There was plenty of good racing last week at Newmarket where Royal Ascot form was put to the test and with such a lot to get through, we’ll crack straight on and go through the action day by day.
Thursday’s card got off to a low-key start when the twice-raced Frankella left her previous form well behind to land the opener in a modest 75 timefigure, but the quality soon picked up as one would expect with three Group races on the card.
Why is Baaeed so exciting?
Arguably, however, the performance of the day came not in one of the Pattern events but in the Listed race named in honour of Sir Henry Cecil where Baaeed confirmed himself a top-notch prospect.
That is not immediately obvious from his overall timefigure, which was a decent enough if still slightly ordinary 103, but the proliferation of sectional information readily available these days allows for the context of that timefigure to be interrogated, and that examination paints Baaeed in a very good light.
According to the data on the Racing TV website, Baaeed ran the easily the fastest last three furlongs on the day and, despite already having the race in the bag, only just lost out in the fastest-last-furlong contest to a couple of juveniles in the July Stakes.
At the line, he had four lengths to spare over Maximal, who had finished only slightly further behind Poetic Flare in the St James’s Palace Stakes, and over five lengths to spare over One Ruler, who had finished closer to Jim Bolger's colt than that in the 2000 Guineas.
Taking collateral form lines at face value can often be misleading where very-lightly raced horses are involved, but I doubt it is overstating things to say that Baaeed is a bona-fide Group One animal who, along with Poetic Flare and St Mark’s Basilica, is one of the top three three-year-old colts over a mile in Europe right now.
He is not entered in the Sussex Stakes, sadly, but hopefully he will prove the point in the Celebration Mile later in the summer.
July Stakes review - how good are the protagonists?
The July Stakes looked an intriguing affair as it brought together horses who had been placed in the Norfolk, Windsor Castle and Coventry, but the finish ended up being fought out by three horses who hadn’t run at Royal Ascot with Lusail coping well with the drop back to six furlongs to narrowly edge out the unbeaten Asymmetric in an up-to-standard timefigure of 107.
The more-experienced winner was probably helped in part by the Ascot-placed pair Project Dante and Dig Two going off too hard but Asymmetric, who ran the last three furlongs getting on for four lengths faster than the winner and the last furlong two lengths faster, might be able to turn the tables another day, while The Organiser, who ran the fastest last furlong all day after finding his run through blocked, shaped much better than the bare result.
Yibir, who had been gelded since last seen, looked much more like the horse that chased home Alenquer and Adayar in the Sandown Classic Trial in winning a very steadily-run Bahrain Trophy in a timefigure of 62.
Very much the best horse on the day, he would probably have won anyway even if the big market-drifter Stowell had run his race, but whether Sir Ron Priestley (107) was the best horse in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes is a moot point given Al Aasy outsped him in the last three furlongs in a tactical affair but couldn’t quite get past.
Falmouth Stakes thoughts
There was some superb racing on Friday with the highlight being the Falmouth Stakes where the 13 that went to post in the best renewal for years included the first five home in the Duke of Cambridge at Ascot and four of the first five in the Coronation.
In the event, the younger generation filled six of the first seven places with Snow Lantern, who had run two of the last three furlongs in the Coronation faster than Alcohol Free, able to turn the tables in this more strongly-run affair (timefigure 112 compared to 95 at Ascot), the pair split by the 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth.
For Lady Bowthorpe and, to a lesser extent, Primo Bacio it was a case of ‘what might have been’, however.
Both had either trouble-in-running or momentum issues as the race developed in earnest yet still ran the three furlongs faster than Snow Lantern.
Handicap pair both Group performers
The first of the two Heritage Handicaps saw Group class performances from Dubai Honour and Foxes Tales. We already knew the latter was better than a handicapper after his win in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot where he ran six of the last seven furlongs faster than any of his rivals, but he couldn’t quite hold off Dubai Honour who had finished first of the far side runners in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Dubai Honour’s 95 timefigure comes with a 12lb upgrade, giving him a combined time rating of 107, marginally higher than the 105 form rating Timeform have awarded him. I’d be surprised if he, like Foxes Tales, doesn’t end up rated much better than he is currently.
Back in fourth Highland Rocker is one to keep an eye on. He went into my sectional notebook at Ripon earlier in the year before running no sort of race (on soft ground) at Newbury next time. Kept to a mile-and-a-quarter despite his Ripon win coming at a mile-and-a-half, Highland Rocker finished his race very strongly (wasn’t far off running the quickest final furlong all day) and will be well suited by a return to further.
Two-year-olds to follow
The Ascot two-year-old form, at least among the colts, didn’t look any better on Friday when the Chesham fourth Sweeping couldn’t even finish in the frame in the opening maiden. The winner Noble Truth (91 timefigure) is another promising type off the never-ending Godolphin production line, but runner-up Ehraz, the only one among the first six making his debut, shaped best of all, unable to sustain his run in the last furlong having run the preceding two furlongs easily the fastest of any horse in the race.
Albany winner Sandrine (103) confirmed form with Ascot runner-up Hello You in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes and was unquestionably the best on the day even if the runner-up Desert Dreamer (who’d flopped in the Queen Mary) ran the final furlong faster.
The Darley July Cup was the highlight of Saturday’s card and though Oxted couldn’t repeat his 2020 win, his 118 timefigure in finishing third behind Starman (122) was the same as he achieved in the King’s Stand at Ascot.
Along with Jersey winner Creative Force and Commonwealth Cup second Dragon Symbol, Oxted ran the preceding quarter mile quicker than Starman but the final furlong was where Starman was dominant and he’s entitled to be considered the leading six-furlong performer around on this evidence.
Newmarket runners to note
One horse who did repeat his July Festival win of 2020 was Motakhayyal, who not only landed the Bunbury Cup off an official handicap mark of 109, 4lb higher than in 2020, but did it by three-and-a-half lengths as well in what was, on the face of it, one of the best performances in a handicap for many a year.
For all that, his winning timefigure was a relatively modest 104, so in a race where both fourth-placed Shine So Bright and fifth-placed Kimifive ran the combined penultimate and third-last furlongs a fair bit faster but were too far back to challenge, whether he has improved as much as it seems remains to be seen.
Native Trail, who I flagged up last week as an interesting runner in the Superlative Stakes, got the job done very narrowly from Masekela. That said, the time taken by the first two to run the last three furlongs was only a length or so slower than Starman managed in the July Cup, so this looks form (Coventry sixth Dhabab comfortably held back in third) could well be above average for the race.
Two others to note on the day were Kingmania, fourth in the seven-furlong fillies handicap, and Bouquet who was third in the opening two-year-old maiden. Their closing times suggest that they really should have won their respective races and are worth keeping onside, while one who didn’t run at the fixture but emerges with his reputation enhanced is Find who not only split Lusail and Noble Truth at Newmarket last time - but ran the final three furlongs much faster.
