UFC Fight Night: Free betting preview and tips for main card and prelims

Recommended bets

1pt Bryce Mitchell to beat Andre Fili by submission at 12/5

2pts Alexander Hernandez to beat Chris Gruetzemacher by decision at 6/5

1pt Sean Strickland to beat Jack Marshman by submission at 4/1

Mitchell fits the bill

By Kieran Cobley

UFC Vegas 12 is upon us, and this is a card which is pretty weak, bar the main events and a few prelim bouts.

It is headlined by Anderson Silva, who will take to the Octagon for his 46th, and final, MMA fight. The Spider ends a legendary career, one which has seen him finish 26 out of 34 wins, against Uriah Hall (15-9), who was ironically called the 'next Anderson Silva' before his own career hit a stall.

I’m not getting involved here though. Silva has done little to give me confidence in backing him over his last few fights, and Hall is a fighter where you never know what you're going to get.

You might get the fighter who finished as a runner up on The Ultimate Fighter and was tipped for greatness, or you might get the man who was outclassed by Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Gegard Mousasi in three consecutive bouts.

As such I'm going to focus on Bryce Mitchell v Andre Fili.

Mitchell is a fighter who could potentially be a featherweight champion in the future. The Arkansas native has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and has been combining that grappling ability with his wrestling, which in itself continues to get better and better with time.

'Thug Nasty' has won nine out of his 13 pro wins by submission, and I think he takes that number into double figures against Fili.

Mitchell has landed seven takedowns across his last four fights, and has attempted nine submissions in that same time frame.

On the flip side of this, Fili is a fighter who has shown he is vulnerable to being submitted, with two submission losses on his record.

'Touchy' Fili is also a someone who is keen to get into a brawl, something Mitchell will look to avoid by taking the fight to the mat.

This could be difficult given Fili has a 69% takedown defence rate, but with the work Mitchell puts into his wrestling, I see him getting the job done, and wrapping up his opponent in a submission hold for the win.

Simple decision

By Will Dean

Alexander Hernandez has had three difficult match ups in a row across the last 18 months, but he is facing a step down in competition here against Chris Gruetzemacher. There should be a major disparity in both the speed and athleticism of these fighters, with Hernandez being six years younger.

Hernandez should be able to manage distance accordingly, darting in and out of range and keeping himself from being hit. The Great is a very well-rounded fighter who also likes to lean heavily on his wrestling and control his opponents on the mat, which would also serve him well in this fight. Gruetzemacher has struggled against grapplers in both of his UFC losses, and holds a 62% takedown defence record.

Hernandez has not attempted a submission in the UFC so far and holds only two tap-out victories on his 14-fight record. If he is able to land takedowns, then he will run down the clock with smothering top pressure and convince the judges to score the round in his favour.

I think Hernandez is simply the better fighter in every department, as the odds suggest. Whilst he has four KO victories on his resumé, I do not expect him to knock out a durable opponent in Gruetzemacher, who is yet to be knocked out professionally. I fancy this fight to go the distance, with Hernandez being awarded a 30-27 victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Side with Strickland

By Will Dean

Sean Strickland makes his long-awaited UFC return on Saturday night, having last competed two years ago. The American prospect was involved in a motorcycle accident shortly after his last bout, which unfortunately halted his ascent up the division’s rankings.

Prior to this we knew Strickland as a jack-of-all trades; with a good jab, endless cardio and dominant wrestling in his back pocket. On the mat, he advances position seamlessly, all while throwing heavy ground strikes. Strickland is also a product of Team Quest, one of the most notorious wrestling based camps in all of MMA.

His opponent, Jack Marshman, has struggled with grappling in all of his four UFC losses so far. The Welshman has managed to defend just 20% of the takedowns he has faced across seven bouts.

On the mat, he tends to turn to his back in an attempt to get back to his feet and does not hand-fight to prevent choke attempts as he should. Strickland has shown some lightning fast back takes inside the Octagon, and I fancy him to find his way to another submission on Saturday night.

Strickland’s only three losses in the UFC have come against top 15 competition (including current champion Kamaru Usman) and I cannot see him losing here. A powerful strike from Marshman would certainly change the complexion of this fight, so Strickland should take the path of least resistance and look for takedowns. On the mat, I think his Jiu-Jitsu is far superior and should make light work of the Welshman.

Posted at 1015 GMT on 29/10/20

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