Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson is our man on the ground this week at Ayr, where he fancies Dan Skelton and Olly Murphy to enhance their already healthy strike-rates at the track.
THE BIG-RACE BET
HOE JOLY SMOKE (15.30 Ayr)
Dan Skelton’s stranglehold on the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase can continue with HOE JOLY SMOKE. The champion trainer elect has won five of the last nine runnings of this £50,000 event. Even more impressive is his record with his finishers in the race. Heltenham (fell) and Jet Place (pulled up) both failed to complete two years ago, but strip those from data and you’re left with eye-popping figures of 1121311.
That’s more than enough to make Hoe Joly Smoke of interest, for all that his finishing efforts over further can be more powder-puff rather than power-packed. There are reasons to believe that might not be the case here. One is a second bout of wind surgery. Another is the prospect of a well-run race (Timeform’s prediction is for a Strong pace scenario) courtesy of Donnacha, Jipcot and the down-in-trip Myretown, which could tow Hoe Joly Smoke deep into the race and allow Harry to play his hand as late as possible.
On the formbook, there’s nothing to knock about his Cheltenham thirds to Three Card Brag (over 3m1f) and then stable-mate Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m4f) before Christmas. Things haven’t quite gone his way in two runs since, behind Glengouly in the December Gold Cup (2m4f) and then Lookaway in a valuable handicap at Kempton (3m) when returning from a 10-week lay-off.
That subsequent visit to the vets looks to have been timed specifically with a view to this race which we know his trainer targets, while the fact Skelton is happy to rely solely on Hoe Joly Smoke - having not declared his other entries Riskintheground (won at Haydock on Wednesday) or Heltenham - can also be deemed a positive for his chances.
THE WIN BET
CASTLE IVERS (13.45 Ayr)
It’s been pretty wet on Scotland’s west coast of late and a competitive 15-runner handicap hurdle that kicks off proceedings will tell us plenty about just how testing, or otherwise, conditions are likely to prove for the 13 races that follow.
Amid all the imponderables, I’d be pretty confident an opening mark of 120 underestimates what a fit and ready CASTLE IVERS is capable of. What I’m far less sure of is how fit and ready he will be for his first start since making a winning hurdles debut at Warwick two Novembers ago.
As a pint-glass-half-full kinda guy, I’m always inclined to see the positive in such scenarios. It’s understandable that a trainer would try to have horses that have displayed a certain fragility or a returning from a lengthy lay-off as fit as possible for their comeback run. With such types, there are also no guarantees as to how many bounces of the ball you might get.
All of which makes me think a canny man like Olly Murphy will have Castle Ivers sufficiently tuned up 512 days on from that Warwick win.
There was loads to like about the way he did it there, not needing to be fully extended by Sean Bowen to pick up the leader, who himself had quickened away from the final hurdle, the pair scampering clear of the third on the short run-in. Castle Ivers had displayed a similar sharp turn of foot in winning bumpers at Southwell and Wetherby on easy ground the previous season. With that in his locker, a win-only bet looks the way to go on a horse who comes out marginally best on Timeform Ratings.
Dual Kelso novice winner Triple Crown Ted has improved for being ridden with more restraint of late and remains with potential. He’ll have no issues with slow ground, although jockey Derek Fox will have to be on his mettle to pull off those tactics in a race of this nature. He’s worth saving on win only at a double-figure price nonetheless.
The Inside Track: “Castle Ivers is in good form and has been training well at home. He lacks experience for a race like this but a nice bit of slow ground will suit.” - Olly Murphy, trainer
THE EACH-WAY BET
THE FOUR SIXES (16.05 Ayr)
Murphy and Bowen have made hay on their regular Ayr raids this season and the duo could be in for another productive day. Woodland Park (4.43) is likely to draw in his share of supporters again, but he’s been a beaten favourite on five of his last six starts and that’s enough to set alarm bells ringing in my head.
Instead a chance is taken on THE FOUR SIXES bouncing back to the form that saw him land this race 12 months ago off a 5lb higher mark. There’s good reason why he’s dropped to such an appealing perch now, the handicapper easing him 8lb for three heavy defeats since reverting to hurdles following a laboured display over fences in mid-February.
The last two of those, at Kempton and Bangor, came under a marked shift in tactics, being restrained in rear in stark contrast to the positive, often attacking, approach that has generally been deployed throughout his career.
That was very much the case when he built up a big lead under Bowen in this race last year and drawing clear again after the last, and when runner-up to Punta Del Este 12 months before that.
With confirmed forward-goers Phantomofthepoints, Knowmorediamonds and A Perfect Day in opposition, I’ve no idea whether connections will revert to the tactics that have served The Four Sixes so well. However, opening prices of 28s and 25s look far too big to ignore, given a third crack at this race is likely to have been The Four Sixes’ target for some time.
The Inside Track: “The Four Sixes likes this race. He’s back down below his last winning mark and I’ve been happy with his work since his last run.” - Olly Murphy, trainer
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