Newmarket Guineas meeting analysis and Timeform ratings

Castle Way (113p from 97)

Castle Way was a useful two-year-old for the Charlie Appleby yard last season, notably winning a valuable nursery at Newmarket in October when stepped up to a mile and a quarter for the first time, and he progressed again after seven months off to follow up in Friday’s Listed Newmarket Stakes over the same course and distance.

Despite being relatively unfancied in the betting, the 7/1 sixth choice of punters in a field of only seven, Castle Way was ultimately an authoritative winner, moving to the front at around halfway and responding well having been shaken up over two furlongs to land the spoils by a length and three-quarters.

Appleby was winning this Listed heat for a fourth time and, like Hawkbill (2016) and Nations Pride (2022) before him – both subsequent Group/Grade One winners – Castle Way seems sure to go on to better things having come out on top in what looked a strong renewal this year, with plenty of potential on show in behind.

The son of Almanzor doesn’t hold a Derby entry having seemingly failed to handle the track when disappointing at Epsom as a two-year-old, but he is likely to stay a mile and a half when the time comes and the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot which Appleby earmarked afterwards appeals as a logical target.

Hi Royal (118 from 92p)

It seems unlikely to prove a vintage running of the 2000 Guineas that Chaldean won on Saturday. While he clearly produced a career-best effort to take his record to five wins from seven starts, his new Timeform rating of 123 (from 118) is that of just an average winner, with only Saxon Warrior (122 in 2018) and Poetic Flare (122 in 2021) ranking lower than him in the last decade.

Too many of Chaldean’s main form rivals simply failed to fire for him to be rated any higher, while the fact the runner-up, Hi Royal, came into the opening Classic of the season as the lowest-rated runner in the field also suggests a cautious view is perhaps best, at least for the time being.

Beaten in a seven-furlong conditions event at the same course just a couple of weeks earlier, Hi Royal was taking a huge step up in class and seemingly showed much-improved form in giving the winner most to think about. He was beaten just a length and three-quarters at the line and would have finished even closer but for hanging his chance away late on.

The return to a mile and switch to positive tactics clearly suited Hi Royal, who is worth crediting with a borderline very smart performance on just his fourth start. The St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot could be next on his agenda and a rematch there with Chaldean will give him the opportunity to prove that he is fully deserving of his place at the top table.

Running Lion (115p from 98p)

The Gosden stable has now won the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes six times since 2014, the year that Taghrooda ran out a most impressive winner before going on to follow up in the Oaks. Taghrooda remains the last filly to complete that double, though possibly not for long if Running Lion heads to Epsom on the back of her own Pretty Polly rout on Sunday.

Back on turf for the first time since her debut, Running Lion settled much better than she had at Kempton the time before, travelling smoothly in touch before starting to make headway entering the final two furlongs. The most impressive aspect of her performance was the way she then drew right away after hitting the front over a furlong out, ultimately winning by four and a half lengths with plenty in hand.

Whether Running Lion now tries to follow in the footsteps of Taghrooda is seemingly open to some debate. She also has the option of the Prix de Diane and that seemed to be the way her connections were leaning in the immediate aftermath of this success due to the shorter trip.

Still, the way Running Lion settled at Newmarket suggests she is far from a forlorn hope to stay a mile and a half, while the track at Epsom shouldn’t pose any issues for a filly who handled the Dip with aplomb. Above all else, she is clearly blessed with plenty of ability and the form she showed here will give her leading claims wherever she goes next.

Via Sistina (123 from 114)

The last two winners of the Dahlia Stakes – Lady Bowthorpe in 2021 and Dreamloper last year – both went on to make the breakthrough in Group One company later in the season, a feat which is likely to prove a mere formality for Via Sistina such was the level of form she showed when adding her name to the illustrious roll of honour for this Group Two on Sunday.

The official winning margin was six lengths and it’s possible to make the case that she was value for even more having barely come off the bridle in seeing off a whole host of smart rivals, impressively quickening clear after being produced to lead over two furlongs out.

Via Sistina had taken her form up a notch in two starts for George Boughey (formerly trained by Joseph Tuite) towards the end of last year, but this was on a different level altogether, putting up the best performance in this race’s history and kicking off what promises to be a successful five-year-old campaign.

Group One assignments surely await and just a repeat of this form will ensure that Via Sistina continues to take all the beating against her own sex. For context, she is now rated above the likes of Emily Upjohn (120) and Nashwa (119), both of whom have been kept in training having been among the best three-year-old fillies around over middle-distances in 2022.

Mawj (122 from 111)

Mawj reached a useful level in five starts as a two-year-old, notably winning the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at the July Festival and ending the campaign with an even better effort in defeat when finishing a good third in the Cheveley Park Stakes on the Rowley Mile.

It’s fair to say that the form was nothing out of the ordinary for a potential 1000 Guineas contender, though, and neither was that of her two wins in Dubai earlier this year, so the performance she produced to complete the hat-trick back on British soil on Sunday came out of the blue somewhat, proving most game when challenged by favourite Tahiyra (120p from 116p) to get the verdict by half a length.

The first two pulled seven and a half lengths clear of the rest and the timefigure provides plenty of substance to the form, so there can be no disputing that this was a significant career best from Mawj as she provided trainer Saeed bin Suroor with a first success in this race since 2002 and a first British Classic win full stop since Mastery struck in the 2009 St Leger.

In fact, with a Timeform rating of 122, Mawj put up one of the best performances in the 1000 Guineas this century, behind only Finsceal Beo (123 in 2007) and just ahead of Legatissimo (121 in 2015) and Minding (121 in 2016). She’s clearly a very smart filly and a rematch with Tahiyra, possibly in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, will be a race to savour.

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