Free golf betting tips for WGC-Mexico Championship from Ben Coley

WGC-Mexico recommended bets

1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters at 50/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

What a difference a year makes.

Twelve months ago, Tommy Fleetwood completed his transformation to elite level with a runner-up finish in the WGC-Mexico Championship, forcing Dustin Johnson to pull out all the stops as he won on his first start as the world's top-ranked player.

Johnson was his usual self - all carefree brilliance, what will be will be - but as mistakes crept in on the back-nine of what had looked like another victory parade, perhaps he was fortunate that Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas were both contending for the first time at this level. Thomas made some impatient mistakes early on Sunday while Rahm three-putted 16 and 17 to miss out by two. Handed the same opening again, few would expect the same outcome.

In the end it was left to Fleetwood, a 200/1 chance at the start of the week, to ask the biggest question of Johnson with a 38-foot birdie on the final hole before the reigning US Open champ played what he called his best shot of the week, an approach from sand to inside 20 feet enough to ensure that he would add a fourth World Golf Championship title to his collection, before collecting a fifth soon after.

At the time, Johnson appeared unbeatable. After all, he'd managed to win this event despite starting it with a three-wood through the green and out of bounds at the par-four opening hole, which resulted in double, and despite missing no fewer than 16 putts from inside 10 feet during the week.

Both those facts tell us a little about Club de Golf Chapultepec, a par 71 which measures over 7,300 yards but plays significantly shorter due to the altitude factor here on the outskirts of Mexico City. Most players, when interviewed, referred to altitude and to small, sloped greens as the two biggest challenges.

Ross Fisher, who finished third, said the ball was travelling some 20 per cent further than usual while Rory McIlroy boasted of walloping his eight-iron an eye-watering 210 yards. DJ's three-wood to the opener on Thursday carried 330, while short-hitting Roberto Castro struck a drive beyond 400 yards which I would wager he'd never done before.

As for the greens, Phil Mickelson labelled them the golf course's "greatest challenge" and perhaps they were too hard for anyone to truly master. Ultimately, the final leaderboard was a list of elite ball-strikers and neither Johnson nor Fleetwood putted particularly well. Eight of the top 10 could be called long, world-class drivers of the ball, too, although Johnson said he barely had to reach for the big stick and relied instead on his trusty two-iron.

Fleetwood was among my selections for the event last year in the vague hope that the challenge would suit European players, especially those with form in the Swiss Alps at Crans-sur-Sierre, and that angle was supported when the man himself described Chapultepec as "a very European course" en route to second place.

All told, 11 of the top 22 finishers were European and another was European Tour stalwart Fabrizio Zanotti, who bagged 12th place for by far his best performance in elite company. The Paraguayan went on to finish third at Crans later in the year, a course at which top-10 finishers Fleetwood, Fisher and Tyrrell Hatton have thrived, so however tenuous it may seem, the Omega European Masters might be a decent guide.

In the US, the eye is drawn to the Barracuda Championship played up in the mountains in Reno, except for the fact that it is low grade by nature, while the 2014 BMW Championship won by Billy Horschel may in time prove a decent pointer. It was an event played at altitude in Colorado and dominated by ball-strikers, with the likes of Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy close behind Horschel and Bubba Watson.

Garcia, who owns a home in Crans, is tempting enough at 28/1 having been 12th here last year and there's a case for altitude-winning, big-hitting Gary Woodland at around twice that price, but my idea of the best bet is in fact Paul Casey.

Those are not words I type often, but 40/1 about the world number 17 looks a solid option on this occasion after a slightly underwhelming performance at Riviera last time saw his odds eased slightly.

Prior to that, Casey had started the season with back-to-back top-10 finishes and he looks exactly the right type of player for this test based on last year's leaderboard, one he worked his way up with rounds of 67 and 66 over the weekend - one better than DJ, one worse than Fleetwood, and third in the field.

His record in WGCs last year read 16-9-5-11 and in an event where the ball-strikers may once again dominate, he's the only player in this field bar DJ who currently sits inside the top 10 for strokes-gained tee-to-green and has also done so at the end of every year since 2015.

It's no secret that Casey is among the world's best in that regard and of course the issue is that it's almost 10 years since his sole success on the PGA Tour, but with the Ryder Cup once again on the agenda and having turned 40 last year, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended that drought in the near future.

Indeed it was interesting to read his interview with The Telegraph's James Corrigan at the start of 2018, in which Casey spoke not only of how confident he is but also about having apologised to his caddie when failing to win the TOUR Championship last September - something he'd never done before. At least he's aware of and willing to confront the issue, rather than making excuses; to me that looks like a step in the right direction.

Casey ended the interview by stating "you could say we are highly-motivated, yes" and with form at altitude including at Crans, this golf course looks one of the more suitable in the run-up to Augusta, where he also tends to play well. I know full well that won't do for everyone and I'm usually keen to take on players with his strike-rate, but this is one rare occasion I can't resist.

DJ is perfectly entitled to go and win this again and would be a better option than Thomas at the head of the market, but forced to choose between those at 20/1 down it would be Jordan Spieth for me. He carded a course-record 63 here last year - that nobody else managed to shoot better than 65 all week tells you how good a round it was - and there have been definite signs that he's returning to his best of late.

The trouble is, he failed to break par in any of his other three rounds here and bumpy poa annua greens remain somewhat problematic. Odds of 14/1 about Spieth winning a small-field event are always tempting, but on this occasion no more than that.

Fleetwood should go well and Rickie Fowler is out to a backable price, while Phil Mickelson is in red-hot form and managed to finish seventh here a year ago despite finding all sorts of bother off the tee, and being forced into a mid-tournament caddie change when Jim McKay was taken ill during Friday's second round.

It was Phil's brother, Tim, who stepped in and he's now a permanent and established feature, so given Mickelson's play of late there are reasons to expect improvement from last year. Not much is needed to make him a major player, although backers seem sure to have some heart-in-mouth moments around this narrow layout.

I really like Matt Fitzpatrick's game for the course, more so after his win at Crans last year, but it's concerning to me that he's had a month off since a missed cut in Dubai while Xander Schauffele is clearly getting comfortable with new equipment but concedes a little course experience to those who played the event a year ago and is narrowly overlooked as a consequence.

As you can tell, this isn't an event I feel like I have a strong handle on so my second and final selection is Thomas Pieters.

Fifth here a year ago despite playing the par-fives in level-par over the weekend and making bogey on the final hole of the tournament, Pieters clearly took to the course and I like the fact that his best efforts throughout 2017 came in elite company - second to DJ at Riviera, fifth to him here, fourth behind Garcia at The Masters and fourth again behind Hideki Matsuyama in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Combined with his efforts both in qualifying for and once at the Ryder Cup, it's fairly obvious that the ice-cool Belgian has that hard-to-quantify something that will make him a major force in the biggest and best tournaments going forward. While his victories so far have been in modest company, perhaps he'll ultimately prove the type of player to follow only when rubbing shoulders with the best, which of course means a bigger price.

He finished a promising 13th at the Honda Classic last week, signing off with a remarkable eagle, and will be itching for another crack at Club de Golf Chapultepec on the back of it. I have no qualms about taking 50/1.

Others on my shortlist included Pat Perez, a winner in Mexico who started brightly here last year, and Dylan Frittelli. The latter is playing well wherever he goes at the moment, has plenty of experience at altitude and, from his new base in Austin, looks like establishing himself on the PGA Tour.

WGCs do tend to go to elite players, though, and I don't see another Fleetwood in this week's field. Perhaps it's Chris Paisley or Shubhankar Sharma, both having taken huge steps forward on the European Tour of late, but in all likelihood this will be a tournament for those with Ryder Cup aspirations.

In that case, two near-certain members of Thomas Bjorn's European side should give us a good run.

Posted at 2015 GMT on 26/02/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet's WGC-Mexico betting
• Tshwane Open betting tips