The PGA Championship is set up for a fantastic weekend at Aronimink, where Scottie Scheffler remains favourite. Ben Coley previews round three.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round three
2pt double Conners and McNealy to win their two-balls at 31/10 (General)
The US Open has arrived a month early under the guise of a mere PGA Championship, and what a weekend we have ahead of us at Aronimink.
Friday’s brutal start didn’t quite intensify in the way we might’ve expected, those out late seemingly getting the best of the draw, but still the lead edged forward only by a shot to four-under. An enormous 82 players made the cut; all are within eight.
Perhaps a perfect leaderboard would include some of the high-profile casualties, and for maximum intrigue we’d need Jordan Spieth closer than he is, but golf isn’t a game of perfection and this is close enough.
Up front we’ve a player who hasn’t won professionally alongside another who hasn’t done so often enough. Behind them we’ve the first wave: players from Japan, Australia, South Africa, Germany, and the USA.
And behind them we’ve the second: the big names, including Scottie Scheffler and the current Players champion, Cameron Young. Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Si Woo Kim, David Puig, all of them world-class or almost; all of them bar Scheffler a potential major champion.
Such is the strength of this collective that the winner is probably within two of the lead heading into the weekend. But as Chris Gotterup demonstrated in his best-of-the-week 65, huge moves can be made here and there are seven hours between first and final groups. Nobody will feel out of it, not yet.
Scheffler putted by far the worst of the key contenders on Friday but, true to form, turned a bad day into a manageable one. This was a better exercise in damage control than he managed at the equivalent time in the Masters and having stormed home to finish second there he remains the man they all have to beat.
At 4/1 it’s only the depth of the leaderboard which tempers enthusiasm and as far as the outright market is concerned, I’m not too keen to go back in. Aberg is third favourite and hitting the ball beautifully, Patrick Cantlay is close enough if he can make a putt or two, and Brooks Koepka could still have a say from five back providing he’s on it today.
Along with Joaquin Niemann, all four of these each-way selections rank prominently in the tee-to-green statistics but have been foxed by the greens. That can change in a heartbeat and I’m optimistic, somehow, that at least one of them can crack the top eight, while the Niemann-Jaeger specials double is now 1/2 from an advised 4/1.
Today’s two-balls aren’t easy, with extreme conditions always complicating things, but COREY CONNERS does look an excellent bet against Nick Taylor in a battle of Canadians.
Conners ranks first in strokes-gained ball-striking so far and Taylor is outside the top 100, surviving on his putter. His approach play has been particularly poor and will surely need to improve if he’s to advance his position.
Of course, Conners’ putting is always a worry but there’s another factor here and that’s his superior majors record. He contended for this at the Donald Ross-designed Oak Hill three years ago, has often been close to the lead in the Masters, and has top-10 finishes at the other two as well.
Given how well he’s striking it, even by his high standards, he ought to enter the weekend full of confidence whereas Taylor might be clinging on grimly to hopes of his best finish, knowing that his long-game has been really poor.
I’ll double him with MAVERICK MCNEALY and this largely comes down to a sense that Alex Smalley may struggle with the occasion.
Smalley is one of the best maidens on the PGA Tour but a maiden he remains and it would go down as one of the most impressive victories in this tournament’s history were he to change that now.
McNealy played well in all four majors last year and again at the Masters, while he’s contended for several Signature Events since winning the RSM Classic 18 months ago. He’s a former world number one amateur who has always been capable of competing for the game’s highest honours.
My concern coming into the week would’ve been that his ball-striking isn’t quite good enough but he has been exceptional so far, ranking fourth. Smalley meanwhile leads the field in putting and as he’s not usually of McNealy’s class in that regard, I can’t see how these two have been chalked up as equals.
Yes, Smalley’s very recent form is comparable, but we’ve stacks of evidence that puts McNealy a fair few steps ahead of him, and it’s all part of the experience that should make him feel far more at ease when they head to the first tee knowing that the opening stretch here is vital.
Posted at 08:35 BST on 16/05/26
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