Ben Linfoot, Tony McFadden and David Ord answer the key questions following the release of the six-day entries for day two at Aintree next Friday.
How do you view the Heart Wood v Jonbon rematch in the Melling and who else could get involved?
Ben Linfoot: Jonbon has made this race his own after winning it the last two years and this intermediate trip looks his optimum distance these days. The two-years younger Heart Wood outclassed him in the Ryanair Chase, though, and if he turns up in Liverpool in the same sort of form it will take a very good performance to beat him. Indeed, Jonbon isn’t likely to be his toughest rival, with L’Eau Du Sud an interesting one up to 2m4f, while Impaire Et Passe and Gidleigh Park finished one-two in last year’s Mildmay so they look well suited to this test.
Tony McFadden: Jonbon still hasn't finished outside the first two in his lengthy career and has bagged a couple of Grade 1s this season in the Clarence House Chase and Ascot Chase. However, despite that success, I don't think he's quite looked the force of old and is likely to be increasingly vulnerable in Grade 1 company. Heart Wood should prove difficult to beat on the back of such a dominant success in the Ryanair but is likely to be priced accordingly given the paucity of high-class opposition.
David Ord: You watch the Ryanair replay again and think you have to be with the winner but then Cheltenham really isn’t Jonbon’s bag is it and he’s won here for four successive years. I’ll go for the old legs to have another day in the sun but would be very fearful of Grey Dawning if he rocks up. He ran well in the Gold Cup and looks well worth a try at this intermediate trip, Dan Skelton having already indicated that the Ryanair will be his March target next year.
Can Paul Nicholls do another ‘Caldwell Potter’ with Regent’s Stroll in the Mildmay?
Ben Linfoot: He could do. They have very similar profiles and now he’s relaxing early on his races Regent’s Stroll could well improve at three miles. However, there’s a suspicion he isn’t quite as good as his stablemate, after all, he got beat in the Jack Richards and quite a few of these come in here fresh after missing Cheltenham. Dan Skelton’s Doyen Quest looks a very interesting horse with that in mind as he travelled and jumped like an Aintree horse at Windsor and he comes in here fresh after 82 days off.
Tony McFadden: He'd obviously need to improve a bit having finished only third in the Jack Richards at Cheltenham, but he stuck to his task well enough there to suggest that he should benefit from a step up to three miles, while his pedigree also offers hope on that score as he's from the family of Denman. He's also shown himself to be an accurate jumper and that could prove to be a big asset around a course that presents a stern examination of jumping. The horses who contested the Brown Advisory - Salver and Wendigo - look like thorough stayers, so perhaps Regent's Stroll could have a bit too much class for them on decent ground.
David Ord: He’s from the family of Denman so well worth a try at three miles, particularly as his freegoing nature looks to have been brought under more control. But he didn’t win at Cheltenham, running creditably, in defeat, but even so it wasn’t a performance that screamed Grade One winner next time. That said this race doesn’t scream Grade One either with Kitzbuhel and Final Demand both staying at home in County Carlow. Even so I’d prefer the copper-bottomed stamina of Wendigo and Salver to the Nicholls runner.
Talking of Nicholls, can No Drama This End bounce back up in trip in the Sefton?
Ben Linfoot: He’s another one that could improve going out in trip to three miles and it’s easy to forgive his Cheltenham effort after finding himself on the backfoot early on in the Turners. This will likely be competitive, however, and his reputation means he won’t be a big price, so he’s probably one to take on again especially given his future lies over fences. Lucinda Russell usually has one up her sleeve for this and Stride On is interesting after hosing up at Ayr last time while Albert Bartlett winner Johnny’s Jury is the form horse after Cheltenham, so it will be fascinating to see how he fares on this very different track.
Tony McFadden: He was soon up against in the Turners, where he was caught much further back than ideal, but it was still a bit disappointing how he never even threatened to make any sort of headway. I'd still be positive about his chances of success in good-quality novice chases on soft ground next season, but I'd be a bit wary about him at Aintree in what is likely to be another big field on decent ground, even if the step up in trip should help.
David Ord: It just didn’t happen for him at Cheltenham did it and you must put a line through the run. He’ll bounce back and run well at Aintree, the trip won’t be an issue either but Albert Bartlett winner Johnny’s Jury is in here, Dalston Lad and Hold The Serve are going the right way for top stables and Zeus Power is a horse I have a lot of time for. He’s quicker than a lot of these, fared best of those held up when third in the Turners at Cheltenham and would be a fascinating runner at a track which will play to his strengths.
What else takes your eye from the Friday six-day entries on day two at Aintree?
Ben Linfoot: Favour And Fortune is a spring horse for Alan King and he’s had a lighter campaign than last year when he was third in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle. Back for more off just a 1lb higher mark with just one run this season under his belt, he’ll have to come into calculations for Friday’s opener.
Tony McFadden: Joyeuse ran well when third in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival so looks of interest in the opening two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle (13:45). She's largely been campaigned at around two miles but does have a notable effort to her name at around this trip when splitting Wodhooh and Take No Chances in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last season. Admittedly, she was in receipt of weight that day and it was a slowly-run race, but that effort still bodes well for her prospects back up at two and a half miles.
David Ord: I know this hardly requires a crystal ball but absolutely everything about Madara screams the Topham. He did what the market suggested he would at Cheltenham, a ten pounds rise looks perfectly manageable and his jumping technique and running style look tailormade for the race. He’s favourite but there will be far worse 6/1 shots in action in Liverpool next week.
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