Ryan Fox can outperform most if not all of the home hopes in the RBC Canadian Open, where Mackenzie Hughes can prove pick of the locals.
Golf betting tips: Canadian Open specials
2pts Ryan Fox to be top rest of the world player at 13/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt Mackenzie Hughes to be top rest of the world player at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Hughes to be the top Canadian at 17/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Nakajima top Japanese & Vilips top Australian at 3/1 General)
A clutch of home players head the top rest of the world market for the RBC Canadian Open, but while Nick Taylor just about merits that spot, he was undeniably disappointing after a good start last week. Taylor is a classy operator with this title already on his CV, but I'd also have doubts as to just how well a long, open, soft golf course suits versus the one at which he won three years ago.
Taylor Pendrith knows every blade of grass but is struggling right now, as appears to be Sudarshan Yellamaraju, while the fact that Corey Conners is being widely dismissed in all markets is indicative of his struggles this year. Conners ought to have been favourited by conditions at Muirfield Village last week, where two accurate, quality iron players featured in a play-off, but was most disappointing.
With an unconvincing Rico Hoey and shorter hitters Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Tom Kim forming part of the next wave, I really like the look of RYAN FOX at a general 12/1. The defending champion has event form figures of 7-1 and clearly loved this golf course from the moment he saw it, earning maximum reward for taking it on from the start.
There appeared to be some kind of Wentworth connection to strengthen the case for this former BMW PGA champion, whose only previous start in the Canadian Open saw him finish seventh behind Robert MacIntyre. I could easily see him putting up a stout defence of this title and the fact he very nearly won the Dunhill Links back-to-back has to bode well.
Fox is also dropping in grade as he's not played below Signature Event or major championship level since March. Despite that he arrives with four good performances in his last five, three of them powered by strong tee-to-green numbers, and he'll have enjoyed seeing the putts go in at last in the Memorial Tournament.
He's about 6/1 for a top-10 finish and that may well do in this market, so at double the price he's selected along with my pick of the Canadian challengers, MACKENZIE HUGHES.
Tenth place at Colonial represented an ideal preparation for Hughes and he's been a regular contender in this event. He'll enjoy the space off the tee and that plus an electric short-game could see him go a long way, though of course it would be handy were his approach work to improve again.
He's been trimmed by several firms on Tuesday but at 14/1 and upwards offers plenty of value in a market which isn't as deep as it may first appear, with stacks of out-of-form Canadians, an unconvincing South African challenge, and little offered from Asia too.
Hughes is also a bet at the general 7/1 and standout 17/2 to be the best of the Canadians, given that he brings with him the strongest recent form-line and a proven track record in this event.
There is one at a bigger price I considered and that's KEITA NAKAJIMA, but he's preferred at short odds to be the top Japanese player.
Nakajima has found form lately and is starting to hit the ball really well, with the putter now supplementing that quality ball-striking DP World Tour fans have come to expect.
He's gone 13-MC-28 since the Zurich Classic and while a fitness issue in the spring means he's not yet played enough rounds to count towards PGA Tour statistics, note that he'd rank inside the top 10 for strokes-gained approach and around 40th in distance of all drives, confirming that he's sneaky long for one of his stature.
Rivals Takumi Kanaya and Kensei Hirata are the opposite: genuinely short hitters who I can see struggling around a 7,400-yard par 70. Neither arrives in form, though Kanaya's killer short-game gets him through to plenty of weekends. Hirata, who takes up about 30% of the book, has missed six of his last nine and I expect him to struggle.
Nakajima has won the three-way head-to-head twice in three starts now and that underlines his return to form. At odds-against, he looks rock-solid whether you want to back him on his own, or double up with KARL VILIPS to be the pick of three Aussies.
One of them is Declan O'Donovan and it says a lot about the form of Cam Davis that I'd rate the former a bigger threat. He's been playing very nicely back home in Australia and has settled in nicely to pro life, his amateur highlight arguably lifting the Canadian Amateur title last summer hence his place in this field.
Still, it's a massive step up in grade and Vilips shouldn't need to do much to beat him and Davis, the latter currently the very worst player on the PGA Tour. That may sound harsh, but Davis is losing over two strokes every single round to the field average and four (i.e. 16 per four-round tournament) to an elite golfer. He's in a mess and that continued when he shot +3 in US Open qualifying on Monday, missing by 10.
Davis, whose record in Canada is also poor, will likely miss the cut by several shots and I'd expect O'Donovan to join him, meaning we don't require much from Vilips. That's good, as he's not been at his best, but he's about two shots a day better than Davis right now and looks banker material having beaten Davis every time he's made the cut this season.
Overall the head-to-head reads 7-3 but based on what we've seen so far, all we need to avoid is a shocker from Vilips. Here's hoping.
Posted at 16:20 BST on 09/06/26
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