Hear this – Betfred 2000 Guineas winner Bow Echo is top-class say Timeform handicappers

One of the most important aspects of racing analysis is having the capability to alter your opinion when presented with compelling new evidence. The 2000 Guineas looked a relatively ordinary renewal pre-race, Gstaad’s 117 rating the lowest top-rated this century while only he and one other had previously been successful in a Group 1 and the winners of the Middle Park, Dewhurst and Futurity were all absent.

It took just under 96 seconds for things to look a lot brighter as Bow Echo put up a top-class effort to win the 2000 Guineas, recording a rating of 131, pulling 2¾ lengths clear of Gstaad whose rating of 123 is up to the sort of level that is typically required to win the first classic of the year.

Only five horses have earned a higher rating in winning the 2000 Guineas since 1970 (the European pattern was introduced the following year), and all of those are legends of the turf, Brigadier Gerard 141 (1971), El Gran Senor 136 (1984), Nijinsky 135 (1970), Frankel 135 (2011) and Dancing Brave 134 (1986).

Three of those horses on that list went on to contest the Derby, but Bow Echo isn’t even entered for the Epsom classic and it’s easy to see why on pedigree, his sire 2014 Guineas winner Night of Thunder while his dam and dam sire were both sprinters. Bow Echo looks set to stay at 1m for the immediate future and it’s hard to see what might lower his colours in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

Saber could be up for the Cup

The first two days of the Guineas meeting weren’t all about the first classic however and the King Charles II Stakes from Friday is worth examining in greater detail. It’s a race that has been a stepping stone to Group company in the past, Cosmic Year finishing runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas after beating subsequent Park Stakes winner Marvelman last year while Shouldvebeenaring was placed in a Group 1 sprint after his 2023 success. 2022 winner Noble Truth followed up in the Jersey Stakes and that was the mooted target for Saber Strike by trainer William Haggas after his eye-catching success.

Settled in last, Saber Strike showed striking speed in the latter part of the race, recording a time of 33.73 secs for the last 3f, including covering 2f – 1f out in a blistering 10.83 seconds. Now, rather than barking them out like a contestant on the fictious gameshow Numberwang from That Mitchell and Webb sketch show, sectional times are best put into context and the best context for them is to compare them to the overall race time.

Anyone who has watched much racing at a track like Lingfield throughout the winter will be able to confirm that even relatively low-grade animals can record eye-catching bursts at the end of a race, providing the gallop was slow enough for long enough in the early stages. For that reason, Timeform calculate upgrades to overall timefigures, based on closing finishing speeds, adjusted for how much slower or faster than par they finished.

Make no mistake, Saber Strike finished a lot faster than par (so did the runner-up, but not to quite the same extent), but what makes Saber Strike’s effort noteworthy is that he still recorded a pretty good overall timefigure of 92. When applying his sectional upgrade to that (Timeform’s sectional model calculates an upgrade based on last 3f, last 2f and last 1f and suggests an increase of 17-21 lb) it gives Saber Strike a potential sectional rating in the 109 – 113 range, which is a big factor in him getting an updated form rating of 112p.

That figure is higher than was awarded to Coppull (110) for winning the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot the same afternoon, and while the Jersey might seem the logical target for Saber Strike, his Newmarket success shows he has all the tools needed to thrive in a well-run race back at 6f and the Commonwealth Cup is worth strong consideration.

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