In-form tipsters Will Dean Kieran Cobley combine for three bets for UFC Fight Island 6 - read their in-depth preview for this weekend's action here.
Preliminaries by Will Dean
Gillian Robertson has been one of the most improved UFC combatants since she appeared on season 26 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2017. She has developed under the tutelage of renowned grappling coach Din Thomas since then, and is now revered as a dangerous submission threat and one of the most physically imposing fighters in the Women’s Flyweight division.
Poliana Botelho has gone 3-1 in her UFC career so far, but a decisive loss to Cynthia Calvillo in her third outing lowered her stock drastically. In that fight, Botelho showed a glaring weakness in the grappling department, being taken down and submitted in the first round.
Robertson will most likely be chomping at the bit to test her grappling against the Brazilian, as four of her five UFC victories have come by submission. Savage has a unique grappling style in that she is very aggressive in advancing position, often forcing her opponent into making a mistake on the mat and securing a submission as a result.
The statistics across both women’s careers further demonstrate how pivotal the grappling exchanges will be in this fight. Botelho has spent 42% of her UFC career in the inferior position, whilst Robertson has spent 65% of her UFC fight time in a dominant position.
Therefore, if Robertson is given significant time to work on top it is hard to see any other outcome than another tap-out victory for the ever-improving Canadian. She holds the record for the most stoppage victories in Women’s Flyweight history already, and I fancy her to further that record with another on Saturday night.
Main card by Kieran Cobley
UFC Fight Island 6 looks like a fantastic card from the outset. The main event sees the bad blood between Brian Ortega and “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung come to a head, while the undercard is filled with some great fights too, like Modestas Bukauskas versus Jimmy Crute.
Ortega vs TKZ is a fight I have been waiting to see for ages now. The fight should have happened last year but due to an Oretga injury it was pushed back, and since that initial postponement, the bad blood between these two has reached boiling point following an altercation between Ortega and his opponents' manager.
I’m backing the underdog in this fight, Ortega, who sits at 6/4 to win outright. But considering that 11 of his 14 wins have come by either submission or decision, the 15/8 double chance selection looks to be fantastic value.
This is Ortega’s first time back in the cage since his loss to Max Holloway (the then featherweight champion) two years ago, and in that time he will have no doubt sharpened his striking skills, which was his biggest flaw at one time.
The American is known for his outstanding grip when locking in submissions, and being able to make any submission hold he gets tighter with very minor adjustments, and that is what makes him so dangerous.
My prediction for this fight is very straightforward: I expect Ortega to test his new striking skills out early before looking to take the fight to the mat and go for a submission. If he can’t find a submission, I expect he will use his black belt level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills to hold the superior position and look to score points by landing strikes.
Modestas Bukauskas is a fighter that I think has the potential to be a real threat in the light heavyweight division. I have seen him come up through Cage Warriors and into the UFC - on his UFC debut he looked fantastic - and I am glad we get to see him take on a step up in opponent skill level.
Jimmy Crute is a very well rounded fighter, he has the ability to use his boxing and kickboxing to disguise his takedown attempts, and when the fight hits the floor he has a arsenal full of ways to hurt his opponents.
This is what makes Crute such a big step up in opposition for “The Baltic Gladiator”, Bukauskas in the past has took on fighters who are either primarily a striker, or primarily a wrestler, but never an opponent who can mix the two together.
I do think Bukauskas can ride this one out though. We saw in his last fight that when he was almost taken down, he was able to keep upright against the fence and land some devastating elbows to secure a KO win, the second time in succession he has used that tactic, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he used it again.
If the fight is primarily a stand up bout, that is where Bukauskas will look best. His background in kickboxing has given him some outstanding striking skills, and the speed at which he can move will make him difficult to hit back
At 11/4, he is a good value underdog too.
Posted at 2140 BST on 15/10/20
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