Our writers Nick Doggett, Matt Brocklebank and David Ord share their views on day one of the Qatar Goodwood Festival following Tuesday's confirmations.
Does the Goodwood Cup look a fairly straightforward task for last year’s winner Scandinavia, who is now unbeaten in his last six starts?
David Ord: It’s not straightforward - it can’t be with Trawlerman in town. It’s interesting that the Gosden team have elected to come here having swerved Goodwood over the last two seasons. There was only a head between the pair after a Gold Cup of the ages at Ascot.
The percentage call is that Scandinavia will find a way to get the job done, he always seems to do. But if there are still questions over stable form swirling around at the start of next week, then Trawlerman will look to expose an chinks in his armour. I can’t wait to see it play out.
Nick Doggett: Everything went perfectly for Scandinavia in last year's race, as it did in the Gold Cup last month. I can't remember him ever having to overcome an obstacle – perhaps that's to his credit as a straightforward horse who just happily runs somewhere near the pace and then carries on finding, perhaps it's just the nature of these (generally) smallish-field staying races. It's a bit like Kyprios, mark II.
Trawlerman's chance is obvious, while Rahiebb got much closer to Scandinavia in the St Leger and looked a little lit up by the flag start when only fourth at this meeting last year. He's worth another chance after Ascot, but I couldn't back him as there are still some doubts over whether he wants the ground this quick.
That doesn't apply to Amiloc, though, and he looks the each-way value in the race if taking part. Judging by his campaign so far (and future entries), connections clearly view him as a stayer, and he is unbeaten in two starts at Goodwood. He caught my eye in the Hardwicke and I'd only be encouraged if connections reach for some headgear to help him focus.
Matt Brocklebank: Aidan O'Brien says this horse only just does enough and it's hard to disagree, although I'm far from convinced he had much left in the tank when just seeing off Trawlerman at Ascot.
In theory, there's a chance the Gosden horse could step forward from that first run of the season but dropping in trip on this sharper track probably isn't going to play to his strengths so, on balance, the market has this about right with Scandinavia more likely to win than not.
Lake Forest bids to go one better than in last year’s Lennox Stakes – is he the horse they all have to beat?
David Ord: I wouldn’t be in a rush to take 7/4, would you? He’s talented and clearly effective over course-and-distance but is far from a prolific winner and is definitely one I’d look to take on.
What with I’m not sure just yet but Paborus would be very high on the shortlist following his comeback win at Newcastle and fingers crossed connections are getting a clear run with him this summer. I’ve also got a lot of time for Zavateri who we haven’t seen since the Greenham but he was one of last season’s leading British two-year-olds and getting loads of weight at a track he’s won at before, I’d expect him to be there or thereabouts if coming here over the Sussex.
Nick Doggett: On form he is, as his close fifth to Almeraq in the Jubilee feels very solid, for all he actually produced a better performance on the figures when storming clear in listed company at Haydock on his reappearance. Connections report him to be more straightforward having been gelded over the winter, but he had to be mounted in the chute and taken down early here last year and I'd be a little concerned about the occasion getting the better of him, especially given the hot forecast.
While some rain would have been ideal, I'm still interested in Qirat (assuming he goes from the front again). A shock winner of last year's Sussex, he is unbeaten when setting the fractions and this race has often gone to those who race prominently.
Matt Brocklebank: Lake Forest is hugely talented and the gelding operation over the winter certainly appears to have helped but there's no question he's a tricky customer.
Fast ground over seven furlongs looks absolutely spot-on for him but he's probably the sort of horse I'd be looking to take on if priced up defensively by the bookmakers as this course can be a great leveller at the best of times.
Which two-year-old catches your eye among the Tuesday entries?
David Ord: It’s a potentially fascinating Coral Vintage Stakes. Al Hudaiba is clearly the clubhouse leader after his Superlative Stakes win but Aidan O’Brien looks set to take aim at him with either Haffner or Giant Sequoia. Both are colts of immense potential.
The latter came forward from a considerate debut to win a Curragh maiden that the yard have used with A Listers before and he looks bound for the top table as does Haffner who won the Rossdales British EBF Maiden at the July Meeting when still a work in progress. We’ll definitely get a clear sense of the ceiling for whichever one rocks up next week.
Nick Doggett: Cut A Dash in the Vintage. Sean Levey had to sit and wait for a long time when the pair were sixth in the Coventry and – for all he didn't rocket home once in the clear – I think that was more down to greenness/not having an electric turn of foot on just his second start rather than not staying the trip fully.
His dam Promising was second twice here in her juvenile season, including at Group 3 level in the Prestige Stakes over this furlong-longer trip, and I think he's just the right horse to serve it up to the July Festival winners Al Hudaiba and Haffner. And let's not forget, his trainer won this race four years on the bounce from 2010 to 2013 so he should know exactly the type needed.
Matt Brocklebank: Curragh maiden winner Giant Sequoia is an obvious one in the Vintage Stakes but there's a typically strong six-furlong maiden on the card too and it could be worth keeping an eye out for Sioux Nation colt Severn Councils, who was pitched into a Listed race on his debut at Newbury just last Friday and shaped like he'd come on a bundle for the experience. Richard Hughes might just have aimed him at this meeting, where he had so much success during his riding days.
Finally, is there a handicapper you’re expecting to enjoy the whole Goodwood experience?
David Ord: I’m hoping Quai De Bethune will as he bids to get the week off to a flier for the Wathnan team in the Chesterfield Cup. It’s a big meeting for them and the four-year-old is low mileage and very interesting.
He cost a cool 775,000 guineas to buy out of the Andrew Balding yard after winning the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot last year and was having his first start for Hamad Al Jehani when running far better than the finishing position suggests behind Sallaal at the Betfred Derby Festival.
He was then caught up in the traffic problems in the John Smith’s Cup but has been dropped three pounds to 97 since, which means he’s only three higher than for his Ascot success. That’s a very exploitable mark given how well the form worked out.
Nick Doggett: Although he was having his ninth race, Wave Rider still looked a work in progress when winning at Pontefract last September on his final start for Roger Charlton. He ran well on his debut for George Scott/first start in Bahrain when a neck second to Sovereign Spirit (who has won a Group 3 since), but the rest of the experience didn't go to plan.
However, he has a lot of very solid runs behind some good horses, has shown strong form on quick ground, and – from the family of Vermeille winner Kitesurf - I still think he can win from this new mark of 99. Entered in the opening Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap, the apparent early booking of Oisin Murphy (profitable 19% strike-rate for the yard) further increases confidence.
Matt Brocklebank: I've no idea whether the track will suit her in truth but Dandana has winning form at Ripon which is fairly undulating so perhaps that bodes well for her Goodwood debut. She's not had many chances on quick ground and the daughter of Blue Point has been dropped 3lb for her most recent run at York when down the field on her first outing since last September.
Simon and Ed Crisford are bombing along at a fair strike-rate currently and it wouldn't shock me to see this daughter of Blue Point run well at a big price as she was considered good enough to contest the Lowther last summer and remains unexposed in handicaps.
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