Oli Bell: Beat the banker | QIPCO British Champions Day Ascot tips
ITV Racing's Oli Bell marks your card for QIPCO British Champions Day and he's very sweet on the chances of Beat The Bank in the QEII.
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QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot just looks incredible with some amazing rematches and brilliant contests to look forward to.
From a personal point of view, the one I’m obviously looking forward to is Big Orange – trained by my uncle Michael – going up against Order Of St George.
However, Harry Angel versus Caravaggio will be fantastic on a race day that is full of quality, as it so often is and as those who devised the idea for the event hoped it would be.
There may be no Enable, but Cracksman lining up against the likes of Barney Roy and Highland Reel makes for a mouthwatering contest.
There’s a lot going on away from the course as well at Ascot, so if you can come racing please do as there’s plenty to celebrate from what has been a very successful Flat season.
I’ll be back on The Opening Show alongside Francesca Cumani, Jason Weaver and Matt Chapman from 9.30am on ITV4 before the afternoon coverage gets underway at 1pm on the main channel.
Take a look at who I’m backing for Champions Day glory:
1.25pm – The QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup, 1m 7f 201yds
Where do I start with this one? Obviously it’s a match-up I cant wait to see. My heart says Big Orange and my head says Order Of St George.
There’s a feature with Big Orange on The Opening Show so you can find out exactly how he is then, but I can safely say he’s in very good nick.
The well-documented problem is the rain in the air and that the ground won’t be quick. Everyone knows that he’s a horse that goes better when the ground is better, which will play into the hands of Ryan Moore and Order Of St George.
The caveat is that we looked at the race 12 months ago and thought Order Of St George should win it, but he burnt out. Do I want to be backing him this year at short odds? I just don’t know.
If there’s to be one race on the card where there’s a bit of a surprise, perhaps it’s this one and perhaps you would want to take on two horses that are making up a large percentage of the market by looking elsewhere.
One horse who, admittedly, has been put in his place a few times already by rivals in the line up but has been there, done that and got the t-shirt on this day is Sheikhzayedroad.
For all that he has finished behind other horses in this race, it wouldn’t be a massive shock to see him be competitive at a big price.
It’s not rocket science to say Order Of St George should come out on top, but Sheikhzayedroad has a chance with value. I would love more than anything to see Big Orange win, but I think the ground will go against him.
2pm – The QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes, 6f
This is going to be a fantastic tactical battle. Harry Angel is a front runner, with Alphabet put in there by Coolmore to go up there as well.
But, will Harry Angel be able to deal with it or is Clive Cox’s three-year-old just too good? Does it matter if a horse is there to take him on? We will find out the answers on Saturday and if he can’t handle that pressure it will set up the race for a horse in behind.
I just have the feeling that Harry Angel is the best in the race and he proved his versatility on soft ground at Haydock last month. People were worried about whether he would handle the conditions, but he was brilliant and just went through the gears with no problem.
If Harry Angel isn’t able to cope with it I don’t think I would be backing Caravaggio. It might be stupid to go against AP O’Brien given what he has achieved this season, I just don’t like the Commonwealth Cup winner’s profile going into the race.
Yes, he was good at Royal Ascot and how the race unfolded suited him, but then he had a couple of disappointing runs and it didn’t look like he was firing.
Caravaggio won a fairly ordinary race the last time out at the Curragh and I haven’t been taken with what I have seen since the Royal meeting. Maybe everything will go his way on Sunday, but I can’t be fancying him with confidence.
One horse that may not be featuring in the public’s mind is Quiet Reflection who will love conditions, who proved her wellbeing last time out by winning at Naas and who loves Ascot. For a lot of reasons she ticks plenty of boxes and might just be the one to give Harry Angel the most to think about.
2.40pm – The QIPCO British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes, 1m 3f 211yds
Bateel on soft ground is the best filly in the race and has won at Haydock and Ascot in similar conditions since moving to Francis-Henri Graffard from David Simcock.
The way she goes about the job is first class, she is clearly in good heart and she will love the going. I can see very few flaws in her.
The other horses are pretty solid and I would be more inclined to side with Hydrangea over the others if you weren’t to go for Bateel, as she’s really tenacious.
AP O’Brien’s filly has some really good performances behind her and she’s just really tough. Particularly in this field, to have a horse that you know will go to war for you is a real positive.
3.15pm – The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m I’m absolutely all over
Beat The Bank, who is my bet of the day. This horse has won on soft ground before so conditions shouldn’t be a problem.
His form isn’t as strong as Ribchester or Churchill and some may say he isn’t a Group 1 horse. But the simple reply to that is he hasn’t had the chance to prove himself in one yet.
How good is his form? Well, the three-year-old has been beating horses by five, six or seven lengths. He’s been smashing up Group 2 or 3 horses, winning in the style of a Group 1 horse.
On Saturday Beat The Bank will answer any doubts people have about whether or not he’s a Group 1 performer.
I think he’s the best horse in the race, which may sounds ridiculous given what Ribchester has achieved. But he’s yet to have the opportunity like he will get on Saturday to prove that.
3.50pm – The QIPCO Champion Stakes, 1m
After the disappointment of Ribchester in The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, I think Godolphin will be smiling again because Barney Roy will win the Champion Stakes.
I actually think connections and the horse got a few things wrong in the Juddmonte at York and that this will be Cracksman’s toughest test yet. He clocked a decent time, but is yet to really be put to the sword.
I tipped up Barney Roy as one to watch at the start of the season, so it is only fitting that I once again back a three-year-old that has had a fantastic season regardless of what happened on the Knavesmire.
Now his team have had the time to properly put this race in the frame and put things right, I think Barney Roy will go pretty close.
4.30pm – The Balmoral Handicap Stakes, 1m
Lord Glitters massively caught the eye last time out when second behind Accidental Agent earlier this month. It was a race that suited hold-up performers but I think he has to be respected.
The horse I’m most interested in and that I fancy quite strongly is Speculative Bid, who finished seventh of 18 in that aforementioned race.
The reason why I think he can improve and finish ahead of the likes of Lord Glitters and Accidental Agent is because he was returning after a very lengthy absence that day.
You have to keep in mind the dreaded bounce factor, but David Elsworth is a genius and has already landed big handicap races this year. He’s worth an each way play.
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