Our form expert advised 10/1 winner Alfred Wallace (30p R4) last Saturday and he has four selections for this week's ITV Racing action at Haydock and Kempton.
The Verdict: Saturday September 5
1pt win Hankelow in the 13:25 Haydock at 6/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Romanza in the 13:55 Haydock at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2)
1pt win Warrant Holder in the 14:50 Kempton at 10/1 (bet365, 9/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power, bet365)
1pt win Stressfree in the 15:05 Haydock at 7/1 (William Hill, 13/2 bet365, 6/1 General)
Stress looks best in the Old Borough Cup
Despite the hottest summer in recent memory Haydock has found itself with a ground description of ‘heavy’ a day out from the Betfair Sprint Cup after 23mm of rain Thursday going into Friday.
With Friday and Saturday looking dry and breezy we’re looking at likely tacky ground with my preference for horses either proven on or forecast to enjoy softer conditions, although that’s not of much help looking at the market for the feature.
All the juice has been squeezed out of the prices of the soft ground horses with Kind Of Blue and Marvelman both 4/1, Paborus around 5/1 and even James’s Delight, 50/1 earlier in the week, is trading at less than 20s now.
For me the most likely winner remains William Haggas’ Almeraq, the best horse in the field on account of his Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes win at Royal Ascot, while I thought he had genuine excuses in the July Cup when too free on the outside of the main pack getting no cover.
With only three weeks between those races he was probably just kept ticking along between the two assignments, as well, but Haggas has had time to retrain him for this race and the way it has cut up has worked in his favour.
He won on soft ground in his early days and I don’t think conditions will be any inconvenience to him whatsoever, while he goes well fresh and I do think he might just have a class edge on these rivals.
If he was 3/1 generally I’d get involved, but he’s just under that line and with plenty of other races to have a go at I’d rather spread my stakes elsewhere.
The preceding Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup has suffered due to the rainfall, too, with three withdrawn on Friday, but this looks a fairly straightforward case of being for or against the unexposed pair at the top of the market.
Charlie Appleby’s Aegean Prince has been off for 320 days, Haggas’ Finalise has been seen once since last September and that was in a German Listed contest a month ago.
The pair take plenty out of the market but I would rather back something more battle-hardened with the conditions in mind and the one I keep coming back to is David O’Meara’s STRESSFREE.
He ran a very good race in the Sky Bet Ebor at York last month when finishing a close-up sixth in a much better race than this one and the handicapper generously dropped him a couple of pounds on the back of it.
Never nearer than the four-and-a-quarter lengths he was beaten at the line, he will enjoy the combination of 1m6f and softer ground at Haydock in a race he was third in last year off a 5lb higher mark.
The Ebor has been a very strong pointer to the Old Borough Cup in recent years, with Euchen Glen, Island Brave, Post Impressionist and Epic Poet all winning the Haydock handicap on the back of running in the Ebor since 2020 – and Stressfree is the only representative this time around.
He has an excellent record on soft or heavy ground with form figures of 2-1-2-1-2-4-0-1-2-2-3-7-3-5 on such a surface and his conditioning could be a key factor against his lesser-spotted rivals in a potential slow-motion finish.
The Verdict: Back STRESSFREE in the 15:05 Haydock
Burke can be Superior once again
Earlier on at Haydock Karl Burke is going for a third win in a row in the Betfair Backs Opinions Superior Mile Stakes over a mile on the back of victories for Holloway Boy and Zeus Olympios the last couple of years.
Zeus Olympios was a three-year-old in the late Sheikh Mohammed Obaid silks and HANKELOW also runs for the Classic generation in the same colours this time around.
Also a son of Night Of Thunder like last year’s winning stablemate, Hankelow started his campaign with a run full of promise in the French 2000 Guineas, running an excellent third behind Rayif on the softening ground at Longchamp after leading for a long way.
Since then he was well beaten in the French Derby and the Strensall Stakes at York, but last time he was returning from nearly three months off and he made his move too soon off a hot pace and had nothing in the tank for the final furlong.
He’s better than that and back at a mile in soft ground in a race where he might just be able to dominate from the front, he’s worth backing.
The Verdict: Back HANKELOW in the 13:25 Haydock
Taking a punt in the Ascendent
Also at Haydock the Listed Betfair Celebrates Bow Echo Ascendent Stakes was won last year by, you guessed it, Bow Echo, and there’s a hot favourite again this year in Charlie Appleby’s First Law.
The Too Darn Hot colt did well to win at Sandown given he was so green, but that was on fast ground and this is a very different test in the conditions.
I’m keen to take him on and with no soft ground form to go on there could easily be a boilover with Charlie Fellowes’ ROMANZA fitting the bill nicely at 33/1.
His four-and-a-half length seventh in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot is actually one of the best pieces of form in the race and while he hasn’t kicked on from that I think he’s been wanting more of a test.
Gelded since he was last seen and now racing with a hood applied, there are various reasons why he could improve but tackling a mile on softer ground is the main one.
By Frankel and out of Con Te Partiro, a Group 1 mile winner on soft ground in Australia, his on paper credentials for the conditions are stronger than most and Fellowes has an excellent record at Haydock at this time of year (seven from 25 at 28% in the month of September).
He is a punt considering his last few runs and with only six runners there are only two places to fight for, too, but a small each-way wager is advised.
The Verdict: Back ROMANZA in the 13:55 Haydock
Warrant a bet in September Stakes
With Constitution Hill looking too short at 5/1 in the Group 3 William Hill September Stakes at Kempton I'm keen to bet against him, but the most obvious alternative, Gethin, hasn’t been missed in the market, either.
WARRANT HOLDER was at 12s and though he was understandably backed on Friday afternoon I’m happy to take his revised prices of 9/1 and any 10/1.
I like this kind of stoutly-bred late bloomer from the Gosden yard and being by Frankel out of a Dubawi mare he is well equipped for the 1m4f around Kempton.
Indeed, he is of major interest stepping back up to this trip after being sent off the 3/1 favourite for the John Smith’s Cup over 10 furlongs at York last time as previously at Royal Ascot he looked a huge improver at a mile and a half when second in a red-hot Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.
To be runner-up off a mark of 105 in a race as deep as that marked himself out as a Group horse in the making and Gosden’s hand was somewhat forced to run him in the John Smith’s Cup just three weeks later given he was 6lb well in.
After two months off I would expect the real Warrant Holder to stand up and with all eyes on Constitution Hill and Gethin, he could be the one to burst a few bubbles with some solid all-weather foundations laid at Newcastle earlier in his career.
The Verdict: Back WARRANT HOLDER in the 14:50 Kempton
Preview posted at 15:45 BST on 04/09/26
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