Ross Williams previews the AFC Championship game as Kansas City Chiefs host Buffalo Bills for a place in the Super Bowl.
NFL betting tips: AFC Championship game
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-2) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 10/11 (General)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Kick-off time: Sunday 23:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: Bills +1.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 48.5 @ 5/6
The same old story, or the start of something new?
That’s the question as we head into Championship Sunday and yet another blockbuster clash between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s easy to make a case for Buffalo. Josh Allen is routinely playing at MVP-level, season after season, and the Bills’ offence on the whole has been extraordinary this year. They averaged 30.9 points per game in regular season play, second only to the Detroit Lions.
Plus, they’re the kings of the turnover game. Their tally of eight giveaways in 17 games is the lowest in the NFL and only the Minnesota Vikings managed more takeaways.
Overall, the Bills’ turnover differential was +24. That’s a remarkable figure, eight better off than their nearest rivals this season and the best mark in recent NFL history.
But…you knew there was a ‘but’ coming.
History isn’t everything in sport, but it counts for something and few know that better than these two teams.
Quite frankly, the Bills are sick of seeing Kansas City in January. The Chiefs have taken down their primary AFC rival in three-straight postseason games and there’s no doubt that KC have a huge psychological edge in this match-up.
The Bills also head to Arrowhead Stadium with another unwanted record strapped to their backs. Buffalo have lost each of their last seven playoff games away from Western New York.
That’s a big problem and it’ll undoubtedly be in the back of many Buffalo minds as they head to Missouri and the fortress that the Chiefs call home.
Statistically, I could understand an underdog stab on the Bills, but it would be foolish of me to go against my pre-season outright selection in the very game that could deliver them another Super Bowl appearance.
Kansas City aren’t all that flashy when it comes to numbers. They had the 15th-ranked scoring offence during the regular season and half the league ended the year with more total yardage.
And yet, the Chiefs have won 16 games since September and dropped just two. They’re a remarkable machine and – if you’ll excuse the cliché – they just know how to win.
In last week’s divisional round, the Texans accumulated more total yards, more first downs and they held possession for seven full minutes longer than Kansas City.
But when all was said and done, the Chiefs won by nine points and despite all logic suggesting a Houston comeback was possible - and even likely – Kansas City never truly looked in danger of dropping the game. There was an inevitability about the outcome for the entire second half.
Buffalo’s proficiency in the turnover game is an element that many will understandably lean on this weekend, but here’s the kicker:
Andy Reid’s team are on a run of eight-straight games in which they haven’t committed a single turnover.
Give me the Chiefs.
CLICK HERE to back Kansas (-2) to win with Sky Bet
Posted at 1950 GMT on 25/01/25
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