Andrew Asquith, Nic Doggett and John Ingles discuss the feature Saturday action with jumps racing on Scottish National day at Ayr and Classic trials at Newbury to enjoy.
Albert Einstein is coming over for the Greenham – do you see him as a serious 2000 Guineas contender or not?
Andrew Asquith: It would be folly to rule out any Aidan O’Brien runner given he has a knack for getting his horses to bounce back from poor efforts, Auguste Rodin and City of Troy, both of whom disappointed in the 2000 Guineas before going on to win the Derby next time, two recent examples. Albert Einstein failed to meet expectations on his return in the Gladness Stakes over seven furlongs, doing too much in the early stages and failing to pick up in the closing stages. It may be he was in dire need of the run given he looked to finish tired, and it is interesting connections are having another crack at this trip. He wouldn’t be on my radar for the Guineas on that showing, but on Saturday we’ll learn more. I’d want to see him win impressively and be strong at the finish if I’m to change my mind, though.
Nic Doggett: The hood’s interesting, isn’t it? (Aidan O’Brien’s record when putting a hood on a horse for the first time is 14 from 70 at 20%) Seven furlongs on heavy ground first time out (after a year’s absence) was always going to take Albert Einstein out of his comfort zone, but there are no excuses on Saturday with Alparslan and Aqpan likely to ensure an honest tempo on decent ground. If he was mine, I’d focus more on winning at shorter like his late sire Wootton Bassett rather than trying to eke out his stamina for the Guineas, and I think it would be some training performance for him to win there next month. Not for me, Clive.
John Ingles: Not as things stand, but I’m prepared to change my mind if he comes through the Newbury test with flying colours. You can see why they’re giving him another chance to prove himself a serious contender after his no-show on heavy ground in the Gladness Stakes last month, but with that run under his belt and much better ground this time, it will be much harder to make excuses for him if he doesn’t improve on that effort. Zavateri was often underestimated last season, but he represents some of the best two-year-old form, including with Albert Einstein’s stablemate Gstaad, so this should be a proper test of his Guineas credentials.
Could there be a 1000 Guineas springer in the Fred Darling?
Andrew Asquith: Touleen is currently the shortest price for the 1000 Guineas in the Fred Darling field and will likely start favourite on Saturday too. She was impressive winning her first two starts last season, but she looked uneasy on the Rowley Mile when a beaten favourite in the Rockfel when last seen, so that would be a concern. Several of these don’t hold entries in the 1000 Guineas, including my idea of the winner, the David Menuisier-trained Stimulative Trip. She’s from a yard that don’t get many first-time-out juvenile winners but she was very impressive on her sole start last season over the same course and distance as the Fred Darling. Stimulative Trip didn’t have the smoothest passage through, but she settled matters with a smart turn of foot on the stands’ rail, coming home powerfully under a hand ride. That form looks solid on the whole, and there should be plenty more to come from her. If she wins in good style, connections will surely have to think about supplementing her under serious consideration.
Nic Doggett: Touleen is already quite short for next month's race, and I don’t think any performance other than a demolition job (which looks unlikely as she didn’t handle the Dip last year) against these opponents would see her shorten dramatically. I think the only horse whose odds could tumble would be K Sarra if she were to win well. The Southwell winner is 33s for the Guineas at the moment, but it’s worth remembering that her brother Pride Of Arras won the Dante on his second start and was then sent off 4/1 for the Derby as a result.
John Ingles: It has been a Guineas trial in name only in recent years but there are a handful of potential improvers in this year’s field who could at least earn a place in the field if making a big enough impression. Touleen made a good start here last August but didn’t seem to handle the track when a short price for the Rockfel Stakes, so that would be something of a concern for her Guineas prospects, even if she were to get back on track on here. Her most interesting rival could be Domina Ignis with Kevin Philippart de Foy’s horses running well at present. She was an impressive winner of her only start at Southwell last year and could easily build on that.
The Spring Cup Handicap looks as competitive as ever, have you a fancy?
Andrew Asquith: Stem didn’t manage to win last season, but he made a winning debut at Newbury by nine and a half lengths on his sole start as a two-year-old, and his best effort since came when runner-up over this course and distance on his final start last season. That form could hardly have worked out any better, too, the progressive winner going on to win at Haydock after, the third successful at Yarmouth next time and twice since in Bahrain, while the fourth won a York handicap and has also tasted victory twice in Bahrain, also. Stem returns off just a 3lb higher mark, which makes him look attractively handicapped, Richard Hannon continues in great form, and his liking for the track makes him look a big player in a typically competitive renewal.
Nic Doggett: I agree with Andy, Stem is definitely interesting, but I still think there’s some juice in the mark of recent Lincoln winner Urban Lion. He got a bit less cover than some of the other horses that finished placed last month, racing on the far side, and a 4 lb rise for that win may not be his ceiling. This race looks perfect, too, as the Jack Channon-trained five-year-old has already shown his liking for the track when second to Ebt’s Guard in this 12 months ago. He’s improved plenty since and makes plenty of appeal at 15/2.
John Ingles: Back In Black looks interesting as a fairly unexposed type for James Fanshawe. He was a winner first time out at this meeting last year over seven furlongs when beating Shout and meets that rival again on the same terms here. Back To Black was off for four months after that successful reappearance but put up some useful efforts in defeat when he came back later in the year, including when runner-up to the smart Cerulean Bay at Goodwood. That was his only try so far at a mile, so he’s unexposed at this trip and the stable is in form.
It’s the Scottish Grand National up at Ayr, have you one on the radar for this?
Andrew Asquith: King of Answers shaped very well in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and he looks just the right sort for the demands of a Scottish National. He wasn’t best positioned on that occasion, struggling to go with the strong early gallop, still well off the pace going out for the final circuit, but he made good inroads and did well to finish as close as he did while also pulling well clear of the remainder. A 3lb rise looks lenient and, provided he is able to sit handier on Saturday, he must have a big chance with this even longer trip sure to suit.
Nic Doggett: The forecast looks a bit hairy, so I think you are going to need a horse that acts well in rain-softened ground. Despite the demands of the race, novices have a good record in it, and I like one this year: 15/2 shot Quebecois. He’s always had a touch of class, being a half-brother to Albert Bartlett winner Brindisi Breeze, and he ran a fine race in defeat in the Ultima last month. His beating of the (very well-handicapped) Jump Allen at this meeting last year reads well and nothing he’s done since – including on soft ground - suggests that this race won’t suit him.
John Ingles: I like the look of novice Chasingouttheblues from down the bottom of the weights as he looks to be crying out for a real test of stamina such as this. He came from a seemingly impossible position to get off the mark over fences at Wetherby in December and has been strong at the finish again to win his last couple of starts at Catterick and Carlisle. He found plenty to get the better of Nicky Henderson’s Fierce Warrior in one of the finals in the Go North series for that latest win and while this will be tougher, four miles plus could be right up his street.
Any other Ayr fancies?
Andrew Asquith: Dan Skelton continues to pour it on in his record-breaking season, smashing through the £4million barrier and on the brink of amassing £5million in total prize money. It really is remarkable and he can have further success with Twistthenightaway in the mares’ handicap hurdle (14:55). She had seemingly been brought along with handicaps in mind, but was easy to back when opening her account on handicap debut at Newcastle. That didn’t make a difference as she won with a bit up her sleeve, well suited by the step up to three miles, and she progressed further when following up at Bangor in February. Twistthenightaway looks progressive, so a further 6lb rise in the weights doesn’t look excessive, and she’s just the sort to stay ahead of the handicapper for a while yet.
Nic Doggett: Matata didn’t get far when pulled up at the ninth in the Topham last week, but the Scotty Brand Handicap Chase – for which he’s a general 12/1 chance - could prove a more suitable test, and he doesn’t look handicapped out of things on 158 given the authority of his Cheltenham win off 154 and his Windsor win off 155. The strong pace will suit as he stays further than two miles these days, and, having kept some illustrious company this season, he should appreciate this less daunting task.
John Ingles: I’d been wondering when we’d see Apache Tribe again after he absolutely bolted up at Ayr in February so it’s good to see him making a return visit in the novice hurdle at 16:15. Noel Kelly did very well with him as he’d previously won a bumper at Listowel by a wide margin as well, but it looks significant that he’s now with Gordon Elliott who has him in a Grade 1 at Punchestown at the end of the month. He tanked through the race before storming away over a slightly shorter trip here last time which was on heavy ground, so it’s good to see there’s ‘soft’ in the going description at Ayr this weekend so he should have conditions to suit again.
More from Sporting Life
- Free bets
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
