Zander Lombard is on the verge of a long-awaited breakthrough in the Soudal Open. Ben Coley previews the final round.
Golf betting tips: Soudal Open
2pts double Kaneko and Vaillant to win their two-balls at 2/1 (Betfred, BOYLE Sports)
1pt double Surratt and Green to win their two-balls at 17/5 (bet365)
Heading into the weekend of the Soudal Open, we had a fascinating dynamic: two joint-leaders nicely clear on an otherwise packed leaderboard, both of them talented but roguish maidens. OK, maybe that's harshness by proximity where Tom Vaillant is concerned, the Frenchman only 24 and still learning the ropes, but there are definite parallels in the way he and Zander Lombard play the game.
As it happens, these two ranked side-by-side in the driving accuracy statistics last year, occupying the 114th and 115th spots, and neither is the type you'd automatically associate with Rinkven International. The similarities between them go as far as near identical course records that support this notion: in a combined seven starts, they've each finished in a best of 41st place.
With little in the way of pre-tournament form, Lombard was a 200/1 shot. Vaillant, sixth in China last month and solid in Spain recently, was further up the betting but nowhere near the top of it. So going into a baking-hot weekend with Rinkven set to dry out, what exactly were we to expect from two big talents who played wonderfully for two rounds? Your guess would've been as good as mine (obviously, by this point).
The first part of the answer is that Lombard, the more experienced of the two and a wide-margin Q-School winner late last year, started brilliantly and bounced back from a late mishap to establish a clear lead, whereas Vaillant made mistakes at the wrong time and now has work to do.
It's hard to judge who is the best maiden on the DP World Tour as there are all sorts of factors to consider, but of those with over 200 starts, Lombard must surely be right up there. Lombard has battled injuries and endured several close calls, often doing little wrong. He's very much due and this is a golden opportunity with a three-shot lead. Twelve years a professional, on a purely sporting level he'd be a welcome winner.
While Lombard's finish was a blow, Nathan Kimsey and Victor Perez both made nice moves and suddenly there's hope of a good outcome. Neither could be called a likely winner but Perez might have been had he packed his putter; instead, a series of short misses (even allowing for the DP World Tour's shot-tracking and its, erm, kinks) leaves him with only an outside chance and that will require help from the leader.
Place money would do nicely to be honest but the top of the leaderboard does retain that boom-or-bust feeling created by the halfway pacesetters, now that MJ Daffue has joined in. Another powerful driver who can putt, he is the form pick on recent evidence having won on the HotelPlanner Tour and contended for the Indian Open on this one, but to say he has a mistake in him would be an understatement.
Daffue's clubs didn't arrive until late on Wednesday and there's been a glorious butterfly effect, as that forced him to spend some time working with his supplier on the putter. I like how he took on the course in India when third behind Alex Fitzpatrick and, playing on an invite with a DP World Tour card up for grabs (he'll get it anyway in November), he'll remain aggressive.
"My best is world-class," is what Daffue said after a closing birdie and playing with Lombard in the final group will surely help both.
I don't blame anyone for taking on Lombard, though. Clearly, and as he would admit, he's not put four rounds together for some time (OK, he managed six at Q-School, but at this level it's been two years) and has always been the sort to make a seven out of nowhere. However, that's factored into the prices. Even-money about a very good golfer with a three-shot lead is, if anything, a touch on the generous side.
My token pick against him would be Jacob Skov Olesen, a dynamite putter who flew home in Turkey recently. He was the last name off my pre-tournament shortlist, concerns over his approach play enough in the end to overlook some handy form at similar courses, both in his native Denmark, in the Turkish Open, and in Kenya. The latter in particular always serves as a good guide and firming conditions will help.
But Olesen stumbled at the finish when everyone it seems thought Lombard would be the one to do so, and that means a four-shot gap to bridge, with a handful of others to worry about if the leader does open the door. Maybe, inspired by the performance of young compatriot Yurav Premlall, buoyed by both his own finish and the way he dominated Q-School, this is finally the day that Lombard slams it shut.
Best two-ball bets
There are a few interesting two-ball options starting with CALEB SURRATT, who has nothing to lose from an early tee-time and could leave Matteo Manassero in his wake. Surratt is the better player as of today and his explosiveness makes him a tempting option if you are playing the dew-sweepers, among whom I must admit to being tempting by GAVIN GREEN at odds-against versus an 18-year-old amateur.
That double pays upwards of 3/1 and while aware of the risks attached to both players around a course like this one, the prices seem off. Lev Grinberg has plenty of course experience and no little promise, but Green was threatening to win this time last year and appears to have found some form on his fourth start back from a ban. I'd have to make him favourite.
Later on, tempting though it was to side with Jorge Campillo on price grounds I don’t want to be opposing Kimsey, so I’ll keep it simple with KOTA KANEKO and TOM VAILLANT.
Kaneko made a bad error on the 16th hole but otherwise played superbly in round three and this tidy young Japanese player, a good course fit on paper, continues to impress. We should expect to see him in the mix a good few times this year and I think he’ll hang around on Sunday.
Renato Paratore arrived in miserable form and simply doesn’t hit the ball well enough these days to stay competitive on the DP World Tour. That’s been true this week and at 52nd in the tee-to-green stats, he’s required a red-hot putter to remain on the fringes of contention. Hopefully, a fiery version of Rinkven penalises him whereas it should play to Kaneko's straight-hitting strengths.
Vaillant didn’t do that much wrong all things considered and I’d note that after a poor third round in China recently, he bounced back on Sunday. Expect more of the same on a day of opportunity whereas Albin Bergstrom, yet to make a cut all year, is under immense pressure. His prospects of playing on the DP World Tour next year may depend on how he performs and while he produced a gutsy performance in last year’s Grand Final, he’ll do well to stay in touch.
Posted at 18:20 BST on 23/05/26
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