Super Bowl LV: The keys to victory and betting tips for Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Kansas City Chiefs
Against all odds, the Super Bowl is finally here, and it’s the NFL’s dream match-up. Their longtime legend of the league against their poster-boy prodigy, Tom Brady v Patrick Mahomes – two international icons.
Brady’s gamble on Tampa has paid off so far, throwing for 47 touchdowns on his way to hoisting the NFC title – but he now faces his biggest task of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mahomes has been a starting quarterback for just three years but he’s unlike anything ever seen before in the NFL – Tony Romo claims if he retired right now he’d get into the Hall of Fame.
Tom Brady could seal a historic seventh Super Bowl ring, or we could witness a legendary passing of the torch, with Mahomes winning his second Lombardi on the bounce.
However, there’s a lot more to this game than just Brady v Mahomes – here’s the keys to victory, and what you need to look out for.
Mahomes Magic
The last time Mahomes lost by more than one score was all the way back in 2016 with Texas Tech, he’s simply special.
In the AFC Championship game, the Bills got off to a strong start with a 9-0 lead after the first quarter. Before you knew it, the Chiefs had scored 21 points in the second quarter and their fate was sealed.
This offence is electric, you can only hope to slow it down – last year the Chiefs trailed in every single game throughout their playoff run, yet their victories were never in doubt. He will be the best player on the field come Sunday – expect back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs.
Brash Brady
Brady has thrown for 47 touchdowns this season, including seven in this current postseason stretch – but he’s also posted 15 interceptions, with three coming last time out.
Brady isn’t afraid to take risks, but he hasn’t been himself during the playoffs. Throughout the regular season the quarterback was completing 65.7% of his passes, but during the playoffs this number has dropped to a startling 55%. He was lucky to just have three interceptions against Green Bay, and we’ve seen some terrible throws through his last three games.
These two teams played against each other in Week 12 (Chiefs 27-24 Buccs), with Brady throwing for three touchdowns and two interceptions – I expect a similar fate for Brady, with this vicious Kansas defence stealing the ball.
Their secondary has 18 interceptions on the season, and with Brady likely chasing the lead late in the game, he’ll be forced into some risky throws. Brady’s accuracy will be a crucial factor in determining who lifts the Lombardi.
- Brady to throw an interception at 4/6 (Paddy Power)
The Tight End Extravaganza
Super Bowl 55 has gifted us with a tight end match-up for the ages. Travis Kelce is fresh off recording the most receiving yards by a tight end ever, and he hasn’t slowed down during the playoffs – with 28 catches, 325 yards and four touchdowns.
However, Tampa boasts an albeit ageing Gronk, arguably the greatest tight end we’ve ever seen. We haven’t seen the stat lines we’d expect from Gronkowski, but you can guarantee he’s been waiting for this game.
Tight ends will be crucial in this match, proving to be kryptonite against both defences – in terms of touchdowns conceded to the position both Kansas & Tampa stack up as the fifth worst in the league, with nine total TDs.
Throughout the playoffs we’ve seen an abundance of targets to TEs from opposing teams, and we can expect that trend to continue.
Kelce shows value to smash his overs for both receptions and yards, and the same goes for Rob Gronkowski’s low lines. Keep an eye out for Cameron Brate, too – who is 11/4 to find the end zone.
Big Shaq
Shaquil Barrett came up big for Tampa to secure the NFC Championship, with three sacks, four QB hits and two tackles for loss.
If the Bucs are to slow down the Chiefs’ offence, Barrett will need a similar performance – luckily for him Kansas will be without starting offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who tore his Achilles tendon against Buffalo. Mike Remmers will step up, which could be worrisome for Mahomes.
Remmers started for the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, where he got dominated – allowing seven QB hurries and three sacks. Since that fateful night Remmers has bounced from team to team, ending up as a backup for Kansas this year.
Tampa’s defensive line is loaded with Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul & Vita Vea attacking from all angles. Barrett needs to be the difference maker for Tampa, and he’s more than capable of putting in a game-winning performance.
Who will win?
Patrick Mahomes is simply the best player in the NFL. He’s everything you could ever want from a quarterback and more - and his supporting cast is arguably the best in the league.
We know Travis Kelce is poised to have a huge game, but Tyreek Hill is just as much of a threat (we saw what Marquez Valdes-Scantling did to this secondary – just imagine what Hill can do).
Brady needs to say error-free for this game to even be competitive, and that in itself is a big ask. Kansas’ offensive line worries will poise a big question mark over their offensive efficiency, but it’s easy to picture Mahomes rolling out of the pocket to deliver deep bombs downfield.
A new sheriff is in town – Brady’s reign is over, with Mahomes set to dominate the NFL for the next decade plus.
Super Bowl LV score prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-34 Kansas City Chiefs
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (01/02/21)
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