Our form expert Ben Linfoot picks out four horses for whom redemption could come in the way of a Cheltenham Festival victory come March.
These poor-quality Saturdays have to be taken on the chin when you’re firmly in the ‘less is more’ camp, but they don’t half make you pine for the good stuff.
I had my doubts whether a bunch of veterans could successfully carry a Saturday on their shoulders plodding around Sandown, but perhaps that is enough to brighten up a dreary early January weekend as we wait for highlights like the Thyestes Chase, Festival Trials Day and the Dublin Racing Festival in three to four weeks’ time.
The end of January – early February slot is the perfect time for a final run ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March and Trials Day at Prestbury Park, plus the DRF at Leopardstown, really is ‘Premier’ quality.
But for now thoughts are dreamily swaying to those four days in March and on the back of a bumper festive programme I’ve come up with an alternative Festival multiple, if, like me, you’re of a forgiving nature.
1. FARREN GLORY for the Sky Bet Supreme (12/1 – Sky Bet prices)
Today would’ve been Tolworth day in the past but that Grade 1 has moved to Aintree on Boxing Day now under the new banner of the ‘Formby Novices’ Hurdle’ and it remains to be seen how much of a pointer this race becomes for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
FARREN GLORY was sent off the 11/5 favourite for the inaugural Formby on the back of his Royal Bond win and Gordon Elliott’s horse was absolutely tanking in the lead when coming to grief two from home.
Nothing has stamped their authority on the Supreme Novices’ antepost market as yet with the Nicky Henderson-trained Jeriko Du Reponet assuming favouritism after winning two minor races at Newbury, but Farren Glory looks a player on both of his runs at Fairyhouse and Aintree.
The Crime: Falling two out in the Formby Hurdle at Aintree when cruising in the lead.
Worth Forgiving Because: He looks to have the gears to have a say in what looks, at this stage, an open Supreme Novices’.
2. STAGE STAR for the Ryanair (13/2)
Not many horses try and win handicaps off marks like 166 but that is what STAGE STAR was tasked with in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on January 1.
He didn’t travel with his usual zest or jump with his usual fluency, Harry Cobden pulling him up before two out allowing the 11/10 favourite to trot back in rather than being ridden for a remote position up the hill.
Perhaps the heavy ground was to blame, perhaps it was the task at the weights, perhaps it was just an off day, but with conditions unlikely to be as testing on the third day of the Festival he can bounce back to claim Ryanair Chase glory come March.
Allaho is favourite for the race but he simply doesn’t look the force of old, while Stage Star is an eight-year-old second-season chaser with a superb record on the Cheltenham New Course – bar his New Year’s Day blip.
The Crime: Being pulled up in handicap company on his likely final start before the Ryanair.
Worth Forgiving Because: Has an otherwise perfect record on the Cheltenham New Course and Paul Nicholls has plenty of time to put him right for what is the ideal race for him.
3. SIR GERHARD for the Stayers’ Hurdle (12/1)
Unless French superstar Theleme comes over and blows them away the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle looks the most open championship race of the lot.
You feel there are several cards still to be played in the division; the odd chaser returning to hurdles, for example, perhaps even two-time winner Flooring Porter, while the Cleeve is often the most significant pointer on Trials Day.
But it could be we saw a significant Stayers’ Hurdle clue on New Year’s Eve when SIR GERHARD got his career back on track over 2m3f on heavy ground in a non-graded hurdle at Punchestown.
He beat inferior opposition that day, but he looked much happier back over hurdles and, crucially, shaped like a three-miler, staying on strongly to beat a bunch of horses that also had plenty of stamina reserves in their cannons.
The Crime: Not kicking on from his 2022 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle win at Cheltenham, his novice chasing career not going to plan as he struggled with the bigger obstacles.
Worth Forgiving Because: He has untapped potential over staying trips over hurdles in what looks an open division. And he’s trained by Willie Mullins.
4. GERRI COLOMBE for the Cheltenham Gold Cup (9/1)
Being beaten 23 lengths by the reigning Gold Cup champion and now even-money favourite Galopin Des Champs admittedly isn’t the ideal prep for GERRI COLOMBE’s assault on the Blue Riband.
However, he has doubled in price to 9/1 now and while everything was in Galopin Des Champs’ favour at Leopardstown, things went against Gerri Colombe.
This horse is a dour stayer and they didn’t go quick enough for him in the Savills Chase, the well-positioned Galopin Des Champs using his gears to skip away from them off the front end having raced on what was probably more favourable ground out wide.
Gerri Colombe was driven before the home turn to try and combat the pace and he stuck more to the inside, and, while he was well beaten on the day by Galopin Des Champs, I actually thought he showed plenty of guts to keep his record of never been out of the first two intact.
The Crime: Getting hammered by Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase.
Worth Forgiving Because: A stronger pace and extra distance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup will suit him much more than the assignment he ended up with at Christmas.
*Sky Bet prices correct at 1200 GMT 06/01/24
What is a Lucky 15?
We thought it would be a good idea to explain exactly what a Lucky 15 means and how easy it is to place such a bet. In short, the Lucky 15 is an acca including four elements, although all four bets don’t have to win to produce a profit/return. The selections are combined into one four-fold accumulator, trebles, doubles and individual singles. So, the Lucky 15 can be summed up as follows: 1 accumulator, 4 trebles, 6 double, 4 singles = 15 bets. An each-way Lucky 15 is therefore 30 bets, and you will get a return of some kind if only one horse places.
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