Our Value Bet columnist reacts to some of the weekend's key performances, including an informative novice hurdle at Fairyhouse and a classy novice chase at Naas on Sunday.
Tour de force back up in trip?
How many of Cheltenham’s seven Trials Day winners will follow up at the Festival? I’d be in no rush to 'buy' at over 1.5, and there's a small chance we saw more in the one race at Naas on Sunday - more on that to follow.
On Saturday, Constitution Hill’s three-length defeat of Brentford Hope and the 125-rated Spirits Bay left me feeling particularly nonplussed and his habit - if we can call it that now - of seemingly losing concentration on the long run to the last, which he gave a good whack this time having stood a mile off in the 2023 Champion, will continue to elicit the familiar “flight or fight” responses of sweaty palms and shallow breathing in odds-on backers.
That’s one battle with the bookies I’m happy to stay clear of.
East India Dock looked the part with his accurate jumping but in reality probably only beat a bunch of horses heading for the Fred Winter in the middle of March, while the Cleeve Hurdle merely underlined the fact that the staying hurdlers - in Britain at least - are some way below average at the moment.
Potters Charm’s bubble burst in the last and L’Homme Presse wasn’t even the best horse at the weights on a strict reading of his narrow victory over Stage Star in the Cotswold Chase. The runner-up, who was conceding 4lb, is skipping the Festival for Aintree and the winner’s chances of bridging the gap on Galopin Des Champs from last year are slim - and fairly reflected in his trimmed price around 20/1.
On the flip side, there was one antepost adjustment that I couldn’t quite fathom and that was the decision to double the odds of Whistle Stop Tour for the National Hunt Chase.
He’d already met the qualification criteria for that race, to be run as a handicap this year don’t forget, having had the three chase starts and “been placed first, second, third or fourth in a Steeple Chase with an official distance description of two miles seven and a half furlongs or more”.
Lucinda Russell’s horse had won over precisely that trip in the ‘Paris Pike’ at Kelso in early-December, before following up in decisive fashion over three miles at Ayr earlier this month, and Saturday’s Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase outing - a fourth chase run which wasn't necessarily required and back over two and a half miles - smacked of a Cheltenham reconnaissance mission.
I’d suggest connections, who include part-owner Kenny Alexander of Honeysuckle fame, will have gathered just the kind of information that might have been expected and should be buoyed by the way their progressive seven-year-old (22/1) jumped safely and rallied to the cause after getting badly outpaced when the tempo increased.
The Ultima, which Russell famously won twice with Corach Rambler, could obviously be an alternative option at the Festival but the three and three-quarter-miler was already being mooted in the immediate aftermath of the Ayr success and Sky Bet’s 40/1 NRNB (50s elsewhere) might be a worth a token interest as he won’t be anything like that if showing up in the final race on day one.
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Doncaster’s Virgin Bet Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle has been won by some of the best mares around in the past, Vroum Vroum Mag, La Bague Au Roi and Grand National second Magic Of Light among them.
Magic Of Light landed the Grade 2 a couple of times and her trainer Jessie Harrington was back in familiar territory this weekend after Jetara (BHA rating of 145) knuckled down well in the first-time cheekpieces to hold Kateira (also 145) at bay.
There were seven and a half lengths back to the 137-rated Wyenot so it’s arguably not a race to be raving about but the front two might be well served down the Coral Cup route rather than stepping back up to Grade 1 level, providing Cheltenham is the plan at all for Kateira, who has some cracking Aintree form including a handicap win over Jango Baie and Inthewaterside last April. Maybe the two and a half mile Aintree Hurdle should be priority one.
One who remains in the shadows
The market for the Sky Bet Supreme continues to develop and will no doubt take even greater shape when Willie Mullins' Kopek Des Bordes squares up to stablemate Kaid d’Authie and a host of other promising types at the DRF this coming weekend.
It’s fractionally disappointing that Workahead’s name doesn't feature among the entries for Sunday’s Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, but his trainer Henry De Bromhead was on record after his striking maiden win over Christmas stating he would likely be among those heading straight to Cheltenham without another run.
It’s a pretty bold move to take aim at the Supreme with just two Rules runs under the belt but De Bromhead has clearly seen enough and he won’t mind at all how the form of the Leopardstown race has worked out subsequently.
First up, on January 16, the third horse Springt De La Mare came out to win a beginners chase at Fairyhouse from the De Bromhead-trained favourite Theatre Native, and just two days later the fifth home Jacob’s Ladder won a maiden hurdle at Navan from another De Bromhead-trained favourite in Forty Coats.
Bitter-sweet results for the trainer, no doubt.
On Saturday, Workahead’s seven-length victory over William Munny received yet another boost after the runner-up finished five and a half lengths closer to the well-regarded Kawaboomga in a Fairyhouse maiden. You guessed it, the De Bromhead-trained Koktail Divin was back in third.
So while it's a risk to skip the DRF and go to Cheltenham fresh with such an inexperienced novice, you get the impression De Bromhead - who won the Supreme last year with Slade Steel who did go to Leopardstown en route - knows exactly where he stands with his 14/1 shot this time around, and it's not like there's been a change of plan which is usually a good thing.
The Sunday stars
The aforementioned race on Sunday was the Grade 3 Finlay Ford At Naas Novice Chase, in which the imposing Dancing City justified cramped odds with the minimum of fuss.
Everything about him screams 'future Gold Cup contender' and, granted some cut in the ground at Cheltenham, he's a massive danger to all - Ballyburn included - in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, while it's hard to take anything but a really positive view of the runner-up, Bioluminescene, as well.
Having won a Grade 2 at Limerick on debut over fences over Christmas, she was required to carry a penalty and concede 1lb to Dancing City, which unsurprisingly proved a bridge too far but she jumped and travelled like a consummate professional under Mark Walsh and looks to have booked her spot in the Mrs Paddy Power Chase.
I'd actually go one step further than that - she looks highly likely to go off favourite for last year's winning connections in Gavin Cromwell and JP McManus. The revised 6/1 doesn't look bad business at all.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsPublished at 1500 GMT on 26/01/25
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