Betfred Derby preview: Who is the pick of the British team?

Andrew Asquith - Item

The Andrew Balding-trained ITEM is the shortest priced British-trained horse in the Derby and he’s also the highest rated on Timeform ratings (weight-adjusted 129p) too following his defeat of Action in the Dante at York.

Lingfield Derby Trial one-two Maltese Cross and Bay of Brilliance are rated only 1lb inferior, though for me, there was much more to like about the performance of Item with a view towards the Derby, the way he saw out the mile and a quarter trip on the Knavesmire suggesting he’ll improve further still for the extra two furlongs at Epsom.

He has plenty about him physically, just the sort to keep improving throughout the season, and his appearance at York beforehand suggested he’d come on a bundle for the run. Item looks the most exciting prospect of the British contingent and I’d expect him to lead home the challenge, while he hasn’t much to find on form with Benvenuto Cellini, either, so it is no surprise he’s the closest challenger in the betting.

Ancient Egypt also looked good when making a winning return in the Newmarket Stakes and also promises to be suited by the longer trip in the Derby, but he’ll need to improve another chunk for it, and I don’t see him as a viable challenger to the principals.

Nic Doggett - Item

Owner-breeder Jennifer Dorey’s fondness for Blue Riband runner-up Rebel Rocker was clear in her chat with Nick Luck on Wednesday, and racing could do with the sort of David v Goliath story that a top-three finish for Rebel Rocker would provide. Similarly, the third Balzac was a cheap purchase, although his subsequent (well-beaten) third to Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial suggests that the form is limited.

Clearly, a win for Rebel Rocker is fairly unlikely, but I think if there is a sleeper at very big prices then it could be Poker. A 4.3 million guineas purchase as a yearling, the Amo Racing-owned colt certainly wouldn’t be a rags-to-riches story, but he is related to the Oaks winner Was as well as Derby winner New Approach, and he could hang around from the front if taking his chance. The owner’s Ancient Egypt has a more obvious chance, having impressed at HQ on his return.

Only a neck separated Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance at Lingfield where the strong early pace set by A Taste Of Glory probably gave both horses a good idea of what they’ll face at Epsom.

Both horses quickened nicely there – Bay Of Brilliance on the rail and Maltese Cross out wider – and both have proven they stay the trip well, which is the only question mark surrounding emphatic Dante winner ITEM. It’s a doubt on pedigree (siblings won over shorter, dam won up to 8.5f), but I really like how quickly he has broken from the stalls on his last two starts and that should see him hold the position that Colin Keane wants. He shapes like he will stay, and I think he will win it.

Ian Ogg - Maltese Cross

William Haggas doesn't run horses in the Epsom Classics for the sake of it. When Dancing Rain won the Oaks in 2011 she was his first runner in his 23 years with a licence, in the same period he had run one in the Derby and that won too. Little has changed in his approach to those races so the very fact that Haggas has consistently talked of Maltese Cross as a Derby horse means he has to be taken very seriously and, happily, that brings Bay Of Brilliance into the equation given a neck separated them in the Lingfield Derby Trial with Balzac third and A Taste Of Glory sixth.

It's easy to look at the Derby through a Ballydoyle prism given they've won nine of the last 14 and will likely make it 10 from 15 but their Isaac Newton was weak enough in the market at Lingfield and may just have given Aidan O'Brien and his team a handle on the opposition.

York's Dante looks the stronger race but I prefer the Lingfield pair at the odds (10s and 16s) than Item at 4/1 for all that the Dante has been the dominant domestic trial and Andrew Balding's two previous York winners finished sixth and fifth at Epsom but that could all change once the final field and draw are known. The first two at York were the only two that stayed towards the far side of the course and it's possible that had an effect on the result while he did run around a little in the closing stages which raises questions about the suitability of Epsom and, while there are mitigating circumstances, you don't want to have too many doubts at 4/1.

Ancient Egypt won a novice at Goodwood and galloped at the media day so shouldn't have any bother with the famous cambers but he has more to prove in terms of form and, currently, is priced alongside Bay Of Brilliance at 16s so, again, doesn't appeal at the current odds and I prefer the battling qualities and undoubtable stamina of MALTESE CROSS.

David Ord - Ancient Egypt

Breakfast With The Stars may have been downgraded to the Befred Gallops Morning but I think it attracted a colt this year who can hit the three at Epsom in the shape of ANCIENT EGYPT.

He might not be quite as under-the-radar as he was before gliding around Tattenham Corner on Tuesday, but he's still 16/1 and my pick of the British team.

A beautifully-bred son of Frankel from the family of Midday, he's only taken one mis-step in his career to date when clearly well below form in the Royal Lodge last autumn. He was never stronger than when meeting the rising ground in the Newmarket Stakes on his return and looks the sort to devour a mile-and-a-half. He took the Dip in his stride too.

He'll go forward, is very well-balanced and is just the sort to be placed in a modern Derby.

I liked Item's Dante win but as well as the question marks around his stamina, he was still a little rough around the edges at York and will need to have come forward mentally for this, his acid test.

Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance fought out the finish to the Lingfield Trial, It's interesting the high-regard in which William Haggas holds the former in but there was precious little between the two colts that day and is unlikely to be again on Saturday week.

They're only two pounds below Benventuo Cellini on Timeform ratings going to Epsom, Ancient Egypt is a further five back. But it's early doors for all these colts and I think Charlie Johsnton's charge is one with the potential to take a big step forward on Derby day.

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