Golf betting tips: Final-round preview for the Volvo China Open

• Pre-tournament 45/1 tip leads through 54 holes
• Second-placed Wiesberger has stacks of winning form
• Leaders tee off at 05:25 BST live on Sky Sports Golf

Golf betting tips: Volvo China Open final round

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Heading into this week's Volvo China Open, the key questions were to do with how Enhance Anting would play, and the extent to which we could rely on last year's leaderboard. Pre-tournament rain muddied the waters, raising as it always does the prospect of a bomber-friendly set-up, but thankfully that hasn't been the case. As hoped, straight and steady has if not won the race, then dominated it so far.

Despite being on the wrong side of the draw over the first two rounds, Adrian Otaegui leads by a shot from Bernd Wiesberger. Otaegui, our 45/1 pre-tournament selection, rode his luck towards the end of a sizzling 62 by chipping in at the 16th, holing a long par putt at the 17th, then narrowly avoiding a potential lost ball before making birdie at the 18th, but was perhaps owed that after playing in Thursday's wind and rain.

Wiesberger enjoyed similar fortune earlier in the third round, his drive to the short eighth twice seemingly set to find water only to first cover it by a yard, then be saved by a divot when rolling back towards it. An up-and-down birdie there saved him as many as two shots, though it must be said he later suffered a couple of lip-outs. If you're on either of the front two, things have just about balanced out and there can be no complaints.

On a spread-out leaderboard, Otaegui has one in hand over Wiesberger and there's a further three-shot gap back to Shaun Norris. The next four players are all explosive talents who are close enough to retain an interest in a tournament which has been one from off the pace many times before, but with Otaegui and Wiesberger boasting 13 DP World Tour wins between them including a couple in China, one of them ought to win.

Those who followed the pre-tournament advice may want to consider backing Wiesberger but I'm stubbornly refusing at below 2/1. Were the gap back to the remainder just fractionally wider and this a definite two-horse race then it would be hard to resist firing a cover shot, but I've seen far too many DP World Tour Sundays where the final group drag each other down. I don't expect these two to do it, but I can't rule it out either.

Ultimately I'm left hoping Otaegui can win this title for a second time, with little to add to that. For someone with five titles to his name he actually has very little experience in this sort of scenario, the first two having come in head-to-head competition, the third from four back, the fourth from six clear, and the latest, in this tournament, when five behind. It's been a case of extremes and he's never held a clear but narrow 54-hole lead.

Perhaps that head-to-head experience in the Belgian Knockout and Paul Lawrie Match Play may help but that feels like a stretch and in Wiesberger he faces a classy former Ryder Cup player. Granted, it's approaching five years since Wiesberger won and he has been disappointing when close to the lead on more than one occasion lately, but this is a great course for the 40-year-old who may enjoy this stalking position.

They are similar players, ultimately; Wiesberger the better driver, Otaegui the better putter, but both relying more on second and third shots. Wiesberger backers must be a bit worried about one or two pulled drives when he'd taken a stranglehold on the event but the bigger issue will be short putts, over which he is wobbly. For Otaegui it's perhaps whether he can continue to fall on the right side of fortune on and around the green. Putts can be a problem for him, too.

Otaegui though has been the clear best player so far, as the next five on the leaderboard played on the more favourable side of the draw. That tells you how well he's done to move into position and it leaves me believing Wiesberger's price is on the tight side. Without tempting fate, Otaegui is an extremely short price to at least place and return stakes for the event, so we'll leave things as they are.

Posted at 13:15 BST on 25/04/26

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