Adam Houghton crunches the numbers to see how the two-year-olds in Britain measured up following a slow start to the campaign.
Where are all the good two-year-olds in Britain?
That was the question on everyone’s lips for much of the summer, the outcry following a series of downright forgettable juvenile races in Britain. A rare exception was the day we had the Irish-trained superstar City of Troy over to visit our shores, exceptional when winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July Festival by six and a half lengths.
The runner-up on that occasion was Richard Hannon’s Haatem and it was symptomatic of the shortcomings among the juveniles on this side of the Irish Sea that he was then able to win the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood on his next start.
The form was described as “some way below the usual standard for the race” in Timeform’s post-race analysis and Haatem ended the campaign with a rating of just 98 having been beaten on his three subsequent starts in pattern company.
One of those defeats came in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York won by Lake Forest, another weak race for the grade. The winner’s performance was “well towards the lower end of achievement in the last 20 years” according to Timeform and a rating of 106 showed him to be a useful juvenile but not the future star we were crying out for heading into the autumn.
At the start of September there was just one two-year-old trained in Britain with a Timeform rating of 110 or above. Admittedly, that statement doesn’t tell you much in isolation, but the talent shortage compared to previous years becomes clearer when you consider there were five at the same stage in 2022, six in 2021 and seven in 2020.
As for the fillies, Relief Rally was top of her class in Britain after winning the Lowther Stakes at York, though that was described by Timeform as “an ordinary renewal of a very valuable Group 2” and a figure of 104 set a pretty low bar ahead of the top-level contests to come.
Vandeek leads late-season fightback
The first of Britain’s Group 1 races for two-year-olds were both run at Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting in late-September, namely the Cheveley Park Stakes for fillies and the Middle Park Stakes for colts.
Relief Rally was a late absentee from the Cheveley Park due to a bad scope and it turned out to be another weak contest of its type as the home team was again put in the shade by Irish raider Porta Fortuna – described by Timeform as “the lowest-rated winner of the race in a decade”.
But there has been a fightback from Britain’s two-year-olds in the last nine weeks.
It’s been led all year by Simon and Ed Crisford’s Vandeek (119p), the only one with a rating above 110 at the start of September and then better than ever when making it four from four in the Middle Park (replay below), quickening smartly to win by two and a quarter lengths from Ralph Beckett’s Task Force (111p), a big improver having previously won a maiden at Salisbury and a Listed race at Ripon.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Crucially, Vandeek and Task Force are now joined by nine other British-based two-year-olds who have achieved a Timeform rating of 110 or above.
The pick of the rest is Charlie Appleby’s Ancient Wisdom (118), who was an emphatic winner of the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival and then didn’t need to match that form to follow up in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. His vanquished rivals on Town Moor included Roger Teal’s Dancing Gemini (114), an impressive Listed winner at the same course on his previous start.
Appleby unleashed another bright prospect at the Future Champions Festival when Arabian Crown (114p) ran away with the Group 3 Zetland Stakes, while the Owen Burrows-trained Alyanaabi (112) proved himself a smart colt in his own right when faring best of the rest behind the all-conquering City of Troy in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes.
Mick Appleby isn’t as accustomed to training top-level two-year-olds as his namesake, but he’s done a fine job with Big Evs (114 – subject to change after Friday’s win), whose win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint was preceded by a dominant performance in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster.
Hannon’s Rosallion (116p) was another top-level winner from Britain on the international stage, taking out the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp in decisive fashion, while Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes winner Ghostwriter (110p) and Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes winner Inquisitively (110p) are others who showed smart form when landing lesser pattern races at Newmarket.
There was a new leader among the fillies in Britain, too, as Karl Burke’s Fallen Angel (110p) ran out a determined winner of the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh.
Positive signs but still down on previous years
11 two-year-olds with a Timeform rating of 110 or above might be considered a decent return for team Britain in the end given how few we’d seen during the summer, but how exactly does that tally match up in the grand scheme of things?
For a start, Aidan O'Brien has come up with a least six by himself, blessed with a team of two-year-olds at Ballydoyle the like of which we've rarely seen before in one set of hands.
That squad includes the top two colts in Europe, City of Troy (125p) and Henry Longfellow (120p), plus the leading filly, Opera Singer (114p). There's also Unquestionable (113 – subject to change after Friday’s win), Diego Velazquez (110) and River Tiber (110), while Mountain Bear, who was runner-up to Unquestionable at Santa Anita, is also likely to be around the 110 benchmark once his rating has been revised.
The total number of two-year-olds with a rating of 110 or above in Britain also remains down compared to the corresponding stage of the season in previous years, taking the Monday after the running of the Futurity Trophy as the reference point.
Last year O’Brien again had the top two colts in Europe, namely Little Big Bear (126p) and Auguste Rodin (121p), but below them there were 17 two-year-olds in Britain rated 110 or above, headed by Gimcrack winner Noble Style (119p) and the Dewhurst one-two, Chaldean (118) and Royal Scotsman (118).
In 2021, Britain had no fewer than 21 two-year-olds rated 110 or above and Charlie Appleby had the champion juvenile in Europe in the shape of Dewhurst winner Native Trail (122p), plus highly-rated stable companions Coroebus (116p) and Modern Games (114p).
And in 2020, St Mark’s Basilica (122p) and Wembley (120) took star billing in Europe after leading home a one-two for O’Brien in the Dewhurst. In Britain, 19 two-year-olds had a Timeform rating of 110 or above, the pick of them being Middle Park winner Supremacy (118) and Mill Reef winner Alkumait (115p).
Incidentally, it's worth pointing out that the number of horses who fall just below that top bracket has remained fairly consistent this year compared to the three before it. For context, there are 15 British-based two-year-olds in 2023 with a Timeform rating from 105 up to 109p, compared to 17 in 2022, 16 in 2021 and 11 in 2020.
It's purely in the elite category that they've failed to come up with the ammunition that you might typically expect, leaving them with work to do to get out of the shadow of Ballydoyle’s hugely-talented squad when attentions turn to the Classics in 2024.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
