Super Bowl LV: Free NFL betting tips and RequestABet for Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs

Mecole Hardman to score a touchdown, Daniel Sorensen over 5.5 tackles & assists, Travis Kelce over 96.5 receiving yards at 11/1

Mecole Hardman to score a touchdown

When these two teams met in Week 12, Tyreek Hill embarrassed the Bucs’ secondary. The speedster put up video game numbers, with 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns. You can guarantee the Bucs will not let this happen again, with Tyreek seeing frequent double teams. With Hill drawing the attention, this will leave some open looks for the equally as rapid Hardman. Hardman is a threat in the passing game, on the ground (check out his 50 yard rush against the Bills), and on specials teams. Against the Packers, the Bucs’ secondary couldn’t handle Marquez Valdes-Scantling (115 yards and a score), so just imagine what Hardman’s speed could do against their DBs. The matchup favours Hardman here, who represents great value to find the end zone.

Daniel Sorensen over 5.5 tackles & assists

The appropriately named ‘Dirty Dan’ has been a mainstay in this Chiefs' secondary, with three interceptions, three forced fumbles, a touchdown and 103 combined tackles (solo + assisted tackles) on the season. He’s averaging over 6 combined tackles per game, so this 5.5 line is generous to say the least. The match-up also favours this line, with the Chiefs’ defensive weakness coming to tight ends. On the season they’ve conceded the joint fifth most TDs to TEs, alongside an abundance of targets, receptions & yards to the position - Gronk & Brate will feature heavily in the passing game for Tampa, expect Dirty Dan to smash this tackles line. If you need convincing further, the last time these teams played Sorensen had a seven tackle game.

Travis Kelce over 96.5 receiving yards

Kelce is in scary form right now. He has a touchdown in six straight games, including a brace last time out. In those six games he’s averaged over 110 receiving yards per game, and has back-to-back 100+ yard games in the playoffs. He’s a target machine, and this Tampa defence struggles against tight ends – ranking with Kansas as the joint fifth worst defence in the league to tight ends. The Mahomes/Kelce connection is arguably the safest and most dangerous in football. Kelce will get the volume, and put in another 100+ yard performance.

Mecole Hardman to score a touchdown, Daniel Sorensen over 5.5 tackles & assists, Travis Kelce over 96.5 receiving yards at 11/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5+ team sacks, Tom Brady to throw an interception, Mike Evans under 62.5 receiving yards, Rob Gronkowski over 28.5 receiving yards, Ryan Succop under 7.5 points at 50/1

5+ team sacks

It’s gone under the radar that the Kansas City Chiefs will be without three of their starting offensive linemen, including both tackles – Mitchell Schwartz & Eric Fisher. Backup Mike Remmers will step up, who has a Super Bowl nightmare to his name. In Super Bowl 50 against the Denver Broncos, Remmers allowed seven QB hurries and conceded three sacks alone. This Tampa defensive line ranks as one of the best in the league, with Barrett, Pierre-Paul, Suh & Vea set to terrorise Brady. Against the Packers’ strong offensive line, Barrett & Pierre-Paul combined for five sacks alone. Expect this group to feast against the backups.

Tom Brady to throw an interception

Throughout the regular season Brady was completing 65.7% of his passes, but during the playoffs that number has dropped to 55%. He had three interceptions last time out, and he was lucky it wasn’t more. We’ve seen some truly awful throws from the 43-year-old throughout the playoffs, and he had a poor outing when these two teams played last – with two interceptions. This Kansas secondary has 18 interceptions on the season, and with Brady likely chasing the lead late in the game, he’ll be forced to pass the ball more than he’d like. Expect Brady to take riskier throws, and watch this Kansas defence snatch the ball.

Mike Evans under 62.5 receiving yards

Evans is one of the biggest boom or bust receivers ever, with 100+ yard games or duds. He has five games with over 100+ yards this season, and four games with under ten yards. Last week he caught just three of his eight targets for 51 yards, comfortably below his line. This Kansas defence is deceptively great against WRs, with only the Rams allowing fewer yards to the position on the season. Throughout the playoffs they have kept Jarvis Landry to 20 yards, and held Stefon Diggs to 77 yards (the majority of which were picked up with the game already over). Tampa simply boasts such a variety of WRs that Brady will feed his receivers who can actually move the chains. When these teams met in Week 12, Evans caught three of his nine targets for 50 yards and two touchdowns. His height makes him a lethal red zone weapon, but he will struggle to go over 62.5 yards.

Rob Gronkowski over 28.5 receiving yards

Gronk has been waiting for this game. We may not have seen the stat-lines you’d expect from the veteran, but he’s been waiting for the Super Bowl. This Kansas defence is solid against WRs, but shows weakness to TEs – ranking as the joint fifth worst in the league to the position in terms of TDs conceded. Gronk is a matchup nightmare, and he has hit over 28.5 yards in 12 of his 19 games. When these teams played each other in Week 12, Gronk caught six of his seven targets for 106 yards. Expect a vintage display from the veteran tight end.

Ryan Succop under 7.5 points

To beat Mahomes, you have to take risks, you cannot be conservative. Field goals simply aren’t enough, the Bucs need to score touchdowns on almost every drive or Mahomes will make them pay. The 7.5 line may seem low, but in Tampa’s 31-26 win over Green Bay, Succop scored seven points, with one field goal and four extra points. This will come down to Bruce Arians’ confidence in his offence, but they need to be aggressive. Succop has also missed nine kicks this season, with his most recent miss coming in the playoffs against Washington.

5+ team sacks, Tom Brady to throw an interception, Mike Evans under 62.5 receiving yards, Rob Gronkowski over 28.5 receiving yards, Ryan Succop under 7.5 points at 50/1

Odds correct at 1145 GMT (05/02/21)

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