Cheltenham Festival trends 2021 including Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle

Unibet Champion Hurdle

• 8/10 - Unbeaten this season
• 8/10 - Won or placed at the Festival previously
• 8/10 - Aged 6-8
• 9/10 - Run 12 or fewer times over hurdles

SELECTION: HONEYSUCKLE

Last year’s Mares’ Hurdle winner HONEYSUCKLE ticks all of the boxes from a trends perspective, and can enhance the fine recent record of mares in the race (2 winners from just 5 runners during the past decade). She arrives at Cheltenham on the back of a career-best performance in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and remains unbeaten in 10 starts over hurdles.

Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival 2021 Betting Guide

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Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

• 8/10 - Started 6/1 or shorter
• 8/10 - Won or placed at the Festival previously
• 10/10 - Aged between 7-10
• 8/10 - Run 2 or 3 times this season

SELECTION: POLITOLOGUE

Runner-up in 2019, last year’s winner POLITOLOGUE has one crucial edge over current market leader Chacun Pour Soi, and that is previous Festival form.

Winner of the Tingle Creek on his reappearance, he was seemingly beaten fair-and-square at Ascot last time, but returning to Cheltenham is very much in his favour.

He hails from a yard that has won the race on no fewer than six occasions, and he is a viable each-way alternative to the short-priced favourite, who will be bidding to provide Willie Mullins with a very first win in the race.

Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival 2021 Betting Guide

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Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

• 10/10 - Aged 9 or younger
• 8/10 - Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
• 7/10 - Won or placed at Cheltenham
• 6/10 - Second-season hurdler

SELECTION: THYME HILL

The last of the four key trends is becoming more and more influential, with those six second-season hurdlers to win in recent years coming during the past seven years.

This suggests that the younger, up-and-coming horse is what is required, and the past three winners contested the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier.

Both point towards THYME HILL, who finished an unlucky fourth on Gold Cup day last year, and has a good record at the track, having won a Grade 2 novices' hurdle (November 2019) and also having been placed in two bumpers at this course (including the 2019 Weatherbys Champion Bumper).

The age statistic also speaks in his favour, as although the past 10 winners were aged nine or younger, 28 of the past 31 winners (when delving much deeper) were aged between six and eight.

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WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

• 10/10 - Aged 9 or younger
• 10/10 - Previous Grade 1 winner
• 9/10 - Won last time out
• 7/10 - Won or placed at Festival previously

SELECTION: AL BOUM PHOTO

Previous form at the Cheltenham Festival is important, as is (even more so) having already secured a victory at the top level.

Of those towards the head of the market, novice Royale Pagaille falls down on both of these key statistics, should his connections end up sending him down the Gold Cup route.

Champ falls down on the ‘last-time-out’ trend, but in fairness he ran well over an inadequate trip, so it is difficult to be too negative about his chance, especially as a light campaign seems to be a positive in relation to the Gold Cup these days. He is also a second-season chaser (5 of the past 10 winners fell into this bracket) and the previous season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA) is often a key guide. He does, therefore, have a decent profile for the race.

However, the pair who match all four key trends are AL BOUM PHOTO and A Plus Tard, with marginal preference for the dual winner, as we know that he has what it takes to win the race.

Four of the past eight winners had a seasonal record of one run, one win, and he has followed the exact same path back to Cheltenham, via Tramore on New Year’s Day. He very much still sets the standard.

Fellow Irish challenger A Plus Tard is two years his younger, but has had just two less runs over fences. His Cheltenham Festival form is strong, having won the novices’ handicap in 2019 and finishing third in last year’s Ryanair, and he stayed on strongly on his first try over 3m, when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas.

That form was franked in the Irish Gold Cup (and also by Ryanair-bound Allaho) and he rates a serious danger to the two-time winner.

Two of the past 11 winners (Imperial Commander and Don Cossack) won the Gold Cup in their third season over fences, having run in the Ryanair 12 months earlier.

Cheltenham Festival 2021 - The ultimate guide!