Cheltenham Festival tips: Triumph Hurdle debate over Lulamba and East India Dock

Ed Chamberlin – A rollercoaster ride already

I have some serious regrets here as Lulamba is the horse I put forward on the Christmas Podcast for the Triumph, I thought I’d been very clever and backed him at 25/1, others got 33s. I got to Ascot on Saturday morning and chatted to the ITV pundits, mentioning no names but someone strongly linked to Seven Barrows, and the vibe that morning wasn’t that strong.

And the vibes around the Gary Moore horse (Mondo Man) was very, very strong! So you can guess what I did – I got out of the bet. What an idiot I am. But I have hope, I think I have a three-pronged sense of hope in that, firstly, I’m not sure about the race itself. The Moore horse pulled like absolute stink in the race, the third is good without being brilliant.

Then there's the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ entry - I was absolutely thrilled by this. And you just wonder in a Triumph. Listen, I was there on Saturday and he’s so Sir Gino-eque in terms of looks. I mean, he’s a chaser of the future, and there just might be a speedy one or two in the Triumph to beat him.

But that was very, very impressive. I felt like an absolute idiot on Saturday afternoon, crestfallen I was.

David Johnson – Lulamba ‘just’ 129P with Timeform

I wonder about the Flat rating (111) of Ascot runner-up Mondo Man... while not misleading as such, I don’t think he was anything like that level on this hurdling debut. So if you want to pick holes in the form you can do, Timeform have rated him (Lulamba) just 129. Unsurprisingly, he does have that large P because he does look as though he can very much step up on that.

But just for context, this time last year when Sir Gino won the Finesse Hurdle (Cheltenham) in impressive fashion, he was rated 143 after that. So, it does just show that the difference in terms of what Lulamba did on his hurdling debut compared to what Sir Gino did when he came over.

Now, it's partly what I often say and that it’s down to having the opportunity to run to high levels which is crucial, and when you're only running in a small juvenile race, it's much more difficult to run to a high rating than it is when obviously Sir Gino was running in a Graded race.

So, for Lulamba to do what he's done, you can't really knock him but he does need to go and step up the ladder to justify the kind of prices that he's operating at the minute.

Billy Nash – Too early to jump to conclusions

Like the lads, I was impressed with Lulamba but, a bit like DJ, I think the form is a little bit sceptical, and certainly on ratings he has a lot to find, even with East India Dock at this stage, who has a Timeform rating 144. So Lulamba has a lot to do to come up to that, I'm not saying he won't but, like I said, this division hasn't really taken shape for me yet.

Sauvignon, who runs in the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle on Saturday I suppose would give us a tenuous line between the British and the Irish juvenile form as when he won in Auteuil he beat a horse called Sony Bill, who has since gone to Willie Mullins and finished third to Hello Neighbour in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas. He ran OK so it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on in that race this weekend.

It'll also be interesting to see this Mambonumberfive who cost 450,000 euro and has joined Ben Pauling. That looks a big price tag for a horse that hasn’t won a race yet.

I just don't think it's a division that's really developed properly yet over here in Ireland, and we've still got a lot of potential. But a lot will be sorted out, I think, in the next couple of weeks - certainly the DRF and the big juvenile hurdle there.

Hopefully, we'll have a big clash, there’s the one-two from the big race at Leopardstown over Christmas – Hello Neighbour of Gavin Cromwell's, who is unbeaten. He won twice on the Flat, and that was his debut over hurdles. He beat a filly of Willie Mullins’, who wasn't particularly well fancied on the day - Lady Vega Allen. She came from a long way back and you'd expect her to improve.

Sainte Lucie emerged on New Year's Eve at Punchestown, she was really impressive but it was only a maiden hurdle. She won it really well, she looks like a nice filly, I'd say she's quite good. And there will no doubt be one or two more, Willie’s got a couple of interesting ones entered this weekend, his one in Nass on Sunday, called Charlus, who got a very favourable mention in his Sporting Life stable tour at the beginning of the season. A potential Triumph horse Willie called him back then, so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on.

Graham Cunningham – Slick-jumping Dock the pick at prices

I get it completely, the Sky Bet Supreme entry for Lulamba. Hors La Loi was the last four-year-old to win the Supreme. Binocular had a go and ran really well (second to Captain Cee Bee), so it can be done if you’re very good, and he looked very good but I don’t think he absolutely stood out on the clock last weekend, he was slower than the mares' hurdle overall.

He was a bit faster than the mares’ hurdle and the Altobelli race from the last, and he's a very good-looking horse with tremendous potential, but I do think it seemed something of an overreaction myself, and can't wait to see East India Dock this weekend, because he's got runs on the board and just watch that horse jump. He is absolutely mustard.

Look, it’s 13/8 Lulamba for the Triumph Hurdle, 13/2 in places East India Dock, so I wouldn’t need a road map to know which of the two is better value at those prices.

I’m really looking forward to seeing East India Dock this weekend, though. We also have Sauvignon in the trial, a Johnny de la Hey (owned) horse and there are one or two others who have come from France and cost plenty of money as Billy mentions.

Sauvignon looks really promising. I could be wrong, I don’t think he’s a super quick horse, we’ll see how he jumps British hurdles. He’s had a good break and I think that was always Paul Nicholls’ intention, to get him going in the New Year.

But East India Dock has got the high rating already from Timeform, but most of all he’s got that slick hurdling technique that always catches the eye in a good juvenile, so I think he’s going to take a power of beating this weekend.

Published at 0930 GMT on 23/01/25

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