Sam Burns is two clear heading into the final round of the Open Championship, where Tommy Fleetwood is buried among the pack.
The Open betting tips: Final round
2pts Burns to win the Open and James to win the Corales Puntacana at 13/2 (General)
2pts Rahm, Schauffele, Aberg and Burns to win their two-balls at 8/1 (General)
What was anticipated to be one of the great days of Open golf and the beginning of a historic weekend in the end failed to materialise. It's no slight on the supremely talented players who made their way to the top of the leaderboard, headed by US Open runner-up Sam Burns, but he does rather stand out. Behind him, the biggest names in the sport all flattered to deceive.
The dream is still just about alive for Tommy Fleetwood, but for much of the third round he appeared on course for a much more prominent position than ninth place and five behind. As it happens, that's precisely the scenario Phil Mickelson faced in 2013 before going on to win comfortably in the end, one year after Ernie Els had come from six back but with just four players in front of him. Still, Fleetwood needs help.
Scottie Scheffler finds himself six behind his friend and tied for 11th – nobody has won this from outside the top 10 this century. Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry and Hideki Matsuyama are other major champions alongside him and each is in need of a miracle or something close to it. With the weather again set to be ideal and their tee-times not significantly earlier than the leader, the odds are stacked against them all.
If there is hope for these players it's that we've seen three rounds of 62 over the past two days, including one which saw Ryan Fox go from game nine on Saturday to the final group on Sunday. Fox began the third round eight shots behind and narrowed that to two, but it's worth reiterating that he teed off about five hours before the leaders. Now that things have spread out a little more, those who have the potential advantage of better scoring conditions appear to be too far back.
Sam Burns leads by two.
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2026
His third shot into the par-5 17th leaves him a short putt for birdie, which he taps in to get to -10. pic.twitter.com/wKP7xAjOQz
That said there is one other factor which makes a come-from-behind winner slightly more probable than history alone might suggest and it's the names separating Burns in first from the likes of Ludvig Aberg and Bryson DeChambeau in sixth. All four have won big titles including on the PGA Tour, but none has so much as sniffed winning a major. Among them, only Ryan Gerard can boast a top-10 finish at the very highest level.
Should this quartet find the occasion is too much to handle and at best stand still, then it would only require Burns to struggle to blow the tournament wide open, to give hope to Fleetwood and his fans, the world number one, and really anyone from around two-under on the leaderboard. But watching Burns produce the best 36 holes in major history, the American undeniably in the form of his life, it's hard to envisage him shooting much more than 70.
From 14/1 when he finished his second round, Burns is now around the 5/4 mark to go one better than in last month's US Open. This is the player whose own mum had told the media that he would be withdrawing from the Open with his second baby due. The surprise journey, leaving behind his newborn, didn't seem worthwhile after an opening 73, but he's 13-under since then and has been outstanding. His iron play is much improved, few putt as well as him, and as the one member of the top five who has contended for a major, he appears to have all bases covered.
Those on at a pre-tournament 40/1 – a price which now looks enormous given that he ranks sixth in the world with DataGolf – are entitled to feel confident, but this fabulous sport often has a trick up its sleeve so maybe one of those without experience in this situation will in fact thrive. Ryan Fox, who beat Burns to the Canadian Open in a play-off last summer, could be that someone while Si Woo Kim has always had the talent to become the second South Korean man to win a major championship.
Kim enjoys the potential benefit of the penultimate group rather than the final one but looking at the numbers, it's so difficult to get away from Burns. One of the very best putters in the game leads the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and everything, from the experience of going so close at Shinnecock last month to the baby at home to the improvements he's made technically, says this is his time. I think he'll win.
Given that lack of experience from those closest to Burns, I thought the most interesting market would be betting without the leader. This could feasibly be won in around nine-under and it's 3/1 the field, with Kim favourite. Interestingly, he's 8/11 to shoot 68 or better with bet365 and if he does so, that's a very strong target. In other words, I actually felt the market if anything underestimated the leaders rather than those further back, with Kim and Gerard (8/1) the two who appeal most.
Si Woo Kim has a share of the lead.
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2026
Moving day is heating up at Royal Birkdale. pic.twitter.com/5p7Ou1W0fL
Returning to Burns, prices around the 7/1 mark that he obliges along with Benjamin James in the PGA Tour event taking place in the Dominican Republic make plenty of appeal. James, a recent graduate of PGA Tour University who has been seriously impressive both before and after turning pro, is two behind Todd Clements and two ahead of the chasing pack.
Clements impressed when winning the Czech Masters three summers ago but he's without a top-10 finish in almost a year and this is a big ask playing for a PGA Tour card which would change his life. Right now, he's not even sure of DP World Tour membership for next year so it's a huge day and I do fear that it might prove too much for him.
If that's the case, anything sub-70 from James could make for a winning total and as he graduated PGA Tour University in first place, he's already exempt through 2027. That might give him a much greater sense of freedom and while not for a second would I argue that the task of winning for the first time as a professional is ever straightforward, everything about the make-up of this leaderboard says this is a golden opportunity.
Best two-ball bets
Driver usage went up again in round three as players gradually come round to the realisation that attacking this golf course is the best way to go about things. The lowest round came from Fox, a long-hitting, aggressive player, followed by Burns, then Fox's playing partner Xander Schauffele was next along with Eric Cole (not a long driver, for balance) and powerhouse Jose Ballester. Five of the six lowest scores came from long drivers.
We may well see much the same and there are a few early mismatches, while anyone alert enough to be betting in the low final round market before it's suspended should be looking for that profile and an early start. The three 62s have come an 09:03, 09:25 and 10:30, where greens which have been watered overnight are more receptive than they'll become by the middle of the afternoon.
My four selections though come from the afternoon, beginning with JON RAHM. It's been an immensely frustrating display from the Spaniard, typified by his drive sailing out of bounds on the first hole of round three. Despite that he's still third in the tee-to-green stats and he can finish with a rattle to beat Shane Lowry, who ranks worse in every department bar putting.
SCHAUFFELE is in with Cole and we have to respect that the latter has gone 64-66 since an opening 76, but this is a weak driver whose game is extremely volatile versus arguably the most reliable major championship golfer in the field. Schauffele is looking good for a 19th consecutive top-30 finish at this level having fought to make the cut on Friday.
Among the more significant groups, I really like LUDVIG ABERG and BURNS. We often see leaders priced generously on the basis they're under more pressure but let's not mistake that Fox is playing in the final group of a major. It's not like he's in for an easy time and I do wonder if the slower pace may not help the fastest player in the field.
Regardless, Burns is just a tiny fraction below even-money and were this any other scenario he'd be more like an 8/11 chance. Yet he's the one with stacks of experience in majors now, including from the final group, and if either of them is to fold I think Fox is by far the most likely.
Finally, Aberg also has an experience edge over Lucas Herbert, who began to get very wayward over the closing holes of round three. It was notable that he kept missing to the left over the final hour and the course of four or five holes. Aberg, who is becoming a habitual major contender, was four strokes better on Saturday and something similar is anticipated.
It's 2/1 the double for those who are either too late for Rahm and Schauffele or would rather take the two matches more likely to feature heavily in television coverage. Sometimes, that doesn't include the final group come the back nine as both players struggle, but my expectation is that once they're walking down the last, there's a camera fixed on Burns.
Posted at 06:50 BST on 19/07/26
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