Matt Cooper looks ahead to the final-round action from The Memorial Tournament and has a two-ball double to consider.
Golf betting tips: The Memorial Tournament final round preview
2pts two-ball win double Henley to beat Bradley and Schauffele to beat Aberg at 13/5 (Sky Bet)
He gave the field a bit of a chance, but at the 54-hole stage of the Memorial Tournament Scottie Scheffler was doing Scottie Scheffler things. He heads into Sunday’s final round on 10-under-par 206, four shots clear of Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka and Adam Hadwin with the PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg another two shots back in a share of fifth.
The errors came on the front nine with a bogey-6 at the fifth (his third bogey on a par-5 this week) and a triple bogey-7 on the par-4 ninth that started with a first drive that clattered out of bounds, followed by another five blows with his second ball. He atoned with three birdies on both nines before closing with another bogey to give the chasers a little hope.
He’s been okay from the tee (ranking 22nd for Strokes Gained, 0.450), not so good around the green (41st, -1.196), good on the greens (12th, 2.890) but superb with his approach work (first, 11.254 – Hadwin is next best on 7.675). He’s currently gaining 10.5 strokes on the field from tee to green which is down from his absurd 20.7 through all four rounds of this tournament 12 months ago. He finished one shot outside the play-off that week because he lost 8.5 shots on the greens. He’s 10 better than that currently.
On the brink of his fifth victory for the season (he’d be the first player on the PGA Tour to do so since Justin Thomas in 2016/7), what’s notable is the quality of his wins: the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, the Masters, the RBC Heritage and now potentially this week. All signature event fields.
“I wish I could have 18 back, but overall I think I played pretty solid,” he said afterwards in typically straightforward fashion. “Just got a couple bad breaks and it’s going to happen around this golf course. I mean, the golf course is really challenging.”
His playing partner on Saturday, Hadwin, didn’t sound too optimistic after his round. “I don’t know if I have a chance tomorrow,” he said. “You give four shots to the best player in the world, it’s kind of difficult. He’s as solid as they come and No. 1 for a reason. He’s far and above the No. 1 player in the world, I believe, especially after watching today. The sound that he hits it with and the ball flight and the shape of the shots, I mean, I don’t expect him to lose this golf tournament, so one of us is going to have to make a run tomorrow.”
He added that “I did post 66 earlier this week, so hopefully I’ll do it again tomorrow” but he knew even then he’d need some help from Scheffler.
Straka was equally in awe of the leader. “If Scottie does what Scottie does, it’s hard to beat him,” he said. “But honestly, if anything, it might make it a little bit easier because if he’s playing his game there’s not really much I can do.” He did twice qualify that by adding the ease factor was “especially on a Saturday”.
Morikawa will play with Scheffler in the final round, a repeat of the Masters last day pairing after which Morikawa said: “Watching Scottie today, I know it’s doable for me. I’ve just got to put the pieces together.” Since then he has again played in the final group at a major where the result was similarly disappointing. He’s doing what he has to do, though: keeping knocking until the door opens.
“Scottie’s not really coming backwards,” he acknowledged. “I’ve got to play some steady golf. That doesn’t mean I got to press. Look, if I shoot 4-under tomorrow, I think I’m going to be pretty happy. You have a game plan, and see how many shots you can execute on a Sunday when you’re roughly within a handful of shots."
A tiny bit of cheer for the chasers? Scheffler’s final round 71 last time out broke a run of 10 consecutive final rounds in the 60s and it was the first time he’d needed more than 70 shots in a final round since a 73 in the Palmer Invitational in March last year. You might easily argue that makes another 70 or better all the more likely.
Scheffler is best price 2/9, Morikawa 10/1, Straka 20/1, Hadwin 30/1, Schauffele 35/1 and Aberg 45/1.
Straka is tempting. He won on a Nicklaus track on the Korn Ferry Tour, won at the Nicklaus renovated PGA National and has two top fives at the Nicklaus co-designed Harbour Town. He also went low to win the John Deere Classic last year (with a Sunday 62). That’s all good but he’s played on a Sunday four times at Muirfield Village and three times he didn’t break 75 (the exception was the 2020 Workday Charity Ope when the set-up was softer).
We’ll build a final round two-ball double instead and start with RUSSELL HENLEY over Keegan Bradley.
Henley leads the head-to-head counts in the final rounds since the start of this January, and also since January 2023 and January 2022. Bradley has also had recent Sunday woes on the course – failing to break 77 in his last three final rounds. Henley has a 75 himself last year but is 3-for-5 at going sub-70.
Muirfield Village Sundays can be tough and SCHAUFFELE’s experience of them should give him the edge over Aberg for whom it will be an introduction.
Schauffele has only once needed more than 72 shots in six final rounds and four times he’s beaten par. The double pays around 5/2 with the majority of firms and a little bigger at Sky Bet.
Posted at 0928 BST on 09/06/24
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