Analysis and tips for Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham and more

Give us one horse you’re looking forward to seeing at Cheltenham on Trials Day with the Festival in mind?

Matt Brocklebank: The devil in me will be monitoring potential County Hurdle project Joyeux Machin closely in the Unibet Hurdle, but in terms of a horse who could win or go close this Saturday and then double up at the Festival, you’ve got to give Resplendent Grey a fair chance in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase. His jumping came under pressure at Sandown and let him down a bit last time, but I like how he’s been campaigned so far and has the Cheltenham chase course experience already under his belt. He’ll need the forecast rain but looks quite well handicapped off 143 and a strong pace and big field at the Festival itself could unlock even more improvement.

Ben Linfoot: I’ve been watching Masaccio’s novice chasing campaign with interest and he is on the radar for the new Grade 2 novices’ handicap chase at the Festival. I just think a good solid gallop at an intermediate distance might suit him well at this stage of his career rather than going three miles. We don’t know if Cheltenham will suit him, he’s never been there, but he runs in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Saturday and I’ll be watching him closely whether I’ve backed him or not.

Billy Nash: I'm really looking forward to seeing East India Dock again. He was hugely impressive here in November and, at this stage, is the standard bearer in this juvenile division. This is a much deeper heat, however, with seven previous winners over hurdles in opposition so we will find out a good deal more about him. Obviously, the likes of Lulamba and Hello Neighbour have emerged onto the scene since he was last seen but if East India Dock can maintain his unbeaten record here then he will go the Triumph as the one to beat.

Are there any chinks in the L’Homme Presse, Constitution Hill, Potters Charm Trials Day treble?

MB: I tend not to consider such bets these days in truth as if they’re not representing any value as individual singles then they’re probably even worse value in a treble, seeing as so much can go wrong to let the bet down. On the face of it, it’s difficult to find many faults with the first two but could Potters Charm be vulnerable giving weight away in the Grade 2 novice? Quebecois was outpaced by Bill Joyce at Sandown last time but might be ridden even more aggressively around here and he’s got a 5lb swing for a five-length defeat so I couldn’t rule out the Nicholls horse putting in a bold bid to reverse that form. Whether he’ll beat Potters Charm is hard to say, though.

BL: Well it pays around 3.46/1 with Constitution Hill in it and 3.05/1 without him so that’s your gain if you wanted to cheer him home in a multiple! Of course, you would think he only has to stand up to win, while L’Homme Presse has a fine opportunity in the Betfair Cotswold Chase getting weight from the likes of Gentlemansgame and Stage Star in a race that really does look all set up for him. The forecast rain looks in his favour and that shouldn’t inconvenience Potters Charm either, who has 6lb in hand on Timeform ratings. You never know who might take a leap forward in the novice hurdling division, so he looks the dodgiest leg to me, but you couldn’t really put anyone off this treble.

BN: Constitution Hill surely only has to turn up and a reproduction of his King George form should be good enough to see L'Homme Presse home in front. I do expect Gentlemansgame to run well in that race, as I thought there was a lot to like about his performance in the Savills last time. However, the fact that he has to give weight to everything does temper enthusiasm. My one concern with Potters Charm is that this appears to be something of an afterthought - the Twiston-Davies camp said he was going to go straight to the Festival after he won at Aintree. The return to this trip will suit but he does have to give weight to some unexposed sorts, the pick of whom may well be the progressive Gamesters Guy.

The Cleeve Hurdle has been a fantastic trial for both the Stayers’ Hurdle and handicap chases at the Festival – which horse should we keep an eye on this year?

MB: I suppose Transmission is the obvious one having a bit of a prep as connections have already suggested the National Hunt Chase – now a handicap of course – is his long-term goal. I don’t think the Stayers’ Hurdle winner is running in the Cleeve, to be perfectly honest, but Crambo is a very likeable sort who wasn’t at his best at the major spring meetings last year so could yet have a bit more improvement to come as a lightly-raced eight-year-old. Kerryhill is the other one in the race I'm convinced has enough talent to win a nice race at some point.

BL: With this rain forecast Strong Leader might well see conditions go against him so I would say Crambo becomes the key horse in the Cleeve. He will not mind a grind in more testing ground and after he flopped when fresh in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle you can see why Fergal O’Brien has switched things up this campaign by running him here. It could well do him good before his Festival challenge against the reigning champion Teahupoo and this is a chance for him to prove he can do what he does at Ascot at Cheltenham. Both Ga Law and Transmission look your handicap chasers to monitor.

BN: Crambo failed to do himself justice in the Stayers' Hurdle last year, so I'm fascinated to see how he gets on back at this track and Strong Leader has a bit to prove after the Long Walk. Strong Leader has had a breathing operation since but I'm just not sure that Cheltenham is his track. I don't know what the long-term plan is, but I am very interested to see how Monmiral gets on. It seems likely that he will attempt to defend his crown in the Pertemps, but I do think he has some unfinished business over fences (yet to be tried in headgear over the larger obstacles) so I'll be keeping a close eye on the entries for the handicap chases at the Festival to see if his name appears.

Is there anything on the radar ahead of the good card at Doncaster on Saturday?

MB: At a massive 66/1 in places, Frisby looks worth a mention pitched into the River Don Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over jumps. His trainer Pat Neville hasn’t had a runner yet this month but he was 4-11 in December and this horse didn’t shape badly at all on hurdling debut when third in a Catterick maiden late last month. He’d previously won a three-mile point on heavy ground, before finishing second to the promising Derryhassen Paddy (recent Windsor winner) in a bumper at Ayr last February. A son of Flemensfirth, stamina is likely to prove Frisby’s forte going forward and he could be sitting on heaps of potential now stepped up in trip.

BL: Yes, Jig’s Forge for Ben Pauling in the Grade 2 Pertemps Network River Don Novices’ Hurdle over three miles. Plenty of rain is forecast at Doncaster, too, so this could be a real slog, but this son of Westerner is a heavy ground point-to-point winner who won in Ffos Las soft on his debut under Rules over 2m4f in November. That form has worked out really well with the second and fourth subsequently winning and Pauling often targets this race winning it three times in the last 10 years.

BN: I think Jetara is very interesting in the Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle. She rattled up a hat-trick last season prior to finishing placed in Graded novice events at the Dublin, Fairyhouse and Punchestown Festivals. She looked as good as ever at Limerick on reappearance but has been a bit disappointing on her last two starts. I usually don't like first-time headgear on one stepping up in trip but I'm not convinced that Kateira or Della Casa Lunga, the two main dangers on form, are out-and-out stayers either so she may just get away with it.

Does anything else catch your eye in England or Ireland this weekend?

MB: Sticking with Doncaster, it’s quite interesting to see Weveallbeencaught back with original trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies in the 12.55. He’s flattered to deceive for most of his career but still doesn’t have many miles on the clock and has been given another chance by the handicapper, now back on the same mark (128) as when almost winning at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Maybe another change of scenery, after a brief spell with Christian Williams, will perk him up again.

BL: I was disappointed with Not Sure’s run at Windsor on Sunday but I remain convinced Kerry Lee is set for a fruitful period over the next six weeks or so. She has got quite a few running at Uttoxeter on Saturday and I like the look of New Found Fame in the 2m4f handicap hurdle at 2.32. He won his novice over the course and distance in soft ground and he got back on track with a Bangor win in first-time cheekpieces last time. I think there’s still mileage in his new mark and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went again here.

BN: Assuming Storm Eowyn doesn't do too much damage, there should be some very interesting action in Ireland this weekend. Anzadam is likely to be the headline act at Naas on Sunday but the race I'm most looking forward to is the Naas Novice Chase. Dancing City beat Better Days Ahead when they met over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival back in May and both have made an encouraging start over fences. Of the two, I'd prefer Dancing City again at this trip but the likes of Dee Capo, Good Land and the mare Bioluminescence will ensure that he doesn't get things all his own way.

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