Thyme Hill has a lot going for him ahead of the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, according to Paul Ferguson - author of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.
Cheltenham Festival trends: Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
- 10/10 - Aged 9 or younger
- 8/10 - Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
- 7/10 - Won or placed at Cheltenham
- 6/10 - Second-season hurdler
SELECTION: THYME HILL
The last of the four key trends is becoming more and more influential, with those six second-season hurdlers to win in recent years coming during the past seven years.
This suggests that the younger, up-and-coming horse is what is required, and the past three winners contested the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier.
Both point towards THYME HILL, who finished an unlucky fourth on Gold Cup day last year, and has a good record at the track, having won a Grade 2 novices' hurdle (November 2019) and also having been placed in two bumpers at this course (including the 2019 Weatherbys Champion Bumper).
The age statistic also speaks in his favour, as although the past 10 winners were aged nine or younger, 28 of the past 31 winners (when delving much deeper) were aged between six and eight.
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