Scottie Scheffler could become a grand slam champion tonight, but has six shots to find on his playing partner. Ben Coley previews round four of the US Open.
Golf betting tips: US Open final round
No outright recommendations
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It was a strange Saturday at the US Open. Conditions at Shinnecock were tougher, much tougher at first, but rather than intensify as the day wore on they became quite a bit easier, meaning the USGA's decision to go out extremely late had an effect on play. That decision also seemingly sent thousands of fans scrambling to get the last train home, well before the round was complete, leading to a subdued finish to what could yet prove to be a significant day in the history of the sport.
With great respect to the leader, Wyndham Clark, if the 2023 winner does it again in 2026 that won't alter much beyond his status in the game. The real significance comes from what happens if he doesn't, and what happens if Scottie Scheffler is the beneficiary. The very last acts of Scheffler's round were fittingly deflating given the scenes unfolding around him, but before that the grand slam-seeking world number one had worked his way right into the thick of this tournament.
Defeat for Clark would also mean failure to convert what is a massive lead of six shots. When Scheffler stood over his eagle putt on the 16th it looked like it might be half that number or less; when he missed and, later, Clark made a brilliant eagle of his own, it looked like it might be wider. In the end, Clark's short miss at the 18th hole, jarring given how well he'd holed such putts before, left him with half a dozen to defend. Twenty-one players have walked this walk; 20 won. It's 30 years since Greg Norman did not.
Exchange odds of 2/5 about Clark might make dispassionate professionals sit up and pay attention. Six-shot leaders win more than 85% of the time and the few exceptions have always required a blend of brilliance and botchery: all those who were caught, dating back to Norman, shot 72 or higher to open the door. If Clark shoots 72 to post five-under, he can only be caught by a round of 66 from one of four players. On Saturday, nobody in the field managed that score and just two broke 70.
Of course, each situation is different, and Clark will have to head to that first tee to face the game's best player. It seems fair to assume the crowd will be against him, which at times was audible even when paired with an Englishman on Saturday. Scheffler, in pursuit of history, will carry most if not all of the support and while yes, Clark faced something broadly similar alongside Rickie Fowler in 2023, back then he was an inoffensive underdog rather than the pantomime villain he's since become.
Scheffler faces pressure of a different kind. However much he deflects away from it, however convincingly he repeats his lines about how this sport won't define who he is, it was very clear during his back-nine charge how much it matters in the moment. It took Rory McIlroy more than a decade to complete the career grand slam and the fact nobody thinks it's even in doubt that Scheffler will do so adds its own pressure. He will know himself, chances to win this in the future are no given.
Scheffler was in fact in the group behind Clark at LACC three years ago but couldn't land a blow. He'll need something more in line with the previous year's closing 67 at Brookline, which almost earned him a play-off, and even then requires help from the leader. After his long-game fired in a way it hasn't for a little while during Saturday's 69, more of the same might yet create a thrilling finish to a tournament which felt like the life had been sucked out of it at the end of round three, but so much depends on Clark.
That the names Sahith Theegala (40.0 on Betfair Exchange), Tom Kim (40.0) and Sam Stevens (60.0) are yet to be mentioned despite sitting alongside Scheffler says much about how this tournament appears set to unfold. Either Scheffler will reel in Clark or nobody will. Perhaps that's a simplistic way to view a complicated set of circumstances, but it speaks to how hard I find it to see Clark, who has been superb, shooting the sort of number that would bring another dozen or more candidates into the equation.
On everything we know, the market is right in one way, wrong in another. Scheffler is by far the most likely to win the US Open if Clark does not. But Clark is more likely to win the US Open than he's being given credit for.
Golf betting tips: US Open two-balls
2pts Henley and Matsuyama to win their two-balls at 13/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Henley, Matsuyama and Bridgeman to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Scheffler and Burns to win their two-balls at 7/4 (General)
1pt Scheffler, Burns and Fitzpatrick to win their two-balls at 100/30 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets
One other factor to ponder today is that the weather forecast is different. Saturday's proven accurate: late starters were due to face easier conditions than those out early, and so it proved. Today, that is not the case, but while that might allow for some early moves, the wind is modest throughout. Perhaps that in some way suits the chasers if there does prove to be a 63 out there, which there was, remember, in 2018.
Rory McIlroy occupies roughly the same slot on the tee-sheet that Fleetwood did but his wedge play has been poor at times and those who do want to play the low final round market, at the time of writing offered by the Flutter firms but one BOYLE Sports often chalk up too, may consider taking some of the best players who are out in the morning. RUSSELL HENLEY, Chris Gotterup and HIDEKI MATSUYAMA would be my shortlist.
Of this trio, Henley looks the banker to beat Peter Uihlein, the gap between them in DataGolf's rankings almost 300 places. He's priced accordingly but 6/4 and upwards for the double with Matsuyama seems a solid way to start the day, the latter up against Neal Shipley, whose chipping and putting has been abysmal all season. Gotterup plays with Robert MacIntyre, and I'm happy leaving him out as a result.
Matsuyama has shot 70 or better nine times in just 13 US Open final rounds so has stacks of form under these circumstances and no pressure to worry about, whereas Shipley is in need of every point he can if he's to avoid a return to the Korn Ferry Tour at the end of the season. With another Signature Event to come next week he's looking at a very small number of opportunities remaining and has to go on the attack here.
Returning to Henley, accuracy has triumphed over power so far, even if it's not always looked like being that way, and there are no two players more polarised than these two in that regard. Uihlein is especially wild off the tee and while Henley played poorly in Saturday's winds, with that factor nullified I'd be extremely disappointed if he can't plot his way to a score which is beyond Uihlein's reach.
For those interested, JACOB BRIDGEMAN's price varies quite a bit from bookmaker to bookmaker and I'd be more on the side of 1/3 being correct than the 8/15 and 11/20 offered elsewhere. That's quite a significant difference and the Riviera champion is playing not only with a mid-ranking amateur, but one whose short-game has kept his head above water. I'd be comfortable banking on that coming to a grinding halt on Sunday.
A similar argument can be made for Jackson Van Paris beating Spencer Tibbits, who has no tour-level form to speak of and was near last at DP World Tour Q-School at the end of last year. Van Paris has struggled a bit on the Korn Ferry Tour lately but has a PGA Tour top 10 to his name and is a cut above Tibbits on all known form. The latter has holed all kinds of shots on and around the greens so far this week, too.
As ever, it's a bit of a mixed bag in terms of what's available and where, made trickier by the fact the Flutter firms price these matches without a tie option. That means stakes are refunded for dead-heats, but also that the above 6/1 four-fold pays about 5/2. I'd rather be against the draw too but this is a textbook example of knowing readers will have to decide which bits of the reasoning to apply where they can.
I considered putting up the four-fold, which is a best of 13/2 with William Hill, but there are too many firms either with very different prices or no prices at all on the Van Paris match, so we'll leave him out of calculations.
Into the evening and the matches of real consequence, I feel compelled to oppose Keith Mitchell again. It backfired yesterday but this largely modest putter leads the field with that club and on balance of probabilities, a frustrating day on the greens, with the pressure ramped up, seems likely.
The man across the tee box, SAM BURNS, happens to be the best putter on the PGA Tour or thereabouts.
Burns is in very good form and he's aiming for a third straight US Open top-10, his name becoming a familiar presence on major leaderboards. Since the 2024 US Open he's been close to the lead several times and this would be his fourth top-10 finish from nine straight major cuts made were he to close out strongly, which I expect him to.
While I'm not expecting Clark to fold, upwards of 1/2 about SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER beating anyone is usually good business and especially so in these circumstances, with the crowd behind him, his game peaking yesterday, and calmer conditions definitely in his favour.
Clark has been exceptional but he's also ridden his luck off the tee and if Scheffler handles the occasion, which he should, he ought to close the gap.
Finally, ALEX FITZPATRICK can cap a brilliant spring-summer by finishing well and beating his amateur playing partner at similar odds.
Ryder Cowan's approach play and putting have been modest so we'll see how he does now the low amateur prize is within reach. It's plausible that Jackson Koivun and Miles Russell, playing together and sure to attract a crowd, apply pressure which gets to him.
Either way, Fitzpatrick is on a bit of a free hit from off the pace and he hit the ball really, really well yesterday. More of the same and one or two more putts will be all it takes to win this with a bit to spare.
Posted at 08:55 BST on 21/06/26
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