Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship
2pts win Matt Fitzpatrick at 7/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Marco Penge at 8/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3)
Sungjae Im once won an event on the Florida Swing with a winning score in single digits under par: the 2020 Honda Classic after shooting 6-under. And the first-round leader may well achieve that same feat at this week’s Valspar Championship after staying out in front again in round three.
Im burst out of the gates this week with a 7-under 64 and he’s now nudged his score to 11-under after back-to-back 69s. After a strong start on Saturday, he drifted back to 10-under with bogeys at 12 and 13 but gave himself a lovely walk-off boost by holing a 13-foot birdie putt at 18 to secure a two-shot lead. Im, who hasn’t won since the 2021 Shriners, is 13/10 to convert.
An opening question: do we often see comebacks at the Valspar Championship? Well, 11 of the last 17 winners didn’t have a piece of the lead. Charl Schwartzel (2016) and Paul Casey (2018) actually came from five back after starting day four in eighth and 11th respectively although they are exceptions.
The strongest stat is that 13 of the last 16 champions here were in the top four after 54 holes. If history says the leader is vulnerable, this is very good news for those ranked second to fourth on the leaderboard right now. That mixed bunch features Brandt Snedeker and David Lipsky at 9-under, with English duo Matt Fitzpatrick and Marco Penge a further shot in arrears.
The fact that it’s then two strokes back to those in sixth helps narrow our focus. That pair on 6-under are Belgium’s Adrien Dumont De Chassart and Korea’s S.H. Kim. Had it been Brooks Koepka (4-under) or Patrick Cantlay (3-under) on 6-under I might have spread the net but as it is I’ll pick from Snedeker, Lipsky, Fitzpatrick and Penge.
Snedeker had ridiculous, off-the-charts SG: Putting stats in round three to shoot 67. But before we get fooled into thinking he’ll never miss, a reminder that he lost strokes on the greens in round two. The veteran ranked 70th for Approach on Saturday so was clearly doing it via smoke and mirrors. He came into the event on a run of four straight missed cuts and has never broken 70 in 13 final-round attempts here. He’s not for me at 8/1.
Lipsky has won on the DP World Tour and the Asian Tour but none of those victories were in the current decade. He’s yet to bank a PGA Tour victory. The 37-year-old from California is clearly having a great week on a course where he hasn’t broken the top 30 in four visits. Short game has gotten him this far but he actually has worse Approach figures for the week than Snedeker. Again, I’ll pass at 7/1.
So I’m left with the two Englishmen, both trying to follow in the footsteps of compatriots Luke Donald (2012) and Paul Casey (2018 and 2019), who both have their names engraved on this trophy. Players Championship runner-up MATT FITZPATRICK is the logical choice having gone so close at Sawgrass while, after a few very early teething problems, MARCO PENGE is contending for a PGA Tour win for the second time in three events after holding the halfway lead at the Genesis Invitational.
Casey was a great driver of the ball and I think this comment from Fitzpatrick after round three is key: Asked about what part of his game is going to be most important on Sunday, the 2023 US Open champion said: “I think off the tee. You put the ball in play off the tee and you'll give yourself a chance going into the green. The greens are so firm you can't afford to be coming out of the rough for the second shots, just because you can't control your ball.”
Looking at the Off The Tee rankings of the top five, Fitzpatrick (10th) and Penge (13th) have driven the ball far better than Lipsky (40th), Im (49th) and Snedeker (65th). In round three, Fitzpatrick was 2nd OTT and Penge 10th. Indeed, Fitzpatrick said after his Saturday 68: “Drove the ball really well.”
Fitzpatrick has been there and done it so I’m going to make him my ‘win only’ bet at the generally available 7/2. Having been in the thick of contention but lost, elite golfers crave having an immediate shot at getting over the line next time. This represents a golden chance after his near-miss at The Players.
Penge has clearly been sprinkled with stardust and the sky really is the limit for the 27-year-old who won three times on the DP World Tour last season. For the first time in his new PGA Tour career, his entire family is with him this week. “It's nice to see my son out there on the golf course on the back nine every day and feels like it's switched me off a little bit from being so hard on myself. So, yeah, it's cool,” said Penge.
I also like this quote from him about this week’s course, Copperhead: “I think it's actually quite similar to some golf courses back in Europe. I feel like it's very similar to a golf course I won at when I played the Spanish Open and especially now with it baking up.” That course would be Club de Campo. Any merit in his comparison? There certainly is as former Valspar champions Charl Schwartzel and Retief Gooden both won there.
So it’s Fitzpatrick to win while I’ll back Penge each-way at 8/1 with three-each way places. Just back to our leader for a moment. Im is teeing it for just the third time since returning from a wrist injury. He didn’t play between October and March and the lack of competitive reps would concern me. In his two starts back he’s missed the cut at both Bay Hill and Sawgrass so this really has been unexpected. I just think it’s a leap too far.
These are the final-round tee-times (UK):
5:30pm Matt Fitzpatrick, Adrien Dumont de Chassart
5:40pm David Lipsky, Marco Penge
5:50pm Sungjae Im, Brandt Snedeker
Posted at 11:59 GMT on 22/03/26
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