Ben Linfoot: Nursery notes and horses to follow for July and August
With the nursery season in full swing Ben Linfoot takes a look at the yards whose two-year-olds thrive at this time of year and selects some horses to follow.
We’re firmly into nursery season now with 11 races of that type already run and won, with a familiar name dominating the early exchanges between trainer and handicapper.
That man is Mark Johnston, who has won three of the 11 nurseries so far this year in which he has consequently improved his career strike-rate for juvenile handicappers in July to above a healthy 20 per cent.
Given his vast amount of runners that’s an impressive strike-rate but it’s no surprise that the £1 level-stake profit and loss is in the negative due to the amount of fancied runners he has in the sphere.
Plenty of trainers are recording positive P&L figures for their career nursery runners at this time of year, though, with Rod Millman (+£35.75), Keith Dalgleish (+£19), Archie Watson (+£17.50) Michael Bell (+£17), Richard Hannon (£14.02) and Ralph Beckett (+£12.25) the pick of these in July.
Charlie Appleby, Saeed bin Suroor and Roger Charlton rarely have nursery runners but when they do they all operate at a 40 per cent strike-rate or above, while Kevin Ryan (17/88 19.32 per cent) has a healthy strike-rate from a much higher number of runners.
In August it's Appleby, David O'Meara and Charlie Hills that look worth following judging by their good strike-rates when the competition is much hotter.
Below are 15 trainers that have been handpicked with their career records in nurseries for July and August displayed, while I’ve selected six horses to follow in the coming weeks with this information in mind.
Ben Linfoot's Nursery Horses To Follow
FASHION FREE (Archie Watson) (engaged Nottingham 2.20, Friday)
Archie Watson has made a lightning start to his training career and has quickly forged a reputation for his work with two-year-olds, so it’s not really a surprise that he’s got a superb record in nurseries. He’s four from seven at 57 per cent with his nursery runners in the month of July, so anything he runs in the division in the coming weeks has to be on the radar. They could include FASHION FREE, engaged at the six-day stage for the MansionBet Nursery Handicap at Nottingham (2.20) on Friday. A filly by first-season sire Muhaarar, she was keen from a very wide draw at Pontefract last time out and did well to get as close as she did in third. The second, Infinite Grace, has subsequently won a Ripon nursery, so off the same mark of 65 Fashion Free looks to have a big chance if she lines up on Friday.
ROSADORA (Ralph Beckett) (engaged Doncaster 6.45, Saturday)
Ralph Beckett has an excellent strike-rate (9/47 19.15 per cent) with his career nursery runners in July and a good P&L (+£12.25), too, so his ROSADORA could be worth backing at Doncaster on Saturday in the Visit theiarambulanceservice.org.uk To Find Out More Fillies’ Nursery Handicap if she turns up. She improved from her debut at Windsor when winning at Lingfield in June and then improved again when fourth in the Listed Randox Health Empress Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket on June 29. She ran on really well after being outpaced but a drastic drop in grade to a Class 4 nursery could see her get her head back in front. Interestingly, Beckett is two from three with his nursery runners at Doncaster, while three of Beckett’s nine nursery winners in the month of July came off marks in the 80s. Rosadora runs off 81 and it’s a rating that could seriously underestimate her.
DADDIES DIVA (Rod Millman)
Getting a two-year-old ready for a nursery in July looks no easy skill, but Rod Millman is a bit of a specialist at this judging by his figures. Ten wins at 19.61 per cent is excellent and his P&L is +£35.75 as well, so this is his time of year. DADDIES DIVA is engaged in the Weatherbys Super Sprint on Saturday and while she would be up against it in that race she’s worth monitoring for future nurseries. The Coach House filly won on her third start in soft ground at Nottingham by two lengths, while good to firm conditions looked to catch her out when she was beaten by Monoski at Pontefract next time. Third under a penalty in a Bath novice stakes last time out, she looks one to consider in nurseries, perhaps when racing against her own sex, and certainly when there’s a bit of cut in the ground.
VENTURA FLAME (Keith Dalgleish)
Keith Dalgleish is another trainer that excels with his nursery horses at this time of year. Six July nursery winners at 33.33 per cent and a +£19 P&L shows this and his VENTURA FLAME looks an ideal type for the sphere in the coming weeks. Owned by Middleham Park, the Dandy Man filly made her debut at Carlisle before finishing down the field at 100/1 in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Beaten eight lengths by Raffle Prize, she was sent off even money for a Musselburgh novice on July 3 in which she led all the way before being reeled in by previous course winner Bill Neigh right on the line. She looks speedy, though, and an opening mark of 79 suggests she could well be placed to advantage – although she is entered in a Beverley novice on Monday. Whether she runs there or not, she’s on the radar for nurseries sometime soon.
BUSHTUCKER TRIAL (Michael Bell)
Michael Bell’s juveniles are in good form and his nursery horses in July have proven to be profitable over the years (13/56 23.21 per cent, +£17). It’ll be interesting to see if BUSHTUCKER TRIAL is out soon as this Bungle Inthejungle gelding could well be fairly treated off 75. He impressed when winning at Leicester, despite shooting right out of the stalls and hanging right throughout, and he can be forgiven his Catterick defeat under a penalty from a wide draw. A more suitable track in nursery company could well see him in a much better light and his entries are worth tracking over the next few weeks.
SHE CAN DANCE (Kevin Ryan)
Kevin Ryan is a dab hand with his two-year-olds so it’s no surprise that he’s got a good career-record with this type of horse in July and in August as well when the competition hots up. SHE CAN DANCE, owned by Clipper Logistics, looks just the type to excel in nurseries and, given her record and her handler, a York nursery could well be on the horizon. She’s already racked up two York runs from three starts, improving for better ground last time when third behind owner-mate Spartan Fighter. She was never far away and was only beaten a length-and-a-quarter by a smart two-year-old, so she could well dance to victory off an opening mark of 77 when she dips her toe into handicap company for the first time.
Selected Trainers: Career Nursery Records (July/August)
- Archie Watson Nursery runners in July
- 4 wins/7 runners 57% win strike-rate Percentage Rivals Beaten 72.22% (+£17.50 £1 to Starting Price)
- In August
- 5/14 35.71% PRB 69.89%
- Saeed bin Suroor Nursery runners in July
- 5/9 55.56% PRB 79.83% (+£7.13 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 2/13 15.38% PRB 54.41%
- Charlie Appleby Nursery runners in July
- 4/10 40% PRB 76.8% (+£5.67 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 13/34 38.24% PRB 66.17%
- Roger Charlton Nursery runners in July
- 4/10 40% PRB 85.56% (+£1.38 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 4/29 13.79% PRB 43.05%
- Keith Dalgleish Nursery runners in July
- 6/18 33.33% PRB 54.86% (+£19 £1 To SP)
- In August
- 7/57 12.28% PRB 52.86%
- Michael Bell Nursery runners in July
- 13/56 23.21% PRB 58.97% (+£17 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 20/124 16.13% PRB 54.38%
- Mark Johnston Nursery runners in July
- 36/178 20.22% PRB 55.67% (-£32.87 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 46/314 14.65% PRB 52.66%
- Richard Hannon Nursery runners in July
- 14/70 20% PRB 52.97% (+14.02 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 21/150 14% PRB 51.3%
- Rod Millman Nursery runners in July
- 10/51 19.61% PRB 50.52% (+£35.75 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 8/103 7.77% PRB 49.33%
- Kevin Ryan Nursery runners in July
- 17/88 19.32% PRB 55.44% (+£5.22 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 25/168 14.88% PRB 53.26%
- Ralph Beckett Nursery runners in July
- 9/47 19.15% PRB 54.68% (+12.25 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 10/84 11.90% PRB 56.19%
- Ed Dunlop Nursery runners in July
- 4/21 19.05% PRB 63.42% (-£7.20 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 9/81 11.11% PRB 60.42%
- Richard Fahey Nursery runners in July
- 22/157 14.01% PRB 54.72% (-£23.40 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 41/304 13.49% PRB 52.87%
- David O’Meara Nursery runners in July
- 4/31 12.9% PRB 44.69% (-£13.63 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 8/49 16.33% PRB 49.52%
- Charles Hills Nursery runners in July
- 2/16 12.5% PRB 53.76% (-£11.38 £1 to SP)
- In August
- 8/46 17.39% PRB 56.02%
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