Nic Doggett looks at the record of Aidan O'Brien ahead of Derby favourite Pierre Bonnard's return in Sunday's Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown.
Sunday’s Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown has been something of a mixed bag for Aidan O’Brien this century, which seems a bit of an odd thing to write about a trainer who has saddled the winner on ten occasions. Four of those were odds-on favourites, but it’s worth pointing out that he has had another 14 short-priced favourites turned over in that time.
So which fate lies ahead for this year’s jolly – and current Epsom Derby favourite – Pierre Bonnard?
The tall, imposing Camelot colt made just a modest start when fourth at Leopardstown last July, but, as it turned out, that was a very strong maiden. The winner Hardy Warrior, who had the benefit of a run under his belt, went on to be second in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes back at Leopardstown later in the season before a fine fourth in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud.
The runner-up South Island – who reopposes on Sunday - broke his maiden tag a couple of starts later, while the third was the odds-on Ballydoyle runner Montreal, who won by eight lengths on his next start and is currently a 16/1 shot for the Derby despite not being seen since (missed the Champions Juvenile on vets advice).
Pierre Bonnard duly won a Dundalk maiden with the minimum of fuss, and then backed that up after a two-month break when a well-backed winning favourite of the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket, beating Endorsement by a length and a half. A third win in a row followed – this time at the highest level – with Pierre Bonnard having to work harder but ultimately well on top in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October (Shosholoza fifth, Endorsement beaten much further this time, in eighth).
The 2016 winner Waldgeist is the pick of Criterium de Saint-Cloud winners in recent times, but a quirky stat is that between 2016 and 2022 none of the winners of that race won the following season. That wasn’t the case in 2024 however, as the previous autumn’s winner Los Angeles – trained by O’Brien - won three times (including the Irish Derby) as well as finishing third at Epsom. That season’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Tennessee Stud was also third in the Derby the following spring.
It’s too early to really comment on the form of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, as only the 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th have run, with all well beaten bar the latter – A Taste Of Glory – who won a Class 4 Lingfield handicap from a mark of 80.
Stable form may provide some more pertinent clues. Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners from 15 runners so far in April, though the likes of Confucius (beaten a nose having fluffed the start) suggest that the yard is not under a cloud despite operating at its lowest April strike-rate since 2009. Clearly, there’s still time for that to change this month.
On lateral form lines, Pierre Bonnard should have the measure of Christmas Day, both on a form line through Endorsement (who he was a long way behind at Tipperary) and A Boy Named Susie. That runner pushed Christmas Day to a short-head in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes here in October but could only get within two lengths of Pierre Bonnard at Saint-Cloud.
But things aren't always that linear, as we know. It’s notable that A Boy Named Susie is one of only four in this field who won first-time out last season. The others are his Joseph O’Brien-trained stablemate Shosholoza, the Henry de Bromhead-trained Victory Tip, and apparent fourth-string for Aidan, Italy.
One of the horses who first took my eye when looking at the race, Italy is the only one who raced exclusively over seven furlongs last season. A series of top-three efforts, in the Superlative, Acomb and National Stakes, resulted in him being sent off at just 12/1 for the Dewhurst back at HQ in October, but all of that is slightly at odds with his pedigree.
This ‘lovely big horse’ is a half-brother to a host of winners over 1m-1¼m, and his dam won over 1¼m and is a sister to the Derby winner Serpentine. His sire Wootton Bassett’s biggest success stories, meanwhile, have been the Champion Stakes winners Almanzor and King Of Steel.
The application of a hood should hopefully help him settle (pulled hard last season) and manage the starts better, and he looks a major player here over what could be his optimum trip with plenty of physical scope for improvement as a three-year-old.
Clearly, the Ballysax is an important race for Ballydoyle, but its certainly not the be-all-and-end-all for potential Classic horses that have long seasons ahead of them. Indeed, only recently did Joseph outline the importance of winning international races in revenue terms for his own yard.
Last year’s odds-on winner Delacroix was sent off favourite for the Derby after being allowed to dictate his own terms when beating Lambourn in this last year but was a long way behind his winning stablemate at Epsom. Pierre Bonnard is clearly the yard’s likeliest Derby winner in Sunday’s race, but, given the yard's mixed record in the Ballysax with its favourites, I’m not sure I’d be backing him to win first time out. I might back him for the Derby though, especially if he loses...
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