Cheltenham Festival Trends: WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham Festival trends: WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

• 10/10 - Aged 9 or younger
• 10/10 - Previous Grade 1 winner
• 9/10 - Won last time out
• 7/10 - Won or placed at Festival previously

Previous form at the Cheltenham Festival is important, as is (even more so) having already secured a victory at the top level.

Of those towards the head of the market, novice Royale Pagaille falls down on both of these key statistics, should his connections end up sending him down the Gold Cup route.

Champ falls down on the ‘last-time-out’ trend, but in fairness he ran well over an inadequate trip, so it is difficult to be too negative about his chance, especially as a light campaign seems to be a positive in relation to the Gold Cup these days. He is also a second-season chaser (5 of the past 10 winners fell into this bracket) and the previous season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA) is often a key guide. He does, therefore, have a decent profile for the race.

However, the pair who match all four key trends are AL BOUM PHOTO and A Plus Tard, with marginal preference for the dual winner, as we know that he has what it takes to win the race.

Four of the past eight winners had a seasonal record of one run, one win, and he has followed the exact same path back to Cheltenham, via Tramore on New Year’s Day. He very much still sets the standard.

Fellow Irish challenger A Plus Tard is two years his younger, but has had just two less runs over fences. His Cheltenham Festival form is strong, having won the novices’ handicap in 2019 and finishing third in last year’s Ryanair, and he stayed on strongly on his first try over 3m, when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas.

That form was franked in the Irish Gold Cup (and also by Ryanair-bound Allaho) and he rates a serious danger to the two-time winner.

Two of the past 11 winners (Imperial Commander and Don Cossack) won the Gold Cup in their third season over fences, having run in the Ryanair 12 months earlier.

Get money off the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival 2021 Betting Guide (in association with Sporting Life) using our promo code - it's OUT NOW!

Order your copy of the 'Cheltenham Bible' - the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival 2021 Betting Guide, featuring contributions from our Ben Linfoot and Matt Brocklebank.

DOWNLOAD THE FREE MINI GUIDE HERE: https://bit.ly/cheltenham2021

GET £4 OFF THE BOOK: Sporting Life users can get £4 off the print, digital or print/digital bundle using the promo code: festival21

CLICK HERE TO ORDER YOUR COPY