Ayr Scottish Grand National meeting preview and tips

THE BIG-RACE BET

CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES (15.35 Ayr)

The Royal Bank of Scotland has been issuing pound notes since the early 1700s. If I had one for every time I’ve been told the Scottish National is a race for novices, I wouldn’t need to spend half-an-hour thinking up a tenuous intro for a paid preview I’m obliged to write just to make sure I’ve got enough lolly to cover next month’s diesel bill.

Yet the stats back up one of the sport’s most tossed-around maxims. Four of the last seven have been won by first-season chasers. Or five of the last nine if you prefer. It’s completely logical too. With 51 weeks of the season gone, said horses have amassed sufficient chasing experience throughout the course of the campaign, yet, crucially, remain open to further improvement to defy whatever the handicapper has thrown at them along the way.

Which is why I’ve eventually come down on the side of CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES for this year’s race. After a slightly underwhelming start to his switch to the larger obstacles, the only horse to beat him in four starts since the autumn is Newton Tornado. It came in a six-runner race at Doncaster where he had no fewer than three next-time-out winners in behind.

The fitting of cheekpieces in two starts since then have prompted another jolt of improvement from Chasingouttheblues, most recently when surging up the Carlisle hill to win one of the Go North Series finals just under four weeks ago. More will be required stepping up in class here, but this is far from the deepest Scottish National I’ve seen and a 4lb rise for that latest success in a competitive race in its own right doesn’t strike me as OTT.

What’s really caught my eye is that Chasingouttheblues has been doing it over a trip that barely scratches the surface of his apparent abundant stamina. The way he flew home to win at Wetherby’s Christmas meeting after being badly hampered four out had to be seen to be believed. And the manner in which he toughed it out at Catterick and Carlisle to run down rivals that had seemingly got away from him strongly suggests he’ll only improve again for stepping out beyond three miles for the first time now.

Providing he’s able to hold his position through the early hurly burly, a big run looks on the cards. He’s already a course winner over hurdles on soft ground and hails from an in-form stable, that of Mark Walford, that had three winners on the Flat at Ripon on Thursday.

Midlands National winner Isaac Des Obeaux will relish the demands of a soft-ground Scottish Nash and is a worthy second string at a double-digit price.

King Of Answers ran an eye-catching trial for this when runner-up to Holloway Queen in the National Hunt Chase, especially as he was caught flat-footed by the standing start and couldn’t adopt his usual forward-going run style. Derek Fox will need to be on his mettle to make sure he obtains - and retains - a prominent pitch this time.

The Inside Track: “The cheekpieces have definitely helped Chasingouttheblues. The Go North Series final was his main aim, but we think there’s still more improvement to come from him now stepping up in trip. The way he finishes his races is one of his real assets. If we’re still on their tails turning in, I’d be very hopeful. My one worry is being able to hold my position through the first half of the race because they always go quick.” - Jamie Hamilton, jockey

BEST OF THE REST

CAPTAIN HUGO (14.20 Ayr)

There’s no Cracking Rhapsody to defend his crown but CAPTAIN HUGO can emulate Ewan Whillans’ sidelined stable star by completing the Morebattle-Scottish Champion Hurdle double.

The Philip Hobbs-Johnson White runner landed that Kelso contest on his handicap debut with a bit more up his sleeve than I initially recalled. So smoothly did he move through the race that jockey Sean Houlihan was able to position his mount wherever he wanted.

Not that it was all plain sailing, as he momentarily had to wait for a clear passage off the home bend and handed first run to Serious Challenge, the eventual runner-up, through no fault of his own.

Yet Captain Hugo showed a willing attitude for a horse light on experience to bridge the deficit and go on, before then looking to do little once in front. It’s that latter point which convinces me he is more than capable of handling a 6lb rise here.

There’s a lopsided look to this £100,000 handicap thanks to the participation of Tutti Quanti. Paul Nicholls’ wide-margin William Hill Hurdle winner, who was well beaten in the Champion Hurdle last time, has to concede 16lb to Captain Hugo and between 18lb and 20lb to the rest of his rivals, five of whom are running from varying degrees out of the handicap.

One who’s not is Tellherthename, who went into a stack of trackers (and maybe even a few old-fashioned notebooks) on the back of a luckless effort in the County Hurdle. He’s long held a lofty reputation and perhaps Dan Skelton is the man to help him finally deliver on it, especially with a hood being applied for the first time. At odds of 9/4 at the time of writing, however, the bookmakers aren’t exactly handing out gifts.

I strongly suspect All In You - a fluent winner at Sandown before getting bogged down in the Newbury mud behind Tutti Quanti - is a fair bit better than his current mark. He’ll need to be running from 5lb out of the handicap, but is a potential fly in the ointment.

The Inside Track: “Captain Hugo had an entry at Aintree but I’m delighted we’ve waited for Ayr as I thought the race might cut up a bit, which it has. Kelso was the most competitive race he’s been in but he handled it well. I think it was just greenness more than anything when he hit the front. He’s always shown us plenty of speed, he’s got a great attitude and he’s come a long way in a short space of time.” - Johnson White, joint trainer

TWISTTHENIGHTAWAY (14.55 Ayr)

The likeable World Of Fortunes took advantage of a good opportunity to land a Listed race at Kelso a month ago, but may find the concession of 18lb (even after her amateur rider’s 7lb claim has been factored in) to TWISTTHENIGHTAWAY too big an ask.

Dan Skelton’s mare has proved a different proposition since switching to handicaps, winning both starts in this discipline at Newcastle (2m4f+ on heavy) and then Bangor (2m7f on soft). Neither of those races turned out to be proper tests of stamina at the trip, which is exactly what this mare from the family of Stayers’ Hurdle winner Shuil Ar Aghaidh appears to be crying out for. She should get that here, going up another furlong and a half and with a sound pace expected courtesy of Fox’s Fancy and the first-time-blinkered Holly Hartingo.

The Skeltons know this meeting inside out and I’d imagine they’ve had this race - which they won in 2022 with another low-mileage six-year-old - in mind for this sturdy mare, who looks well up to defying a 6lb rise.

The Inside Track: “Twistthenightaway has appreciated stepping up in trip. She was up to three miles last time out, which was good, and I don’t see why she can’t run a massive race again. The handicapper has had a bit of a say but I think she can be better than her mark.” - Dan Skelton, trainer & Ladbrokes ambassador

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