Alrich Potgieter is three clear in the Nedbank Challenge, but will the pressure of contending for 'Africa's major' tell on Sunday?
Golf betting tips: Nedbank Golf Challenge
1.5pts Matthew Jordan to win the Nedbank at 8/1 (General)
1.5pts Francesco Laporta to win the Nedbank at 8/1 (General)
1pt Zalatoris and van Rooyen to win their three-balls at 4.94/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
A home player leads the Nedbank Golf Challenge by three shots from two Europeans who between them have taken part in more than 250 DP World Tour events without winning any of them. The home player is not odds-on and not even close: you can something around 6/4, with a few firms offering 13/8 and 9/5.
Perhaps the equation really is that simple and there are reasons to believe Aldrich Potgieter will rise to the challenge after a brilliant third round which saw him take over at the top and then scramble for a couple of pars to match the low round of the week.
This youngster, born in Australia but very much roared on as a South African here, has stared down every challenge in his burgeoning career. First he won the Amateur Championship, then he came through Korn Ferry Tour Q-School, then he became the youngest winner in that tour's history, then he became the youngest player to shoot 59 in that tour's history, then he earned his PGA Tour card with a brilliant up and down on the final hole of the season, when anything more would've meant missing out.
Clearly, we shouldn't underestimate this big talent, but I can't help but feel there's blowout potential here. Perhaps that's wishful thinking having had him shortlisted before concluding that 'players of his profile just don't win this tournament' and with Max Homa, four behind and tied for fourth, among the most likely beneficiaries if Potgieter does blow the tournament wide open.
But I certainly feel that of all the courses where a young powerhouse like him could so easily come badly undone, Sun City must be right up there. It's hard to think of many tee shots without disaster potential, with the first in fact among the most generous but certainly no picnic and virtually everything thereafter offering reload potential. He drove the ball brilliantly on Saturday, but might it be telling that he missed the final two fairways?
I would love to be on him at 100/1, but that's not the question here and while three-shot leaders typically merit shorter prices than 6/4, to my eye he looks very short given the circumstances, his lack of experience, and how significant an achievement it would be to win 'Africa's major' on just his third DP World Tour start. Then again, he won on his second on the Korn Ferry Tour...
As far as how best to take him on goes, with Homa on-side at 16/1 and Romain Langasque and Jordan Smith sometimes unconvincing in the mix – the former's putter went stone cold from the 13th onwards – I like the idea of keeping this nice and simple and backing those two longstanding maidens.
No doubt, many of us would've expected MATTHEW JORDAN to have won by now but I wrote in July's Open Championship profiles that I felt he might well do it before the year's end, and this does look like a good chance.
Jordan responded well to a run of bogeys which could've derailed his Nedbank bid, chipping in on the 15th and then hitting the final three greens in regulation. His form coming in was strong, with three top-10s in his previous five starts, and going close in the Open de France is potentially significant for two reasons: it's a good guide to this, and it means he has recent experience of contending to the final hole.
He was a high-class amateur in his own right and while the crowds following the final group will be desperate for Potgieter to win, that could create a lot of pressure for a leader I really do feel is vulnerable.
As for FRANCESCO LAPORTA, he's a multiple Challenge Tour winner who loves tough courses and whose game has never been better. He's by far the most accurate of this trio from the tee, no bad thing on a firming course, and is the best iron player too on balance, particularly on recent form.
Sun City has been a real test all week and his steady nature, combined with the strength of his form over the past few months, suggests to me that he'll stick around to the death. Dutching him with Jordan makes for a 7/2 shot and while there are many possible winners if Potgieter goes backwards, these two both appear ready to win.
Of course, Homa could very well defend his title from three adrift. To do so he'll need to avoid another disastrous day on the par-threes – he's joint-last of the 66 players in the field – and to play the final eight holes better, as he's seven-over for them. Nevertheless he's a class act who will expect to close in on the leader and I'll be disappointed if he can't at least land the place money.
For three-ball punters, ERIK VAN ROOYEN and WILL ZALATORIS made most appeal.
Van Rooyen is grouped with Robin Williams and Nacho Elvira and the former is now nine-over since the 12th hole on Friday, while Elvira has now played 25 rounds here without shooting 70 or better. He may not need to but is always opposable at Sun City and van Rooyen looks solid having improved with each day so far.
Zalatoris meanwhile has been solid from tee-to-green on his course debut and with Jesper Svensson and Brandon Stone both struggling to hit fairways, the classy American is strongly preferred. The double pays almost 9/2 with BoyleSports and almost 5/1 with bet365, the first two firms to price up.
Posted at 1535 GMT on 07/12/24
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