UFC Fight Island: Main card free betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

1pt double Jessica Andrade and Petr Yan both to win at 2.96/1

2pts Jorge Masvidal v Kamaru Usman to go over 3.5 rounds at evens

Fight Island is here ladies and gentlemen and I am so excited for these next two weeks. The UFC is putting on four incredible cards over the next fortnight starting with Saturday night’s UFC 251, which has not one, not two, but three title bouts.

Here are my betting tips for Saturday night’s main card, while you can read Will Dean's take on the prelims here.

Yan can help land double

Jessica Andrade’s rematch with Rose Namajunas has a whole host of title implications for both women in the strawweight division.

Namajunas lost her title to Andrade after the Brazilian slammed her onto the canvas last year, but Andrade was unable to defend her title against Weili Zhang.

After that loss Namajunas spoke openly about the prospect of retirement, and I believe that gives Andrade the mental edge in this fight.

It is a shared thought in the MMA fanbase that once a fighter contemplates retirement, that’s when they should call it a day, as a fighter already has one foot out of the cage door by that point.

Besides, which last time out Andrade demonstrated that she was able to handle Namajunas effectively, both in the wrestling and in the standup, and given the Brazilian’s record for finishing fights (14 finishes in 20 wins), I believe that she will also finish the fight early again and be the next in line for a strawweight title fight.

Petr Yan makes up the second leg of this double, and I believe UFC 251 will be his crowning moment in the sport, as not only will he win the vacant bantamweight title, but he will beat one of the best fighters to have ever fought in the UFC.

Aldo lost his last fight to Marlon Moraes (his first in the UFC at 135lbs) when he looked to have been robbed on a judges' decision, but there were flaws exposed in that fight which Yan will look to exploit on Saturday night.

Firstly, Aldo absorbed 59 significant strikes in that bout with Moraes. If Yan can find the target with as many significant strikes (which he should given he has two extra rounds in which to do it) Aldo will be knocked out.

Yan has incredible knockout power but it doesn’t seem to fade as he goes deeper into the fight, as his fight with Uriah Faber showed, where he knocked out the 'California Kid' in the third round.

Secondly, Aldo was taken down by Moraes, who was also able to get past his guard.

Yan has a takedown accuracy of 53% and averages 1.73 takedown attempts per fight, meaning he can and will look to take an opponent to the mat, and once he is in top control, he maintains it and will look to damage his opponent.

These two factors combined with the fact Aldo no longer has the aura of invincibility around him like he did before he was knocked out by Conor McGregor adds to confidence.

Take overs in fight that should run

Jorge Masvidal v Kamaru Usman is a fight I’m really excited to see, but the fact it comes at short notice and how that has influenced fights in the past (Bisping winning the middleweight title on 11 days' notice while being a big betting underdog for example) makes me hesitant to try and select a winner.

Instead I am backing the fight to go over 3.5 rounds which looks the bet of the night at evens.

These men have gone to decisions a combined 35 times, meaning they have fought for at least three rounds.

You also have to consider the strengths of Usman as a factor in this bet. 'The Nigerian Nightmare' has very impressive cardio and prefers for fights to be longer affairs; just look at his performances against Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington for evidence of that.

Against Woodley, Usman looked like a machine and landed 141 significant strikes with two takedowns, while against Covington he landed 175 significant strikes and knocked out 'Chaos' in the fifth round.

Usman also has the option of just holding Masvidal with his wrestling if the fight isn’t going his way, with a 50% takedown accuracy and an average of 3.44 takedown attempts per fight, and I firmly expect this one to go beyond the third round.

Posted at 1120 BST on 09/07/20

Related links

• Will Dean's UFC Fight Island prelims tips

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