Leopardstown & Limerick tips: Preview and analysis including Savills Chase best bet

The Savills Chase is all about A Plus Tard. It was in this race last year that Henry de Bromhead’s horse ticked the stamina box, stayed on with gusto from the final fence to claim Melon and Kemboy, and earn the Ride of the Year accolade for Darragh O’Keeffe.

The Cheveley Park Stud horse has run just twice since then, second behind his stable companion Minella Indo in the Gold Cup on his only other run last season, and that scintillating performance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (replay below), which catapulted him to the top of the Gold Cup ante post market.

And he is still only seven.

What's the each-way value in the Savills Chase?

It is difficult to pick holes; A Plus Tard has the class, he has the stamina, he has the course form, he goes into the race on an upward trajectory. He is 9lb superior to his best rival on official ratings. It is correct that he is odds on. But, with an odds-on favourite and the dead eight runners, there is a good each-way shape to the race, and DELTA WORK looks over-priced at double-figure odds.

Gordon Elliott’s horse was well beaten at Down Royal on his debut this season, but he is never at his best on his first run of term. His record on his first run of the season reads 4231454, and the 1 was an unimpressive victory at 4/9 on his chasing bow at Down Royal. By contrast, his record on his second run of the season reads 11311U.

The U was in this race last year, an uncharacteristic error at the second fence down the side of the track, after he was slightly hampered by Minella Indo’s fall at the first.

That mishap aside, he goes really well at Leopardstown. He won the Neville Hotels Chase at this meeting as a novice, and he won the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup in 2019/20, all three races run over today’s course and distance.

Of course, that was two seasons ago, but he is still only eight, and there is every chance that, with his seasonal debut run under his belt, he can return to the sort of form that saw him beat Monalee and Kemboy and Road To Respect in this race two years ago.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Franco De Port out-run big odds. On breeding, there is every chance that he will stay the distance and, if he does, he could run better than a typical 50/1 shot does.

Can Dermot Weld work his magic once more?

COLTOR could also run well in the Pertemps qualifier earlier in the day. Dermot Weld’s horse was a good juvenile hurdler last season, he won his maiden at Naas in January, and he ran a big race to finish fifth in the Fred Winter Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March off a handicap mark of 127.

He stayed on well that day after getting a little outpaced, leaving the impression that he would benefit from a step up in trip. He stays well on the flat too. He won his maiden over a mile and three furlongs as a three-year-old, but he progressed last season when he stepped up to staying trips.

Coltor put up the best performance of his career when he stayed on well to win the big Connacht Hotel qualified riders’ race at the Galway Festival in July over two miles, and he ran well in the November Handicap at Naas also over two miles the last time we saw him.

He finished one place and two and a half lengths behind Maze Runner that day, but he meets Willie Mullins’ horse on 18lb better terms today. He could be a well handicapped horse over hurdles now, having improved on the flat from a mark of 84 to a mark of 90 since he last raced over hurdles off today’s mark of 127.

The step up to three miles is a step into the unknown, but he races like he will improve for going beyond two miles, there is every chance that he will get three, and we know that Dermot Weld can target a horse at this meeting, as evidenced by Dalton Highway’s win in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle at this meeting two years ago.

What's the best bet at Limerick?

At Limerick, it might be worth taking a chance on DEFI BLEU in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase. Third in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2019, Gordon Elliott’s horse was in good form last spring.

He jumped well in making all the running to beat Opposites Attract in a three-mile beginners’ chase on heavy ground at Wexford in March, and he stepped forward from that next time when he finished second behind Chatham Street Lad in the Grade 3 Hugh McMahon Chase at Limerick three weeks later.

That was his second good run in as many visits to Limerick, he finished second too in the Grade 2 three-mile novices’ hurdle at this meeting in 2018.

You have to allow him a moderate run in the Troytown Chase last time, but that was his seasonal return, on good ground. He should be much happier back on heavy ground today and back at Limerick, where we know he runs well.

The drop in trip is not ideal, but the ground should bring his stamina into play, and it is worth taking a chance on the distance at the odds.

For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com

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