Graeme North was impressed by Hillcrest on the clock at Haydock - but points out history says he's got plenty to prove in the Albert Bartlett.
As Pentland Hills showed back in 2019 when winning a novice hurdle at Plumpton three weeks before his win in the Triumph Hurdle, it’s never too late to gatecrash what had hitherto looked a settled Cheltenham picture, and the performances over the weekend of Hillcrest and Teahupoo in some of the last recognized trials before the Festival certainly introduced a new dynamic to the markets for the Albert Bartlett and Champion Hurdle respectively.
Smart though their performances were on the clock, however, the clock is only one of many factors to take into account when assessing their Festival prospects and one of those others, as I’ll reference in the last paragraph, makes me think their prospects might not be quite so rosy as they appear initially, certainly where Hillcrest is concerned.
After some uncertainty over whether the fixture would go ahead post-Storm Eunice, Haydock staged its traditional pre-Cheltenham card which, as usual, included two Graded hurdles over an extended three miles as well as the Grand National Trial over half a mile further. Stamina was always going to be the order of the day, particularly later in the afternoon after the earlier runners had churned up already heavy ground, and that context needs bearing in mind when comparing the William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle won by Wholestone and the Albert Bartlett Prestige won by Hillcrest (there was also a Pertemps Qualifier over the same trip run in between).
A quick look at the respective finishing times of the winners shows how much faster Hillcrest ran than either of the other two winners; his winning time of 6.31.6 as timed by Timeform was just over nine seconds faster than Wholestone and over twelve seconds faster than Foillan, despite carrying 1lb and 19lb more than that pair respectively.
Foillan’s race was much the slowest run of the trio; to five out it was getting on for thirteen seconds slower than Hillcrest to the same point and just over ten seconds slower than Wholestone’s. What I would have expected knowing these sectionals - Hillcrest reaching five out around two and a half seconds faster than Wholestone – is that is that the 2018 Stayers Hurdle third would have come home at least as fast as Hillcrest, not least given his race was getting on for two hours earlier. Instead, the opposite happened – it was Hillcrest who came home faster, and not by a little but by six and a half seconds!
This is one of those instances when the clock is far more revealing of the merit of a race than a weights-and-measures form assessment. Wholestone undoubtedly received a canny ride on his first start for over a year, his rider biding his time until the front-running Top Ville Ben shot his bolt after three out, but those sectionals strongly suggest the race fell apart (timefigure 106) and whether Top Ville Ben ran anywhere near form is anyone’s guess.
Hillcrest’s effort on the other hand looks very strong, as does that of the runner-up Crystal Glory, and this giant beast of a horse, who might still be unbeaten but for unseating when hampered at Cheltenham last month, is worth full value for his win (142 timefigure) and, given he helped cut out the running, probably a fair bit more too.
Also on the Haydock card was the Victor Ludorum, a Triumph Hurdle trial in which Porticello was sent off at longs odds on and won as those odds suggested. I’ve been a bit lukewarm about him so far, and as visually impressive as this might have looked too, a 112 timefigure that saw him come home unchallenged after some rather underwhelming rivals were unable to keep tabs on him mid race, doesn’t make me think he’s yet up to chinning some of the better juveniles he’s bound to come up against in his next couple of starts, even under heavy conditions.
The Galloping Bear landed the Grand National Trial in a 129 timefigure after Bristol De Mai had still looked to be going well approaching two out. The long run in rather accentuated the distances and reflected rather unfairly on the runner-up, who still looks capable of high-class form, at least in handicaps if not in the top level-weight events.
Down at Ascot, another meeting run on heavy ground, 2021 Ryanair runner-up Fakir d’Oudaries landed the feature event, the Betfair Chase, by just under two lengths from Two For Gold who arrived here fresh from a career-best effort in the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield’s Winter Millions meeting.
This looks decent if short of high-class form, as a 150 timefigure suggests, but for me the race served more than anything else to banish any lingering Cheltenham hopes for Mister Fisher, Lostintranslation, Saint Calvados and Waiting Patiently (now retired).
The supporting Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase and Listed Swinley Chase (a Limited Handicap) went to Does He Know and Fortescue in timefigures of 142 and 135 respectively.
Does He Know’s race was run at a stronger gallop, three seconds faster to three out than the Limited Handicap, and in keeping on as well as he did Does He Know advanced his timefigure profile once again while still looking a bit short of the level set by the top novice staying chasers.
Fortescue might have reversed Ladbrokes Trophy form with Fiddlerontheroof in the Swinley but some late-race sectionals suggest to me the performance of the runner-up has gone under-appreciated. A 146 timefigure is a stone below the 160 he posted in the Ladbroke when nearly a distance clear of the third horse home Brahma Bull (Fortescue was seventh) but he covered the distance from the third last (where he was still in rear) to the last much faster than anything else.
Those sectionals suggest that Fiddlerontheroof almost certainly did too much in a short space of time which to me explains why, on his first run for three months, he couldn’t quite last home after going a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Sectionals have him the ‘moral winner’ by a couple of lengths and he looks another potential Gold Cup runner for his yard.
It’s doubtful that Goshen would beat Honeysuckle even if the Champion Hurdle was taken right-handed, but he’d give pretty much every other hurdler in training a race even if he didn’t have to be at his best winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton for the second year running to put a line through the Champion Hurdle hopes of runner-up Adagio.
A 148 timefigure is 11lb below the one he posted last year, not because he’s deteriorated since but because he didn’t go flat out early (he ran the distance from the first hurdle jumped to the third last only two seconds faster than did the 107-rated Flowing Cadenza in the later two-mile five hurdle) and only started to race seriously between three out and two out.
One horse who might make Honeysuckle work a bit harder, however, is Teahupoo, who posted a 159 when winning the Grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle by eleven lengths from the useful Darasso. Sectional comparisons with the earlier two-mile maiden are made more difficult by the fact that race was run at a crawl, but Teahupoo still came home from two out getting on for four seconds faster.
Five of Teahupoo’s six races in Ireland have been on right-handed tracks but unlike Goshen he isn’t one-dimensional having won both his starts going the other way, for all a 12-length defeat of Quilixios in receipt of 4lb last November doesn’t looks as impressive now as it did at the time.
On the same card Melon landed his first win since 2019 in the Red Mills Chase in a 158 timefigure, 13lb faster than Blue Sari managed in the following beginners. On this evidence, Blue Sari is clearly good enough to head to Cheltenham but seems set to go to Fairyhouse instead.
History suggests that anyone intending to follow the winners at any of the Saturday meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Gowran should they roll up at Cheltenham, as a good number of them are bound to do, ought to tread very carefully, however.
Whether it’s because of the timing before the Festival and often on bad ground, or the races rarely fall to top-class horses, it’s worth noting that of the 65 qualifiers since 2014 that have gone on to Prestbury Park just two - O’Faolains Boy in the RSA for Rebecca Curtis and Duc Des Genievres in the Arkle – have managed to follow up.
If that statistic isn’t damning enough, only six other winners managed to finish in the first three, and it’s not as if there weren’t some very big names (Cue Card and Clan Des Obeaux, for example) in the sample.
Hillcrest’s trainer Henry Daly hasn’t had a winner at any of the fixtures in the timeframe, but I suspect he’ll be slightly concerned to learn that even someone with as many trainers’ championships as Paul Nicholls has managed just one second place with his eleven qualifiers.
Not only that but the Albert Bartlett Trial has the worst Cheltenham record of all the weekend races just run. Seven winners have gone on to Prestbury Park since 2014 and none has finished closer than fifth.
Hugely promising he might be but I think I’d want a fair bit bigger than 5/1 before backing Hillcrest for the Albert Bartlett.
