Ross Williams bids to sign off a profitable 2024 on a high with three selections for Sunday's slate, two involving the sensational Saquon Barkley.
NFL betting tips: Week 17
3pts Saquon Barkley over 110.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (General)
1pts Saquon Barkley (Eagles) to score 2+ touchdowns at 21/10 (General)
2pts Packers @ Vikings – Over 48.5 Total Match Points at 10/11 (General)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Sunday 1800 GMT
With two games of the regular season to go, SAQUON BARKLEY is 268 yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s long-standing, single-season rushing record. To a mere mortal, that seems like a quite a distance, but for a player of Barkley’s ability, it’s achievable.
Of course, winning a Super Bowl in February is the primary goal for all of the NFL’s top teams but, make no mistake, Barkley breaking the record would be a huge feather in the cap of a franchise that prides itself on its ability to move the ball down the field. So, I expect Philadelphia to give their star every chance of making history.
In order to topple Dickerson’s record, Barkley will need to average 134 yards across his final two games of the campaign. The superstar running back’s seasonal average to this point is a shade below (122.5 yards) but the match-ups he’ll face are in his favour.
First up, it’s the Cowboys on Sunday and Dallas have had trouble all season long stopping the run. They allow 135.9 rushing yards per game (sixth-worst in the NFL) and no team in the league has allowed more rushing touchdowns.
It’s an Achilles Heel that Philadelphia would have surely looked to exploit anyway, but even more so in the situation they find themselves in. Barkley’s record-hunt is a major consideration, but there’s also the absence of quarterback Jalen Hurts to contend with. He will miss Sunday’s game due to being in the concussion protocol.
Kenny Pickett is likely to start for the Eagles, despite nursing a slight injury himself. Pickett is no stranger to the NFL, but his passing ability leaves a little to be desired so it’s likely the Eagles will lean even more heavily into the run game that has proven so effective in 2024.
To give Barkley a shot at history against his former team, the New York Giants, in the final week of the season, he ideally needs to split the required 268 yards in half and I suspect head coach Nick Sirianni will at least give him the reps to do so.
Barkley had 29 rushing attempts last week – his most of the season – and he turned those opportunities into 150 yards. He also scored two touchdowns and, without Hurts eating into Philly’s red zone snaps, it would be a genuine surprise if Barkley doesn’t score at least once on Sunday.
The Cowboys have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, but Barkley is no average running back. In 2024, he’s averaged a massive 5.9 yards per carry.
If we split the difference, we can expect Barkley to go for 5.35 yards per carry on Sunday and that makes his player prop line of 110.5 yards very achievable. Without anything particularly extraordinary, a 21-carry game for Barkley should see him clear that mark and land the ‘overs’.
He’s carried the ball 21+ times on eight occasions this season and – with Hurts out and an ideal match-up ahead of him – it would be very surprising if his name wasn’t called plenty on Sunday. Let’s ride with Saquon, as he attempts to give himself a shot at history.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
- Sunday 2125 GMT, live on Sky Sports
The late window on Sunday has lined up another potential classic. The second meeting of the Packers and Vikings this season is mouthwatering, and even more so when you truly get to grips with how good these two teams have been in 2024.
The Vikings have lost just two games all year; both within a five-day period in October. Outside of those two blips against the Rams and Lions, they’ve been perfect and their current run of wins stands at eight straight.
Green Bay have dropped four games this season, but only to exceptional opponents. The Lions have twice had their number, Philadelphia beat them way back in week one and their remaining defeat was at the hands of Minnesota.
That particular game ended 31-29, and that points to a tantalising possibility this weekend. The over/under line is set at 48.5 points and that’s relatively low in a match-up featuring two of the league’s top 10 scoring offences. Combined, these two average 53.9 points per game.
The ramifications attached to a late-season game are in play here and should be considered, but I don’t believe too much should be detrimental to our chances. Both of these teams are bound for the playoffs regardless of their next two outcomes and I don’t believe either will be in the mood to put their cue on the rack this weekend.
Minnesota still have an outside chance of catching Detroit and topping the NFC North, so we’re a week shy of the Vikings looking to bench their star players.
As for Green Bay, they admittedly have less to play for in tangible terms, but this isn’t Matt LaFleur’s first rodeo and we know how he tends to react in these scenarios. The Packers head coach is a big believer in momentum and keeping his foot firmly on the gas as his side heads into the postseason.
The evidence? He’s 20-3 as head coach of the Packers in the month of December.
Posted at 2050 GMT on 27/12/24
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