewal of the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury on Saturday demands a pop at a long-shot and WALT could be the answer.
Despite residing towards the bottom of the weights, the Neil Mulholland-trained gelding is no stranger to big-race success having taken the 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton (3m) last February off just a 4lb lower mark.
On his previous start, Walt showed he was on the upgrade when failing by a neck on this course to hold off De Rasher Counter, who has been popular in the ante-post markets for this race yet now renews rivalry on 6lb worse terms.
Moreover, James Best's mount comes here in good form after a battling win at Taunton (for which he picks up a 5lb penalty) where he fought on gamely to beat Brother Tedd who could be well handicapped over fences.
With the Mulholland team running at nearly one winner for every four runners in the past fortnight, Walt looks significantly under-estimated in the market at four times the price of De Rasher Counter who was well beaten on his hurdling reappearance.
Some of the shorter-priced runners have a few questions to answer; top weight Elegant Escape (with blinkers fitted for the first time) was beaten ten lengths by Sizing Tennessee twelve months ago off a 5lb lower mark, Ok Corral's two chase wins last season came in small fields before he was pulled up at Cheltenham and, even allowing for the difference in Anglo/Irish handicap ratings, Cabaret Queen needs to have improved markedly for Willie Mullins if she is to follow up her Munster National win off 20lb higher.
And Mister Malarky now wears cheek-pieces for the first time after a lacklustre seasonal debut at Ascot.
Earlier, JERRYSBACK is fancied to defy top weight on his reappearance in the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase.
Owned by J P McManus (a pal of Sir Peter's), the seven-year-old developed into a useful novice chaser last season beating the recent Cheltenham winner Mulcahy's Hill before chasing home the potentially high class Vinndication at Ascot and then going under by five lengths to a very much in-form rival in Castafiore (receiving 7lb) at Haydock.
On his final start, Jerrysback ran an amazing race in the four-mile National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where, after being brought to a standstill by a faller with just over a circuit to go, he fought back to hold every chance turning for home before weakening.
Back over a more suitable distance and with much of his form well boosted, this promising horse can win here before going onto better things.
If Newcastle falls to frost, then Lady Buttons may be re-routed to attempt a follow-up to her victory in last year's Ladbrokes Handicap Chase which ends the Newbury card.
This smart and popular mare cantered home 12 months ago, and won over hurdles at Wetherby on her reappearance, but she's up 9lb this time and is a tricky ride as she must not hit the front too soon.
It could be that her class will carry her through, but CHESTERFIELD looks a worthy alternative.
The winner of the 2017 Scottish Champion Hurdle (and third in 2018) as well as a fine second to Silver Streak in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock, the nine-year-old has been lightly raced in the past year.
Given a pipe-opener on the Flat at Windsor in October (ran creditably), Chesterfield was possibly fortunate to finish second behind the 158-rated Hell's Kitchen in a graduation chase at Carlisle over fences earlier in the month when Midnight Shadow and Djingle fell at the last.
However, it was still an effort which suggests he could be well handicapped off 143 over the larger obstacles (6lb below his hurdles mark), and the likely strong pace here should suit him well.
- Preview posted at 1605 on 29/11/2019
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