Shane Lowry and Brooks Koepka can team up to capture the Zurich Classic of New Orleans according to Ben Coley.
- Only pairs event on the PGA Tour calendar
- Fourballs and foursomes over 72 holes
- Fitzpatrick brothers head the market
Golf betting tips: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
5pts win Shane Lowry & Brooks Koepka at 14/1 (General)
3pts win Michael Thorbjornsen & Karl Vilips at 20/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Sam Stevens & Zach Bauchou at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Austin Smotherman & Andrew Putnam at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans isn't for everyone – and that includes the players. Sandwiched between two major championships, without the boosted prize fund of a Signature Event and with a run of those to come, it's understandable that so few of the game's elite want to be sweating it out in New Orleans with a PGA Championship to prepare for.
Still, this is an undeniably weak renewal of an event which features names like Rory McIlroy, Cam Smith, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm on its roll-of-honour, and it's possible that the likelihood of an upset is increased. That said, for all the assumed volatility of a pairs format featuring two rounds of foursomes at a tricky, hazardous course, six of eight renewals so far have gone to one of the market principals.
That includes last year, when Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin were about seventh in the betting, which was headed by McIlroy and Shane Lowry, defending their title at just 7/2. Yes, they won it at the expense of one of the rank outsider pairings in 2024 and we've snatched some place money with 200/1 shots David Lipsky and Dylan Wu, but the best players are at a bigger advantage than the market assumes, if you ask me.
That looks especially true this time. I was surprised we're betting 12/1 the favourites when you only have to get to about 50/1 for players who might need to win this to hold any hope of playing on the PGA Tour next year. With no McIlroy, no Collin Morikawa, no Jake Knapp, no Robert MacIntyre, no Sepp Straka and no Hojgaard twins, this looks winnable and my focus will be on cracking the top of the market first and foremost.
As for what we're after, there isn't a set formula but at least one big hitter and one good putter is a start. The latter point has been clear from the very first renewal, but more recently the value of long driving has become difficult to argue against. Players like Martin Trainer, Ryan Brehm and Patrick Fishburn have contended for this, as have Knapp and those Hojgaard twins, while Griffin's speed gains were part of the story last year.
Recent form has also been a good if obvious pointer, never better illustrated than by Novak and Griffin. Novak had lost a play-off to Justin Thomas just days earlier, while Griffin already had three top-10s in a season which would end with three titles and a Ryder Cup debut. Even Nick Hardy and Davis Riley had both been hinting at something good and foursomes does tend to expose fragile confidence at some stage.
Finally, pairings who are thrown together have generally struggled to match those who are more organic. There's some bias built in here as the better players have generally seen this as a chance to pair up with a friend, as McIlroy and Lowry have done and as Cantlay and Schauffele also did. Still, to me the fact that the better players are both more experienced in pairs golf and have a partner they know only heightens their advantage.
With all of this in mind I'll begin with SHANE LOWRY and BROOKS KOEPKA, who can topple the Fitzpatrick brothers who shade favouritism.
This will be the first time two players team up on the back of individual wins and Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick must be respected, but despite the latter's progress over the past six months I have a hard time rating them superior to two in-form major champions with strong form in this event.
Lowry of course won it with McIlroy but he'd been 13th with Ian Poulter and 28th with Padraig Harrington before that, and it makes sense that he'd be effective in this. Not only is he a Ryder Cup player and the kind of golfer who makes for a good partner, but his record at Sawgrass and Harbour Town underlines why a Dye course like TPC Louisiana suits him so well.
He's also an infrequent winner for one who consistently features inside the world's top 30 so we ought to be able to take motivation on trust, particularly now as he's blown two great chances this year, and bombed out completely on Sunday at the Masters. That was such a blow that he had to send an apologetic text to McIlroy as he couldn't bring himself to spend the night celebrating with him.
Having putted well last week and generally looked better with that club lately, Lowry looks a strong partner for powerhouse Koepka, who managed to finish fifth in this with his brother, Chase, way back in 2017. That was months before Koepka won his first major and as we've seen since, his brother, while talented, is not up to PGA Tour standard.
The same pair were 22nd a couple of years later when struggling in foursomes, so this is a massive upgrade in partner for Koepka, whose form reads 9-13-18-MC-12. Versus the old, majors-only version I think we're seeing someone who is absolutely focused every time he tees it up, and his desire to compete this week ought to have been solidified by having to sit out the RBC Heritage as first alternate.
Koepka's putting would be a bit of a worry but he has two good performances in his last four and things do appear to be improving there, while his long-game looks menacing. These two ought to have a big chance if they can get off to the requisite fast start in fourballs and I'd make them favourites to be the best scorers in foursomes, which so often plays a key role in determining the outcome of this tournament.
It's my strong belief that the value lies with the strongest teams this week so next up it's MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN and KARL VILIPS.
These two friends first met at Stanford where they were college teammates and now live in the same area of Jacksonville, which gives them both access to Dye's most iconic course, TPC Sawgrass. That local knowledge helped Thorbjornsen contend for The Players last month, while Vilips won the Junior Players once upon a time.
Thorbjornsen has more Dye form courtesy of fourth place in the Travelers and both have shown flashes of form at Harbour Town, but the only place we really need to look for confirmation that Louisiana suits is last year's leaderboard. These two paired up as rookies and finished fourth, having been right in the mix until Vilips found water off the 17th tee on Sunday.
Returning for a second try, Thorbjornsen has taken big steps forward since, contending until the death in Phoenix, contending again at Sawgrass, and admittedly struggling when in the mix in Houston with a Masters spot on the line. Having come up short, he was back in action last week when 33rd at the less-than-suitable Harbour Town, where he closed with an excellent 65 which only one player bettered.
Importantly, Thorbjornsen putted well on Sunday after three rough days with that club but Vilips does provide us with a more reliable putting profile regardless, while both are long drivers. Thorbjornsen in fact is more than that: he's one of the very best drivers on the PGA Tour because he marries a high level of accuracy with that length, hence he's sixth in total driving for the season so far.
With Vilips having shown a bit more lately including when finishing alongside Thorbjornsen last week, these two are narrowly preferred to Johnny Keefer and Michael Brennan. They made my shortlist at 22/1 after Keefer showed a bit more with the putter last time, but he's been largely disappointing of late. Brennan's form has improved but he too is prone to putting badly and they may not hole enough to keep up early on.
Taylor Moore and Wyndham Clark bring a combination of power and putting when at their best and the latter has looked closer to it lately, but former college teammates SAM STEVENS and ZACH BAUCHOU are preferred.
Stevens is a player I like a lot and I'll be disappointed if he's not won or gone very close to winning by the end of the year. Long but not wild, improved with his approaches and very capable on and around the greens, he's developing into a potentially world-class player albeit it's taken a little longer than some would've expected.
He still has more to do but 24th in the Masters following fifth in Houston was another step towards where I think he'll get and while poor at Harbour Town, I can forgive him that. Stevens still hit good approaches, the big area of improvement over the past six or so months, and there was probably a bit of a comedown after sneaking into the field at Augusta, where he was making his debut.
He has form in this event having been fourth with Paul Barjon and 24th with Max McGreevy, and Bauchou represents a likeable foil. He's a broadly similar player in that he has a rounded game, just with less power, and for the most part I've been impressed with his start to life on the PGA Tour.
Last time out he bounced back from a couple of missed cuts to be 28th in Texas, where the putter came back to life, and I don't mind the fact that his best golf so far came at Dye's PGA West in California. He should be at ease alongside a longtime friend and former teammate and with Stevens' past exploits here in mind, they look lively candidates at 33/1.
No doubt there will be one or two teams who surprise us all but I can't make coherent cases for any beyond Vince Whaley and Greyson Sigg in the betting, these two having been last off my list at about 66/1.
They could certainly form a nice partnership as Sigg is a fairways-and-greens ball-striker who has always looked good enough to establish himself on the PGA Tour, where Whaley has taken his game up a level since coming back from injury and is among the best putters around.
While Whaley's form here doesn't leap off the page, he made the cut and finished 26th alongside the limited Anders Albertson last year, and has been in the mix with another player who never really made it on the PGA Tour in Michael Gligic.
Sigg is a step up on both and while his performance on the Korn Ferry Tour last week was disappointing, it was at a new course under tough conditions. He'll be more comfortable at TPC Louisiana, where he has a top-10 finish alongside Chesson Hadley and may find Whaley an equally good wingman.
All that being said I felt the price was short enough versus a plainly stronger team in ANDREW PUTNAM and AUSTIN SMOTHERMAN, who have contended at a high level this year and aren't that much further up the betting.
Putnam contended here alongside Michael Kim in 2018, leading at halfway and playing in the final group on Sunday. He returns with his approach play excellent and with two top-fives this year, including at the aforementioned PGA West.
He's not got much of a record at Harbour Town so to produce more elite iron play there last week goes down as encouraging and having played with the likes of Scott Harrington, Joe Highsmith and Beau Hossler in recent years, he might find more success with Smotherman.
These two are a cover-all-bases pairing as Smotherman is a long, brilliant driver whose short-game can be an issue. He has a bit of positive form in the event having bagged a top-25 with Mac Meissner during his rookie season having previously missed the cut with Harry Higgs, but returns now far more comfortable with his game and his standing on the PGA Tour.
We saw him finish 13th at Sawgrass and eighth in the AmEx for more handy Dye form and he was second at PGA National, a somewhat similar course aesthetically. He wasn't quite so good last week but Harbour Town undermines his driving prowess and he can bounce back quickly with a partner whose best putting would make them look a formidable duo.
These are two players who both could've won this season and in a lopsided field, 40/1-plus looks big.
Posted at 12:00 BST on 21/04/26
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